Independent Investigation of Truth

World Order Trader Release

2011-12-23T23:40:00.008-05:00

The World Order Trader™ (WOTrader) platform was released today for beta testing. Interested persons may download WOTrader here. The free download is a .zip file. After unpacking, run WOTrader, which may provide an additional way to express perceptions on how well elected officials in the Baha'i administration are doing their job and to gain experience and improve skills in trading financial instruments without financial risk. The WOTrader About option in its Help menu provides the email address of the author if you need further help to start trading with WOTrader. Thanks to all who wish to help in testing this new trading platform and the new, on-line, international World Order Exchange™.
© 2011 James J Keene

World Order Trader Preview

2011-12-17T04:05:00.014-05:00

Independent recently introduced the concept of the World Order Composite Index, which inspired work to establish an on-line, international World Order Exchange™ (WOE). WOE is now open for beta testing. No funds are required to participate in testing, only an internet connection. The platform for on-line traders anywhere in the world is previewed with screen shots in Figs. 1 and 2. The free World Order Trader™ (WOT) platform may be downloaded here. WOT details and implementation plans are presented.
Fig 1: World Order Trader (left)

The WOT interface to WOE was designed to be user friendly and to allow market participants to acquire trading skills without any financial risk, with two objectives. First, the system requires testing. Second, price action may provide a sentiment reading regarding how well the members of the Universal House of Justice (UHJ), National Spiritual Assemblies (NSAs) and Local Spiritual Assemblies (LSAs) are perceived to be doing their jobs, in the WOH, WON and WOL indexes respectively.

With successful testing and sufficient interest, traders may open funded accounts for profit (or loss) and WOE seats for market makers may also be purchased and traded.
Fig 2: World Order Trader (right)

Main Menu
System in the main menu (Fig. 1, upper left) provides a Log On option. After the free WOT platform is downloaded and run, current quotes for WOE instruments are displayed.

The first trader task is to Log On. After entering a user name, which may be an alias, and password, WOE automatically opens a trader acct and funds it with $1,000,000.00 dollars for practice trading during the testing period.

After Log On, the trader's account number is displayed along with other information described below.

Prices and Volume
WOE instruments are the World Order Composite Index (WOC), World Order House (WOH), World Order Nationals (WON) and World Order Locals (WOL). The WOC index is the average of its three components: WOH, WON and WOL.

If the WOE market is open, quotes and current bid/ask prices are updated. Thus, the public can monitor trends in trader perceptions of performance by the UHJ, NSAs and LSAs. Rising prices may indicate increased confidence or its expectation; decreasing prices may indicate perceived unsatisfactory performance or its expectation in the future.

For example, if the WOC index is bought, to close the trade, the shares must be sold at some future time. Hence, buying may represent expectation that confidence or performance will increase, so that the shares may be sold at a profit in the future. In contrast, the WOC index may be sold with the expectation that it can be bought at a lower price later for a profit.

In Fig. 1, Last shows the price of the last trade, with background highlight for up ticks (green) and down ticks (red). Change and Percent change show the difference of the Last price and the closing price on the previous trading day. For the current trading day, the highest (High) and lowest (Low) trade prices are listed. New highs are background highlighted with green and new lows, with red (e.g., WOH low in Fig. 1).

The Bid price is the highest offer to buy 100 or more shares. Likewise, the Ask price is the lowest price of existing offers to sell 100 or more shares. Open is the price of the first trade in a daily session. Volume (Fig. 2) is the number of shares changing hands during the day's trading session.

Order Form
The Buy and Sell buttons place WOE trading orders, if the user has logged on and therefore has an account. One may edit the number of shares and the price. The symbol (WOC, WOH, WON or WOL) is selected with a combobox (showing WOC in Fig.1). Another combobox provides selection of trade type -- Market, Limit or Stop.

Market orders are executed immediately by WOE market makers at the current Bid/Ask prices. That is, a Buy Market order results in a trade at the Ask price and a Sell Market order results in a trade at the current Bid price. Typically, Bid/Ask prices are changing continuously during a trading session. There is no requirement to edit price before placing a market order.

A Limit order may be executed only at the price specified or better. For example, a Buy Limit order will not be executed and remain as an Open Order until a matching Ask price is at or below the Limit order price. Similarly, Limit Sell orders remain as Open Orders until a Bid price is at or above the order's price. In each case, the Limit order may result in a trade at the specified price or at times at a more favorable price (higher for Sell orders or lower for Buy orders).

A Stop order may be placed to prevent excessive losses for existing positions or to initiate new positions if price moves to the Stop order price. For example, Fig. 2 shows a long WOH position (100 Shares) with average purchase price 99.83. A Sell Stop order at 98.40 would result in liquidating part or all of this position if price action fell decisively below the current daily low price (98.48 in Fig. 1). A Buy Stop order may be similarly used in an inverse fashion to limit losses on previous sale positions, if prices rise excessively.

Other order types may include MOC (Market on Close) used by many traders.

Orders may be placed to be effective only for the current trading session (Day in Fig. 1) or GTC (good 'til cancel). Also, traders may select AON or not for an order. AON (all or none) means that the trade will be executed only if a matching order exists for the same or greater number of shares. For smaller orders, market makers will usually take the other side of the trade. AON for very large number of shares may delay a trade until a matching order of the specified size exists. For example, for buyers and sellers "in size", it may be preferable for traders to build positions in smaller steps.

Open Orders and Today's Trades
The Open Orders box (Fig. 1) lists orders that have not yet resulted in a trade. An open order may be cancelled by right-clicking it. WOE will cancel the order if it has not been already executed before receipt of the cancel request.

The Executions box lists trades completed in the current session. This provides an account statement, which is saved to disk in statement files which may be viewed providing a complete off-line record of transactions.

Long and Short Positions
Current long and short positions and their current market unrealized profit or loss are continuously updated. Fig. 2 shows a long position of 100 Shares of WOH at the average price of 99.83. There are two short positions in WOC and WON indicated by the minus sign for number of Shares. If one sells more Shares than one owns, a naked short position is established. Short positions are partially or fully "covered" by buying shares, resulting in a realized profit or loss.

The $Profit column shows the current unrealized profit or loss of a position with positive values being unrealized profit and negative values being unrealized loss. These values are expressed in dollars ($Profit) and percent (%Profit).

Account Status and Buying Power
The Account box (Fig. 2) displays current account equity (EQ) and unrealized profit/loss (MV). As described above, new accounts with no trades will show one million dollars equity, which is equivalent to cash balance.

If the account has existing market positions (Shares not equal to zero), current unrealized profit/loss is the sum of $Profit column. Hence, account equity is the sum of cash, unrealized profit/loss of present positions and cash collateral described below. Current unrealized profit/loss and collateral to back current positions depend on current prices. Therefore, equity follows market activity if positions in the market are not zero.

When prices move to favor current positions, unrealized profit increases, and vice versa. Fewer and smaller positions relate to reduced risk of loss. By definition, available cash is account equity minus required collateral.

WOE computes required collateral for each position, which equals the number of shares times the Last price, for both long and short positions. This cash collateral backs existing positions, so WOE can perform as a clearing house to guarantee payment of profit to trader accounts.

Given the dependence on price, collateral amount may change during a WOE session as prices may change. The main significance is to determine buying power (BP in Fig. 1 status bar), defined as total equity minus collateral amount. WOE accepts new orders which would create new or larger positions only if BP is greater than the cash collateral amount of the order submitted (by clicking the Buy or Sell buttons).

To summarize:
Equity = Cash + PL + Margin
Margin = sum of abs(Shares) x Last price
BP = Equity - Margin

where PL is unrealized profit/loss, Margin is required collateral and BP is buying power.

News Headlines
To supplement official news sources related to world order issues from Baha'i and other news agencies, News Headlines provides a means for each trader to report relevant news and commentary. In the edit box below, text lines may be entered; the Send button transmits the text to WOE, which then distributes it to all on-line traders. Hence, participants might become better informed of potentially market-moving news.

Each text line is tagged with the source account number (19 and 217 in Fig. 1). Hence, the credibility of each news source may be evaluated by traders.

Probably some filtering or screening of these text postings of news or commentary will be needed. For example, some traders (account numbers) may develop a reputation as reliable news sources while, alas, others might have this access to News Headlines disabled if necessary to preserve the integrity of distributed information.

Platform Status
The status bar displays general platform status including Market Open or Closed, buying power (BP), bytes received (Rx) and transmitted (Tx) and UTC time. WOE contemplates that its market might be open 20 to 22 hours of each day to facilitate participation by traders in all time zones.

WOE Executive Committee
WOE may be contacted by text-only email to keenej_at_cwdom.dm. Prior to public release of World Order Trader, one may join the very first beta testers by emailing the author, thereby receiving the earliest beta testing versions as attachments to return email.

Summary and Conclusions
WOT and WOE software beta testing may begin shortly, with announcement that the WOT platform may be freely downloaded. If there is sufficient interest and testing success, WOE functionality both as a poll of sentiment about world order issues and as a financial exchange might develop further in steps. One option would be to charge a small fee per trade to provide income to WOE to defray its cost to provide its on-line exchange service. If the fee was very small (pennies per trade), almost everybody could afford to trade and the value of index price trends as an indicator that might favorably affect the Baha'i election process might be enhanced. Depending on public interest, further developments might be warranted, such as defining WOE seats for market makers and implementing a transition from "practice accounts" to real accounts funded with real dollars. Also, the news and commentary feature might develop into a valued, independent news agency based on grass-roots reporting.
© 2011 James J Keene

Science and the Baha'i Faith

2011-11-30T16:57:00.031-05:00

In reader mail, one correspondent asks "how Baha'is think religion and science are compatible? What is the Baha'i conception of science?" This reader cited the Wikipedia article -- "Baha'i Faith and Science", which is a good introduction to the subject. It provides much detail beginning with

A fundamental principle of the Bahá'í Faith is the harmony of religion and science. Bahá'í scripture asserts that true science and true religion can never be in conflict. `Abdu'l-Bahá, the son of the founder of the religion, stated that religion without science leads to superstition and that science without religion leads to materialism. He also admonished that true religion must conform to the conclusions of science.

The reader was specifically concerned if the Baha'i writings about human evolution imply a "creationist" as opposed to a strictly Darwinian theory. In my opinion, this is a pseudo issue, not a real dichotomy from either scientific or religious viewpoints. Major results are (1) 'Abdu'l-Baha's statements about human evolution are not necessarily inconsistent with concepts in contemporary biological research and (2) the principle of the harmony of science and religion provides for update of Baha'i scripture on science topics.

Let us consider several themes which may help Baha'is and others navigate such questions on the relationship between science and religion.

Independent investigation of truth is the title of this journal and is typically listed as a major principle of the Baha'i Faith. To make a long story short, nobody really knows the full truth in either science or religion, else there would be no need to continue investigating. In this process, both science and religion are part of experience and people use working hypotheses.

A working hypothesis is our best guess at truth and is used based on faith in its probable correctness in both religion and science. For example, "God exists" is classed as a religious belief and "objects in our physical world are composed of a much smaller number of elementary constituents" may be classed as a scientific belief. Among many definitions of God provided by Baha'i founder, Baha'u'llah, is the "unknowable essence". On the science side of the ledger, the discovery of compounds composed of elements whose atoms are composed of elementary particles -- proton, neutron and electron, naturally leads to the question of the composition of these particles. In this example, science and religion converge both seeking the most fundamental "essence" of our world.

The "Tablet of the true seeker", written by Baha'u'llah, outlines essentials for investigators and the investigation process itself applicable to both science and religion. Beyond many similarities between scientific and religious spheres of human experience, some differences may be considered.

The scientific method emphasizes sensory experience, the inputs from our sensory organs, extended by various measurement instruments. On the other hand, religious experience may be more subjective, based more on intuition and expressed with vocabulary and concepts referring to less tangible aspects of that experience. This distinction is not mutually exclusive. Good investigators in science may use a lot of intuition and in religion use their senses, as in witnessing an important or momentous event or in using controlled experimental design to test the effects of prayer and the like.

The Wikipedia article cited above itemizes some quotations from Baha'i scripture -- defined as the authenticated writings of Baha'u'llah and 'Abdu'l-Baha. In many cases, the text suggests a sort of prediction or statement of scientific truth. While many of these passages might be viewed as remarkable, caution is advised in all cases since much of their interpretation depends on how the vocabulary used is defined. One may argue that this is a major factor in the human evolution pseudo issue discussed further below.

Scientists use operational definitions of key terms or variables in a research project. That is, a term is defined by how it is measured. For example, intelligence may be defined as number of correct answers on an exam. A free neutron may be defined as a count by a scintillation counter instrument. Motivation may be defined as number of responses of an experimental animal to obtain a reward like a food pellet. A disadvantage of using operational definitions is that they may not really measure the intended concept (known as the validity of the measurement), which can lead to erroneous conclusions in scientific reports. However, explicit operational definitions clarify how the terminology might best be understood.

Concerning definitions of key terms in scientific fields, the general public and non-specialists typically do not know precise definitions of key words and venture into territory where terms are ill-defined or even defined differently, by implication, at different times and places. As a result, false dichotomies and conclusions can abound.

The so-called human evolution issue may qualify as one of these instances. In this context, it might be emphasized that 'Abu'l-Baha was primarily a religious figure, center of the Baha'i community from 1892 to 1920, not a trained scientist or necessarily fully versed in the use of terms in science in those years. Indeed, during most of this period, he was a prisoner in Aka, Palestine, then controlled by the Ottomans.

Thus, when 'Abdu'l-Baha eventually had the opportunity to travel to Europe and the United States, one can be fairly certain that all of his statements were intended to promote the development of the Baha'i Faith and understanding of his listeners. On the other hand, some writers in recent years may err with assumptions that not only did 'Abdu'l-Baha have some mysterious or supernatural access to all knowledge, but that he used terms intending the same meaning as might be assumed today after about 100 years of scientific advances. Recall that scientists consider knowledge as our best working hypothesis, hopefully a useful approximation of the truth, a body of information subject to development and polishing over time.

A good example might be the word "species". Following numerous passages in his father's writing, 'Abdu'l-Baha reportedly emphasized several differences between the human being and animals, obviously confirmed by modern biology or by common sense. But today biologists consider homo sapiens as a species of animal, which might appear to some unversed observers to be in conflict with the ideas 'Abdu'l-Baha was trying to convey. However, the very definition of species depends on noteworthy qualitative and quantitative differences between populations of individuals, in agreement with the ideas expressed by 'Abdu'l-Baha. Perhaps the vocabulary used is somewhat different between then and now. Further, 'Abdu'l-Baha's objective was clearly different. That is, he was introducing Baha'i ideas often in a foreign language and in foreign countries, not submitting a research paper to the modern scientific journal Nature. If done today, he obviously would have formulated many of these ideas in appropriate contemporary terms.

Next, 'Abdu'l-Baha reportedly suggested a sort of parallel evolution with the notion that humans were always human or destined to be, even though the physical form of the species (to use the modern term) changed over time as seen both in observations of evolution of the species as well as in embryological development of each individual. On the other hand, to the lay person, this picture may seem to differ from more simplistic notions that humans evolved from some past species of primate or common ancestor of one or more present primates.

This was called a pseudo issue above. For one thing, 'Abdu'l-Baha's concept is more in agreement with modern biology than the simplistic human-from-past-primate image. Let us step through some relevant ideas and data.

First, biologists group similar present species by many criteria such as morphology, number of chromosomes and more recently by DNA or gene similarities. This sort of analysis is typically statistical meaning that some groupings can be by chance alone, not due to an evolutionary relationship. Similar analysis may also be used to trace backward in time DNA similarities with the hope of further establishing that present species A (e.g., humans) might have evolved from past individuals of species B (e.g., another primate). In some cases, DNA may be recovered from the remains of individuals that lived in the past, which provides a great opportunity to conduct similar analyses.

This research is not inconsistent with 'Abdu'l-Baha's statements, which might be stated using more modern terminology as follows:

1. Present humans (species A) evolved from a past individual A'.
2. Other present primates (species B) evolved from a past individual B'.

These two statements say that species A and B have different or separate lines of descent over a defined time interval. The options become more complex when lines of descent might follow a common track for a period, might converge and might diverge.

This representation of 'Abdu'l-Baha's comments on the subject appears to be fully consistent with analyses mentioned above to trace species development. Indeed, the general objective is to describe past individuals A' and B'. The default assumption is the most likely research result that A' and B' are different individuals. A less likely, but interesting result could suggest that A' and B' might be the same individual (aka common ancestor), after which the lines of descent diverged. In short, about a century ago, 'Abdu'l-Baha participated in drawing the outline and articulating fundamental premises of modern advanced biological research in evolution.

It is entirely possible in a given prehistoric period, that A' and B' are different past individuals. However, it is also possible that A' and B' were the same individual -- a so-called common ancestor, but some mutation or other event split a single species into two. No doubt decades of further species DNA analysis will be required to favor one of these two possibilities in a particular time-frame, hypothetically going all the way back to single-celled individuals in the oceans.

Whatever of the two possibilities is most supported by the data, 'Abdu'l-Baha's basic logic remains intact, namely that past individuals of present humans may be viewed as steps in "human" evolutionary development, just as past individuals of (other) animal species may be viewed as steps in their "animal" evolutionary development.

In summary, it may be fair to say that 'Abu'l-Baha's conception of the subject is not inconsistent with modern biology. Indeed, it appears to be remarkably prescient, being a more sophisticated analysis than the more crude idea that present species A evolved from present species B. If conventional thinking among biologists is accepted, one might wonder why there is any controversy at all about the text on this particular subject in 'Abdu'l-Baha's addresses and writings.

The logic is simple. Imagine a photo of a family showing a grandchild and the two grandparents. In the photo is a young dog and its two grandparent dogs. We may say as 'Abdu'l-Baha did, "The human grandchild has grandparents who are also human; the grandchild dog has grandparents who are also dogs." One does not have to be an expert to understand the logic in these simple statements. We may add, "Even though the grandparents of the human look different, we can still think of them as human. Likewise, we can think of the grandparents of the dog as also being dogs. In short, as far as line of descent is concerned, the human in the photo descended from humans and the dog descended from dogs." A child can grasp it.

Playing with word definitions may be a major factor in manufacturing evolution non-issues. For example, among modern biologists, there is not a single universally accepted definition of such a basic concept as a species. It turns out that there are many shades of grey. In practice, species is operationally defined consistent with the research objectives of particular projects. As a result, a number of variations in such definitions can co-exist in the scientific literature without confusion among readers -- almost all being other trained scientists.

Notice that the discussion above assumed a fixed definition of species. The whole field becomes even more murky when we add that species definitions may vary as convenient for the research objective. This consideration should further inhibit lay people who are not experts in these matters from making weighty pronouncements about human evolution with expectation of being credible.

Alas, lay readers and writers are notoriously prone to ignore precise definition of terms and complexities in the subject matter, to misinterpret or even sensationalize scientific reports and to draw unwarranted conclusions. An excellent example is the silly allegation that Baha'is are "creationists" in some respect, unfairly mixing Baha'is and their writings with a contemporary social or ideological controversy, which at first glance may have little or no clear or significant relation to the content of Baha'i scripture.

Authors like Bahman Nadimi assume "the subject of evolution stands alone as the most challenging area for harmonizing religion and science" and "the problem" of "divisiveness that permeates the debate". Meanwhile, Salman Oskooi argues "the problem of disharmony between scripture and science is sometimes rooted in a misattribution of scriptural inerrancy where it was not warranted". My take is that these authors treat the subject more as philosophers or theologians, quoting extensively from Baha'i scripture, where passages are cited to help understand the meaning of other passages. This approach has its own merit.

However, notice that Oskooi uses secondary sources like Scientific American rather than primary sources, such as research reports and reviews in scientific journals, as typically done by trained and experienced scientists.

"Scriptural inerrancy" may not be the key point, perhaps wrongly assuming that 'Abu'l-Baha on human evolution may properly be treated as a scientific position paper rather than as an effort to present religious principles in terms that intelligent people of his day might understand. His father, Baha'u'llah, wrote to the kings of the earth. If 'Abdu'l-Baha was concerned with proposing a scientific theory, he could well have submitted a paper to one of the scientific journals of his day. Hence, "historical context" might be more relevant than "scriptural inerrancy" in the Oskooi citation above.

"Scriptural inerrancy" seems to be the delicate way that theologians assert that points about science in scripture may never be incorrect and just plain wrong. If we insist that 'Abdu'l-Baha on human evolution is scripture (as defined above) while 'Abdu'l-Baha insisted that religion, including some of his own statements, might be updated by science, then there is no news here and "scriptural inerrancy" is inapplicable, because 'Abdu'l-Baha not only sanctioned updating his descriptions regarding evolution and other science topics, but no doubt fully expected that they would be updated.

In this light, it appears that some recent authors on this subject may have completely missed the point. They want to analyze scripture on specific scientific questions as if it were eternal truth while that same scripture itself indicates that it may be updated by scientific developments via the principle of the harmony of science and religion. Hence, it seems that this scripture is more a topic for historians than for philosophers and theologians. At least for scientists, this scripture is primarily of historical interest.

Indeed, one may argue that 'Abdu'l-Baha did not err in these presentations, that he successfully emphasized the magnificent spiritual and intellectual capabilities of the human species and the need for independent investigation of truth and for harmony of science and religion. As a religious leader, he backed these ideas by accepting most of the human evolution thinking of scientists of his day, in contrast to other religionists who opposed allowing science to update religion. By implication, his presentations were a challenge to scientists to match his performance by accepting the often revolutionary religious principles of Baha'u'llah -- namely, to update their religious thinking.

Many scientists are members of the Baha'i community, but the majority has yet to adequately respond to 'Abdu'l-Baha's challenge. Instead of elaborating on this theme, some contemporary writers prefer to treat 'Abdu'l-Baha's effort as a modern paper on evolutionary biology theory. Was it really? Or was it a teaching effort? Was he trying to communicate Baha'i concepts to the public or was he aiming for a post-humus Noble prize in biology?

In any case, scientists use sensory observations (the data) and strive to develop ideas (theories) that explain all the data. Although religious experience might be an inspiration, they do not derive their science from scripture, period. For scientists, theories explaining observational data and religious scripture, both parts of human experience, are nonetheless apples and oranges. Therefore, among scientists, debate is normal, not divisive and definitely not a "problem". It is what scientists do.

The news for scientists like the author may be that the Nadimi and Oskooi articles indicate that the philosophers and theologians are in a hurry to understand how scientific and religious beliefs might eventually converge regarding human evolution. What is the hurry?

Scientific and religious beliefs are both being updated to achieve harmony between science and religion as much as possible at any particular time. This harmony is a moving target. A 2003 paper by Mehanin and Friberg may be useful snap-shot of this moving target.

Why would the updating process be divisive? If anything, for scientists, theoretical debates are fun and in order to have that enjoyment, people taking the other side of the argument de jour are welcome.

'Abdu'l-Baha's talks and writings are historical documents which will not change. As thinking on human evolution is inevitably updated in the future, what exactly does it matter what century-old religious documents say about the subject? Apparently, theological investigators deem that some religious documents deserve special attention even though they may clearly be yesterday's news. For scientists, yesterday's news is irrelevant. New observations contradicting, or unexplained by, current theory is relevant.

Well-established science can apply pressure to update religious beliefs, and vice versa. Since current forms of both science and religion both lack a monopoly on truth, harmonizing the two belief systems may be a slow, incremental process. Meanwhile, beware of using science to judge scripture and vice versa.

To a scientist, attempts by non-scientists to reconcile specifics in religious documents from 100 years ago about human evolution with contemporary biological research seem like one big waste of time. Apparently, many authors want to be literalists. But what are the odds that a century-old science textbook will shed light on current issues in science? Likewise, what are the odds that a 100-year-old religious document on a scientific subject will shed light on current issues in science? In both cases, the odds are slim to nil. Efforts to overcome these odds might be called the "lottery ticket" or "Hail, Mary" approach to harmonizing science and religion, with very low productivity expectation.

However, to be open-minded, free speech and independent investigation using a variety of methods are accepted and encouraged. Happily, as time passes, the free market of ideas will indicate the most probable best solutions.

Humility is a key requirement for the true seeker in both scientific and religious investigation. Trained researchers know that operational definitions may be faulty or misleading, that statistical analysis typically provides only a probably that a working hypothesis is confirmed or rejected according to the data collected, and that interpretation of research results is fraught with many pitfalls. Given this degree of caution and awareness of possible faults by professional researchers, lay persons outside a particular field of expertise are well advised to exhibit a similar degree of humility and preferably, to develop expertise in a particular field and do serious work in that field.

For example, articles by linguists presenting the origin and generally accepted meanings of vocabulary in Baha'i scripture in its original languages could be constructive, so that language non-experts might better appreciate the English translations in much published Baha'i literature.

The author has a PhD in Physiology, which is human biology. This is mentioned only because, as far as the author knows, this article may be the only publication by a trained biologist on the subject of human evolution in Baha'i scripture. Let us hope that others trained in the biological sciences including genetics, biochemistry and microbiology will also write on this subject in the future, whether or not they agree with the current presentation. The basic theme is to be slow to state strong conclusions and fast to recognize and itemize possible faults in conventional thinking.

With proper exercise of humility, one might say that there is no such thing as the "Baha'i view of human evolution". It does not exist. What exists is specific passages from Baha'i scripture, where there is considerable room for definition of terms and interpretation of meanings, exactly as there is in modern biology and its many sub-specialties. Saying that all Baha'is believe exactly X, Y or Z on a science topic is like saying all biologists accept theory X, Y or Z. It is not true and will not happen. People are too variable. Thus, among Baha'is as among scientists, the task is a never-ending line of discussion, debate and investigation. Call it chaos, but that is what we have.

Finally, we get the independent part of "independent investigation of truth" which allows for Baha'is and others to develop dramatically different ideas and conclusions on many topics. What may be considered established knowledge may be challenged by new data and ideas. Hence, one might strive to be somewhat detached from, or independent of, so-called established knowledge, since further investigation might reveal new and substantially different pictures.

Summary and Conclusions. 'Abdu'l-Baha's statements about human evolution are not necessarily inconsistent with concepts in contemporary biological research although some propagandists seem to wish it were so. Indeed, 'Abdu'l-Baha's treatment of the subject almost a century ago outlines several basic ideas which are now premises of current research in evolution.

The Baha'i principle of the harmony of science and religion provides for update of Baha'i scripture on science topics. This update process will probably be slow and decentralized, as particular advances in science are gradually dessiminated and widely accepted as established knowledge.
© 2011 James J Keene

Making Straight A's

2011-11-26T03:43:00.010-05:00

Making straight A's is a do-it-yourself project for students from high school through college and into post-graduate programs. The proven method presented generally can raise grade point averages by about two points -- e.g., from D to B, from C to A and from B to best in class (arrows in Fig. 1).

Fig. 1: Class Grade Distribution

This article describes the method for making all A's, starting with motivational factors and simple learning principles, which suggested the successful 1964 prototype used by the author at the University of Chicago (me in Fig. 1) and finally, the more recent, stream-lined recipe for straight A's.

Motivational Factors
This do-it-yourself project for making all A's can save money. It uses less time than the disorganized study methods of almost all students leaving more free time, say, for part-time jobs. High grade average can earn scholarships as well. Perhaps the most important consequence is increased self-esteem, which itself feeds back to further facilitate learning success.

Learning Fundamentals
Imagine a college course named "Your Place 101" where the entire subject matter you have to learn is information about where you reside. You are exposed daily to this information and may have helped create it to some extent -- e.g., how you arrange the furniture. On the other hand, the other students in "Your Place 101" only have limited access when they can visit your place, take notes and try to remember as much as they can.

Just before the big final exam for "Your Place 101", the other students are staying up all night, drinking lots of coffee for stimulation and trying to cram. Anything about your place might be on the exam -- number of rooms, if there are steps to the front door and if so, how many? Is there milk in the refrigerator and if so, on what shelf? To the right or the left? Is there a crack in the ceiling above your bed that you know well, but that the others may not have noticed. What is the color of everything? What are things made of? What appliances are there? Well, the possible questions on the big exam are almost limitless.

In the final days, the other students are in a near panic state comparing notes, trying to recall every detail before the big final exam. Meanwhile, you are getting a good night's sleep, and maybe even relaxing by watching a movie before the big exam. As you enter the exam room, you know that you will score best in the class, nearly 100 percent on the exam because you know the required information backwards and forwards. If they ask something you can't recall, so what! You will settle for 96 to 98 percent correct and still have the highest score in the class. You are completely calm, cool and relaxed amid a sea of very nervous students. To you, the big final exam is just a few hours work interrupting your favorite activities, a necessary requirement for an A grade in the class.

Why do you perform so well in "Your Place 101"? What are the learning fundamentals?

Repetition. For one thing, you never really forced yourself in any manner to learn the required material of the class. You were simply exposed to it repeatedly, day after day. You can open the refrigerator and get the milk with your eyes closed because you remember where you put it, always in the same old place. You know all about your stove, if any. You know where the spoons and forks are. You know the colors of everything in your place. You know how you get to campus from your place. You know how many windows, if any, and do they have curtains and on and on.

Indeed, you have completely memorized perhaps tens of thousands of little "rat facts" by nothing more than repeated exposure.

Low Anxiety. When you immerse yourself in the subject matter (Your Place), you have no fear. To the contrary, your place is for rest and relaxation from your taxing daily schedule of classes and perhaps part-time work. Low anxiety facilitates absorption of information. On the other hand, the other students in the class are all nerves, attempting to note and later memorize all the details of your place. This high anxiety not only impedes the learning process but also recall performance during the big final exam. In sum, low anxiety helps you both in the learning process in preparation for the exam, but also in better recall of information during the exam.

This anxiety factor is quite important. One can almost smell the fear in many beginning medical students -- "Will I become a medical doctor, or not?" I would tell medical students in my Neuroscience classes that all they can do is to work as hard as possible in their studies and not worry about that. Or rephrasing, if they don't work hard, they will never really know the true answer to the question above. Conversely, if they do study as well as possible, medical students usually know the odds of getting an MD degree within one or two semesters, during which medical schools cull out students who cannot maintain a given grade point average.

Low Fatigue. Fatigue -- lack of proper sleep and rest -- impairs performance of many kinds including recall of memorized information. Our "Your Place 101" example ensures that you are rested and full of energy on the big final exam day.

Student-Teacher Contract. Generally, the contract or agreement between student and instructor is simple. If the student demonstrates learning of most of the specified material, he or she gets an A. Lower performance levels get lower grades. Hence, the key question is what is the required material? The typical answer lies in assigned readings, the lecture or class activities, any outlines or hand-outs provided by the instructor, notes from students who took the course previously, and so forth.

In short, a successful student has operated a sort of intelligence agency to determine as closely as possible the required learning tasks. More on this "student as spy" theme below.

The 1964 Prototype
The author developed the all A's method while an undergraduate student at the University of Chicago (UC). In the first semester, I managed to get a B average. True, there were a lot of very smart and well-prepared kids at the UC in those days, many of which out-performed me in grade point average in that first semester.

Each student had a faculty advisor to discuss the academic program and sign off on course registrations. When I expressed some disappointment about the B average for the first semester, my advisor said, "Well, that is quite good, considering that you came from a public school system in Oklahoma."

Upon reflection, this remark was somewhat troublesome. "This cannot be", I thought. True, in that first semester, I had spent a lot of time reading almost the entire collected works of C. G. Jung, not required by any course work. Second, although I had a Woodrow Wilson scholarship, this needed to be supplemented by part-time work in the UC library and later at the Computer Center in the Fermi Institute. In short, my time for study was limited. Further, I was planning to conduct an extracurricular research project in social psychology in subsequent semesters, later published in Sociometry. Clearly, I needed more time.

Using the principles above, I tried a new method to master the required course material in less overall time than the other students and to then outperform the other students. It worked.

A few days after the mid-term exams, in the UC bookstore, I saw the professor for one of the courses carrying a folder of papers. I asked the professor if he had the grades yet. "What is your name?" "James Keene". He fumbled through his folder and in a few moments showed me the grade distribution. It looked like Fig. 1 above. There was a single mark way above the other highest grades, clearly outside the "normal distribution" of test scores. The professor, eyeing me curiously, pointed to that highest test score, saying "That's you" (me in Fig. 1). He looked me over with a raised eyebrow and smile as if he thought I might be a superior alien being from another world. Or more mundanely, that maybe I had cheated.

How could Keene have a such a high score? It was like an unknown horse beating some of the best race horses in the world by many lengths completely humiliating the competition. And this Keene method worked in all the other courses as well. What did I do to unlock the learning power of the brain?

Step 1: Identify the required material. During the semester break, I skimmed through all the assigned books and readings for the upcoming semester. In short, I worked like a dog. But this was low anxiety work of a purely clerical nature -- identify content. This step is sort of like the work of an analyst at an intelligence agency. Say your job assignment is country X. You read all the newspapers, new books and magazines and highlight potentially important content or trends. Same for broadcast materials.

In my dorm room intelligence agency, I was identifying and underlining all key content in all the assigned readings even before the semester classes started.

In this clerical, mechanical step, full understanding of the content is not required, just that it appears to be important for potential exam questions and some memorization is required. Later, during lectures and further reading, the content will be better understood.

In 1964, the assigned books were not as explicit as typically seen in current textbooks. Further, many of the assigned readings were primary sources -- e.g., journal articles. In contrast, today's textbooks are filled with tables, flow-diagrams, with liberal use of bold type-face in the text to highlight key material and ideas, making step 1 much easier for students to visually identify core content.

For example, textbooks have lots of vocabulary to learn and define. For biochemistry, it is a no-brainer that you will need to memorize basic metabolic pathways. For microbiology, the types of infectious agents and respective mechanisms of action and treatment. For anatomy, bingo, lots of names of structures to learn.

Indeed, almost every course is a sort of "foreign language" class, since you have to master the jargon used in that field of study. I used to joke, "All we want to award you your MD degree is that you learn a lot of vocabulary so when you read medical books and journals later, you will know what they are talking about."

If you can get the reading list, focus on the chapters of textbooks that are actually assigned in a particular course. As you scan information, if "Could this be on the exam?" is a "Yes", then highlight it.

Step 2: Transcribe the content. In junior high school in Owasso, OK, both boys and girls were required to take a typing class using the pre-electric typewriters of the day. In step 2, I used such a typewriter to transcribe the highlighted course content. As this task progressed, dozens of single-spaced pages of direct quotes from the assigned readings were rendered. This process passed the required information through my visual system and out my motor system to the typewriter, beginning the process of relaxed exposure of my nervous system to the content.

Step 3: Voice record the content. Next I read my condensed, type-written pages into a tape recorder. The key in this step is to read the information as fast as possible. This may take a little practice. If you record the content at your normal speaking speed, it will sound slow and become boring when you listen to it later. Further, time is wasted. So practice reading the content as fast as you can. Again, active brain participation occurs visually as the material is read and processed to the motor system to vocalize it out loud for the recorder.

For speed in recording tabular material, say the column headings once. For example, "vitamin", "chemical structure", "sources", "deficiency symptoms", etc. Then, for each line, the particulars can be recorded without repeating the column titles.

Generally, your recordings will not have long explanation of ideas and things. This sort of understanding of the material comes from lectures and readings in the courses. Hence, listening to tapes of course lectures would not be very effective. Once you understand a concept, that is it; you are done with one-trial learning. Your tapes will contain content for memorization -- vocabulary, brief definitions, lists of things (amino acids, hormones, historical figures and dates, verb conjugations, etc).

Indeed, the recorded content should be delivered as telegraphically as possible, eliminating repeated words, etc. An example, say, from physiology or engineering: "A causes B which causes C followed by D which feeds back to inhibit B" becomes "A, B, C, D decreases B". Your brain will fill in the gaps while you listen. Practice makes perfect and folks learn quickly to fill their tapes with rapid-fire information, so they will not be boring and time-wasting later when listening.

Since exams might be scheduled on different days, use different tapes for different courses.

Step 4: Play your tapes of course content. When you wake up, the first thing you hit is the play button on the tape recorder. Core course content is played at essentially all times. While you get up, while you dress, while you cook, while you eat, etc. Returning to my room after classes or work, again the recorder was in play mode.

In 1964, I had a reel-to-reel tape recorder, too big to carry around. Today, students have it much easier and can get a small cassette recorder with little earphones which can easily be carried around. Thus, one can listen to the content in one's residence as well as during travel to and from classes or work, and at times, even during classes, if the lecture material is well understood already.

Notice that use of this time for content listening results in a double whammy regarding the competition. Yes, the competition, since many courses are graded based on your performance relative to that of the other students. It's like a sports team steals the ball from the opposition and scores. That's a two point differential: the point the other team did not score and the one your team did score. In like manner, listening to your recorded course content traveling to and from classes or work, between classes, etc, is time you spend enhancing performance -- the same time the other students generally waste.

If you speak very fast during recording, it is amazing how much course content a 90 minute cassette with two 45 minute sides can hold.

The key requirement in step 4 is to actively listen to the tape. Consider your favorite songs. You might play them hundreds of times and never learn the lyrics beyond the chorus or parts of the first verse -- "I'm a soul man" or "...I was feeling kind of sea-sick, but the crowd called out for more..." But if you actively listen, with some repetition, one can easily memorize song lyrics to sing along with little additional effort. The same applies to your recorded course content. After some repetitions, you can stop the recorder and recite out loud what the tape will say next and recall the next topic on the tape, much as one recalls the next song on a frequently played music album. We might say that your course tapes are the "greatest hits" of your current classes.

Since you are playing your tapes almost all the time, not to worry if your mind wanders or if you stop to chat with a friend. The method works not by turning yourself into a robot, but by using time as efficiently as possible to expose you repeatedly to course content.

Step 5: Update content during the semester. After classes begin in a semester, new material from lectures or additional reading assignments will probably add content in steps 1 to 3, which are updated as fast as possible. The repetition principle applies in all steps. That is, if these tasks are completed in a shorter time, a greater time or number of days for repeated listening to your tapes remains before scheduled exams.

Step 6: Read while you listen. In the last days before an exam, in the 1964 prototype for this method, I would play the tapes and read out-loud the notes from which the tapes were made. Or if not reading out-loud, I read silently while listening. Thus, the brain was exposed to the same content both visually from the typed notes and through the auditory system from the playing tape.

Aside from this final reinforcement, one can simply rest and relax before exams while the other students are nervously staying up all night trying to cram facts into their rag-tag, scrambled brains.

Step 7: Take the exams. Obviously, one does need to show up for the exams. However, as mentioned, this step is just a few hours of low-stress, clerical work. Indeed, enter the exam room with a supremely confident "Ask me anything" attitude.

In my experience, the steps above actually take less time than most students spend supposedly studying and also yield substantially better results. Clearly, success is pegged to some extent on a commitment to work very hard early in the semester and preferably even before classes start. Thus, more time for relaxed repeated exposure to the content remains before exams. However, this work is low stress, clerical or secretarial in nature. You are simply gathering and condensing core information in steps 1 to 3, much like the job of an analyst in a spy agency.

Stream-lined Method
My original 1964 protocol described above was clearly over-kill. There was no need to be viewed as an extraterrestrial with vastly superior intelligence (me in Fig. 1). Thus, in subsequent semesters, I stream-lined the method. Step 2 -- typing the identified content -- was eliminated. Many who wish to try this method may not have the typing skills. In summary, the steps above can be reduced, bypassing step 2, by reading highlighted material straight from course readings or notes directly to your portable cassette recorder.

General Applicability
A number of my medical students have used my method over the years with noteworthy success. I know of no failures. Thus, the method works for most if not all people because it uses the optimal conditions for the brain to absorb factual information with maximal efficiency. This efficiency has been observed in two variables: less overall time "studying" and greatly improved performance.

One might worry that the method might fail if less time were available. Here is an extreme case. In the mid-term exams, one medical student had several D grades making it almost impossible to recover in the final exams to achieve a B average required by the medical school for him to continue his studies. In a sort of panic, he approached me to tell him about my all A's method which he had heard about during the orientation sessions for entering students in the medical school. The school's administration regularly scheduled me to give a 15 minute presentation of my academic success method in these sessions.

This student started my program in the middle of a semester. The next day, he showed up with two 90 minute cassette tapes, "I stayed up all night recording these from the material in the first half of the semester which will be covered again on the final exams. Next I'll do the material which is assigned but not yet presented in lecture for the remainder of the semester." In short, instead of going home with D and C grades with a broken spirit, this student went on to earn his MD degree. True, he did not get all A's, but he managed to keep a B average to complete the program.

This method worked for different exam formats -- multiple choice, true/false, fill-in-blank and essay, since each requires recall of pertinent information.

Improving content storage and recall as described should not be confused with general intelligence. Ability to absorb and recall information appears to be only one component of intelligence. Apparently, educational institutions measure content recall in exams for various reasons. For example, mastery of factual information is easier to measure than other intelligence componenents such as insight, relationships among ideas, intuition, creative analysis and other assorted intellectual skills. However, recall performance does seem to be correlated with general intelligence.

In summary, my method works not because there is something atypical about me. Whoever uses it will improve their performance, as far as we know at present. It is simply a matter of considering brain capability to memorize data as a tool. Tools work best when operated properly. Use your brain properly as described and you will need little good luck in your studies!
© 2011 James J Keene

Build a Central Bank in Your Kitchen

2011-11-07T23:36:00.020-05:00

Do-it-yourself projects can save a lot of money. By this criterion, building your own central bank (CB) is the ultimate money saver, regardless of your skill set, with readily available ingredients in your own home. Key concepts of money presented previously in Independent articles are summarized, providing background and step-by-step instructions to build your own CB. Fig. 1 lists some CB attributes and indicates that CBs come in two types: evil and good.

Fig. 1: Central Bank Types

The first evil CB type already exists in the national, sovereign CBs of nations (e.g., Bank of England, the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank, the Bundesbank). This type requires a special privileged relationship with the respective governments, via various laws and/or regulations. The evil CBs maintain relationships with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which prohibits use of real money -- gold and silver -- as national currencies. Assuming your household has no desire or ability to literally take over its national government, the only practical alternative is to build a good CB.

This do-it-yourself project can be done by individuals, families, communities, organizations of all sorts including corporations, non-profits, religious groups and even national governments, presently trapped under the heavy oppressive foot of the IMF. For each, building a good CB offers the opportunity to experience life in a way that may not be otherwise possible.

Step 1: Choose Freedom
Interest in building your CB may assume one has already chosen freedom over debt slavery. However, the majority of the population still prefers economic slavery or the addiction to conventional, but false, economic theories, which favor theft of savings by inflation created by the evil CBs. Much like Alcoholics Anonymous, Step 1 is to resolve to kick this addiction in order to attain personal freedom from repression by the banking cartel.

The owners of the evil CBs are major banks some of which may be headquartered in foreign countries. Thus, these CBs serve the interests of the banking cartel rather than the purported goals of serving the best interests of the economies and people of their respective nations. In short, they were established with the sole true objective of enriching the few at the expense of the people.

Their true goal is supported by laws and regulations establishing legal tender, fractional-reserve banking and the evil CBs themselves with their license to counterfeit fiat currency, all protected by government force. These laws should be repealed in favor of freedom to choose media of exchange (money) and banking services based on free competition. Before revolutionary changes may allow for repeal of such oppressive laws, building good CBs (Fig. 1) is an important survival priority.

The evil CBs induce inflation as a device to diminish the wealth of people stored in fiat currency units (dollars, pounds, euros, yen, etc). For this reason, they cannot allow free markets. Instead, price fixing of interest rates (the cost of money) is routine.

Step 2: Establish Security Procedures
Secrecy is central to both evil and good CBs. Since most if not all transactions of evil CBs are contrary to the best interests of the people supposedly served, these transactions must be hidden, secret, or if not, misrepresented in public statements regarding their true purpose. These secrets are guarded more than military and national security details. This fortress of secrecy is greatest for their dealings with the only real money on earth for over 2,000 years -- gold and silver. For example, investigators like GATA have worked for decades to slowly discover some of this closely guarded information.

In particular, regarding U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) transactions which in effect bail out European banks indirectly obligating the U.S. tax payer to back up the loans, the Fed has made every effort to keep them hidden from the public.

Secrecy is also paramount in building a good CB. While the public knows the evil CBs exist, nobody should know that a good CB even exists, much less any of its operational details. This is especially true for individuals and other small entities which may not have the resources to effectively protect its reserves (gold, silver and other precious metal bullion).

Some analysts suggest that one other trusted and trustworthy person should know about a good CB project. If a single person is the builder and operator of a good CB and nobody else knows about it, then the person might write down key details, in the event of incapacitation or death. This information might be in a will and testament or similar document.

Secrecy is key regarding the location(s) of CB reserves. Multiple locations are preferable, including multiple countries, if possible. CB reserve security is discussed further below.

Step 3: Rescue Wealth
Wealth is created by labor and adding value to products (manufacturing, processing, assembling, etc) or acquired by conquest (war plunder, theft, etc). Most people have never known any form of money other than "paper" fiat currencies and therefore measure wealth by amount of fiat -- how many dollars, pounds, euros, yen, etc, does a person have. However, rising fiat prices of real money -- gold and silver -- indicate that fiat currencies are rapidly loosing value (purchasing power) in a process commonly called inflation where more currency is required to purchase the same goods. Other common descriptors for wealth include savings and net worth. In these economically unstable times, wealth is best measured in ounces of gold or in other tangible assets (land, mining properties, etc).

Thus, although paper currencies may be required by legal tender laws for use in daily purchases and other transactions, they are a terrible vehicle for the "store of value" function of money. In fact, most if not all holdings denominated in fiat currency are probably guaranteed to loose value (wealth), since evil CBs are very proficient in inflating fiat currency supply. Do not be fooled by the apparent complete incompetence of evil CBs and respective governments to improve economic conditions for their national populations. Printing fiat "money" is something they can do.

Indeed, it appears that gold and silver may be the "last man standing" as a "safe haven" for wealth -- the currencies "of last resort". This devaluation of fiat currency appears to be accelerating and hence high priority is appropriate to rescue wealth presently in serious peril if stored as fiat currency and certain other financial assets denominated in fiat currency units. Several examples may be considered.

Bank deposits. Funds deposited in banks are all at risk, including checking and money market accounts and certificates of deposit (CD). In these cases, the depositor is a creditor. That is, one has essentially loaned money to a financial institution -- a bank -- hoping you will be repaid. However, most banks are in fact insolvent, not exactly trustworthy to maintain an account and to pay the depositor back. In short, the bank is in debt to the depositor.

The total amount of debt of all kinds has reached historic highs. The world is in new unexplored economic territory. Nobody can predict exactly what will happen with the exception that all this debt will never be repaid. Also, experiments with fiat currencies have always failed after about two generations in the past. This fiat life-time is presently expiring since U.S. President Nixon closed the gold window in 1971.

For banks, many have loaned deposits to uncreditworthy parties. Can you say, "Italy" and "Greece"? Can you say, "United States"? Those banks will not be repaid, at least in full, so how are they going to repay depositors? Simple answer: depositors will not be repaid.

Some countries guarantee bank deposits up to a specified amount, should the bank fail. For example, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) does this in the U.S. However, evil CB currency printing is the final mechanism for such payments. In other words, depositors will never recover the purchasing power of their deposits in banks at anything near full value.

In summary, all bank deposits should be cashed out. For CDs, pay the penalty for early withdrawal and rescue those funds as soon as possible. Via a currency conversion, this cash should immediately be converted to gold and silver bullion. The only fiat currency that should remain in banks or credit unions is a small amount to cover from one to three months of expenses that require fiat for payment (electric bills, groceries, business expenses, etc).

Thus, both evil and good CBs have some fiat currency available for daily expenses. The difference is that the good CB has the minimum required in fiat currency. In fact, if the CB-maker has current income (e.g., a pay check) which can cover current expenses, those funds may be used for this fiat transactions account with any surplus converted to bullion CB reserves.

Corporate bonds should also be sold immediately to rescue wealth. Corporations are not immune to incompetent money management. Heard of the trillions of dollars held off-shore by U.S. corporations? Or the multi-billions in Microsoft's cash hoard? One guess where those funds are: deposited in banks. Readers here know that 50 to 90 percent, if not all, of these funds might be lost essentially over night at virtually any time going forward. Clearly, even large corporations and entire nations should build their own good CB as soon as possible. Iceland may be on that path right now. Similarly a few countries are moving toward gold as legal tender.

Government Paper. Almost all countries have been chronically unable to balance their national budgets and therefore need to borrow money from investors. This is called sovereign debt. The U.S. sells Treasure Bills and Bonds where the purchaser is loaning funds to the government. All of these should be sold immediately, as with any other debt instruments sold by states or municipalities.

In summary, all forms of debt that will never be repaid should be sold to recover cash (whether at profit or loss) as soon as possible. By inflating the fiat currency, these government debtors hope to pay investors with paper money that is worth less and, in the endgame, worthless. That is, the preferred default method is to print fiat to pay these debts, which is equivalent to theft of investor wealth via a counterfeiting operation. Investors (creditors) loose since their fiat currency holdings are diluted loosing value.

Pensions and Annuities. Wealth may be rescued by cashing out of pensions and annuities that allow it. This means that one gets a lump sum of fiat and will no longer receive the associated monthly payments. Those who fail to cash out and protect this wealth may find that their monthly pension check may stop arriving given the established fact that pension fund assets are nowhere near sufficient to support their obligations to pensioners. Or, with possible hyperinflation, a monthly pension check might not even buy a single cup of coffee, having become worthless.

Stocks. Many analysts estimate that about 30 percent of wealth invested in the general stock market (e.g., the S&P500) has been lost in the last decade. These stocks should be sold per the above instructions to fund a good CB.

Other Assets. For the less wealthy, look around you at all the junk you have acquired. Sell it. Garage sale. Newspaper ads. Ebay. Whatever. Keep a few items that are deemed to be necessities.

Most appliances are not necessities by any measure. Refrigerators, freezers, washing machines, dryers, etc, are all in play. I sold a refrigerator realizing it is not needed. Even certain perishables like eggs and cheese survive up to one week or more without refrigeration. In short, with two trips to a grocery store a week, refrigerators are simply not needed in most households, period.

Funds Not Spent. Money not spent is like money earned. Note how electric bills decrease when refrigerators, freezers, washing machines and the like are simply unplugged. Any food grown results in funds not spent in a food store. At the author's property, there is a grafted mango tree, an orange tree, two cherry trees and dozens of banana plants and sweet and hot pepper trees. Over a dozen coffee trees were recently planted. Tomatoes, cucumber, cantaloupe, swash and watermelon are also grown, given freely to neighbors or sold as organic-grown foods. Is the reader growing any food at all?

The particulars of the "Other Assets" and "Funds Not Spent" categories will vary widely among individuals. Hundreds of other suggestions may be applicable. Think for yourself.

To highlight the risk of fiat currency deposits in financial institutions in Step 3, the author recently applied the multiple location rule by opening an additional trading account to distribute funds. This additional account was to be for futures at MF Global. Before the account setup papers even arrived in the mail, MF Global had gone bankrupt. If that account had been opened and funds deposited, who knows when and if those funds could have been recovered.

The big picture regarding this Wealth Rescue step includes the possibility that a financial crisis greater than the 2008 episode might occur. If so, governments might declare bank holidays during which depositors have no access to their funds.

Step 4: Establish Reserves
Rescued fiat currency is like the hot potato game -- last one holding it looses. Converting fiat money to real money for good CB reserves is a currency exchange, similar to exchanging pounds for euros. In this case, gold and silver coins or bullion is purchased in what is currently the last free lunch where both small and large good CB-builders can get something for nothing.

Per security requirements in Step 2, good CB reserves should be stored in multiple locations and preferably in multiple countries. For most or all of these reserves, the good CB-builder should take physical possession of gold and silver and personally select and construct, if necessary, storage locations.

Here is what not to do. One owner of some $50,000 in silver bullion hired a contractor to build a secret compartment in his garage. Not long thereafter, the contractor stole all the silver. Two mistakes here. The secrecy rule was violated. Thieves generally strive to steal items that they know exist. Second, the owner did not store the silver reserves in multiple locations.

For random burglaries, a decoy may prove useful. Have a safe or locked metal tool box filled with heavy scrap metal (e.g., old car parts, lead fishing weights) which are relatively easy to find and easy to cart away for opening at the thieves' place. Alternatively, you might put some gold or silver in the decoy safe or tool box, so a thief might well think the robbery was a 100 percent success.

Internet search for "hiding places" will list locations in a residence. Thieves can do the same internet search, so use these suggestions with caution.

The age-old, tried-and-true method of burying bullion reserves is simple, cheap and effective. Again, use multiple locations in your own yard, if applicable, or even in distant locations in parks or undeveloped land (e.g., nearby woods). A decoy method may also be used to frustrate metal detector searches. Bury pieces of scrap iron at random locations. If scrap iron is found, the searcher might stop there concluding that a metal detector is not effective at the location.

Although some or most bullion reserves should be under the direct control and possession of the good CB builder, additional alternatives are consistent with the multiple locations rule. CEF, PHYS and SGOL are bullion funds which may be purchased by CB-makers with access to U.S. and other Western markets. Indeed, several of these funds are physically located in Canada. Physical delivery of the stock/fund certificates may be considered. For example, with these physical certificates, one could show up at the CEF fund site in Canada and take delivery of physical bullion.

After thorough internet research, one or more "gold money" accounts might be considered as well. For example, your own research may support the integrity of GoldMoney.

Finally, cash for gold purchases may suit certain persons, where scrap gold and silver are acquired. This is similar to other recycling operations for scrap metals.

The secrecy rule suggests that most or all bullion purchases be fiat cash transactions -- no checks or credit or debit cards or any other mechanism which identifies the CB-maker as the buyer. This procedure limits the number of persons who can identify the CB-maker as a bullion owner. In larger cities, look for coin or bullion dealers that accept cash payments. There are also coin shows and auctions which may be easily located through local coin clubs.

Even the big players who purchase bullion in size observe the secrecy rule. For example, for years Chinese banking authorities or representatives were buying tons of gold for their reserves and then suddenly surprised the world by announcing a huge percentage increase in their reserves.

In summary, the secrecy rule seeks to limit the number of persons who have any information, any paper trail, regarding good-CB reserves. The importance of this rule favors private transactions where fiat cash is exchanged for bullion cash, often at a premium over spot price and without any publicity.

If a person owns bullion, even a single gold or silver coin, he or she has completed at least one step in good CB-making. Since this action enhances personal freedom and economic welfare, governments, almost by definition, are not happy to the extent that personal and economic freedom decrease government control of the population. In brief, a scene that a good CB-maker does not want to see is a government bureaucrat at the door with papers indicating that one purchased such-and-such bullion. Avoid paper trails whenever possible.

Step 5: Control Fiat Currency Supply
A major function of both types of CB (Fig. 1) is to control the fiat currency "money supply". For the evil CBs, one measure of money supply is the amount of their fiat currency in circulation in the country or in the world. This supply can be decreased if the CB sells securities such as sovereign debt (e.g., U.S. Treasury Bills or Bonds) or conversely increased by buying such securities with money printed "out of thin air".

Given unjust legal tender laws, the owner of a good CB will need to control his or her fiat money supply. As suggested above, this money supply should be sufficient to cover one to three months of routine expenses. If the CB-owner has fiat currency income, this may contribute to, or even completely cover, his or her required fiat money supply. If not, the good CB cannot issue fiat currency in the same manner as the evil ones -- counterfeiting, since this is illegal for mere humans. Hence, the money supply to meet current expenses may be increased by sale of good CB reserves -- bullion.

Summary and Conclusions
This article details five easy steps to build a good CB in your kitchen.

A major difference between evil and good CBs is that the owners of a good CB are one and the same as the person(s) the good CB serves. This identity of owners and people served removes conflict of interest between two parties. On the other hand, conflict of interest is intrinsic to evil CBs since the owners and their objectives to accumulate wealth at the expense of others are incompatible with their cover story as a servant of a nation and its people. Hence, evil CB statements must necessarily utilize lies and deception while good CBs make no statements as such (Fig. 1).

This difference also accounts for the need for evil CBs to engage in price fixing of interest rates. There is no similar need for good CBs since their fiat currency increase by sale of some bullion reserves as described above is a sort of loan to oneself, where a conflict of interest is not possible.

Another noteworthy difference is that evil CB reserves may be mostly fiat currencies of other nations while good CB reserves consist of real money only -- bullion. Evil CBs using foreign fiat currencies as reserves are clearly at risk, given the general insolvency endemic in both nations and their banking cartels. Good CBs are completely free of this risk, since nobody can "print" gold and silver to arbitarily increase the supply of real money.

A further consequence is that inflation is assumed to be normal and people expect that prices of basic goods will rise over time, as long as evil CBs control monetary affairs. In contrast, when good CBs become the norm in some distant or nearby future, decreasing prices will become the normal expection, since the money supply of gold and silver will probably not grow (from mining, etc) as fast as productivity gains. That is, real money will naturally and gradually be more scarce than the goods people want to purchase. The combination of less money and more goods dictates falling prices as normal in a healthy economy.

In other words, the relative scarcity of gold and silver does not impede their use as universal currencies. Indeed, the resulting falling prices will stimulate a boom of economic activity and prosperity. For one thing, savers will be rewarded by gradually increasing purchasing power of their savings. Also, personal and economic freedom for individuals will be enhanced as government ability to manipulate the money supply and money markets is disabled.
© 2011 James J Keene

Bondage by Baha'i Election

2011-10-14T20:04:00.010-04:00

Based on abundant statistics, many commentators have noted that voters in Baha'i elections tend to re-elect previously elected members of Baha'i administrative units at the local, national and international levels. The innocent persons elected are punished by a sort of bondage to the extent that they are constrained by the obligations of this circumstance. Instead of being rewarded for their good behaviors and character, the elected suffer a penalty which may result in a "life sentence" to do administrative work, which in almost all cases is not their first love, primary interest, career specialty or goal in their life work. The situation is so bad that the only escape for most victims of Baha'i voters is to insist on retirement due to old age or sickness, or just to drop dead after many decades, forcing voters to select another victim. This article explores some background and possible solutions for this injustice.

What is the Baha'i Administration?
Instead of local mayors (or war lords) and national presidents or prime ministers (or dictators) in secular government, the administration of the Baha'i world community consists of nine-member, elected Local Spiritual Assemblies (LSA) and National Spiritual Assemblies (NSA) respectively. Similarly, at the international level, the highest administrative unit is the Universal House of Justice (UHJ).

About Baha'i Elections
As an introduction to Baha'i elections, emphasizing their "spiritual nature", the U.S. Baha'i web site writes:

There is no class of ecclesiastics or clergy in the Baha’i Faith. Instead, Baha’is use an administrative framework provided by their prophet founder Baha’u’llah. In His writings, he detailed a system of elected lay councils at the local, national and international levels to oversee the Faith. Baha’is 21 and older enjoy the right to vote in Baha’i elections and serve as members of Baha’i administrative institutions. All Baha’i elections are held by secret ballot and plurality vote. Baha’i elections have no candidacies, nominations, partisanship, campaigning, or electioneering...

The Bahá’í writings specifically encourage the election of individuals with recognized ability, maturity, experience, and humility,...who possess qualities of selflessness, intellectual capacity, moral integrity, and wisdom...

One of the most intriguing aspects of this process is the absence of a prepared ballot -- or of any system of nominations. Instead, every adult Bahá’í in the community is eligible for election to the Local Spiritual Assembly (the nine-member council in each locality that administers community affairs). On Election Day, after a period of prayer and meditation -— and with due regard to the relevant guidance in the Baha’i scripture -— each adult votes for the nine individuals that he or she feels are best qualified to serve as Assembly members.

Unjust Bondage of the Elected
The Baha'i writings emphasize the merits of service to others, to society and to the Baha'i community, such as performing administrative duties as an elected LSA, NSA or UHJ member. In the community, election to these institutions is generally positively regarded as an honor, an opportunity for service, a religious duty and the like. This service usually entails significant sacrifice of personal time and resources of the elected member. Nonetheless, Baha'i voters tend to keep re-electing the same persons to serve, seemingly oblivious to the degree of sacrifice they impose on those whom they elect.

Administration is only one of many hundreds of job descriptions. As mentioned above, the odds that an elected member has any true interest in that sort of work are very low. Indeed, some surveys have shown more interest among Baha'is in the social and spiritual teachings of the Baha'i Faith than in its administration and serving in it. Hence, once any "glow" of being elected wears off, what remains is pure administrative work. The majority of people are not specifically interested in administration as a trade or work specialty and therefore find this work to be boring and frustrating. Nonetheless, this work must be done and most Baha'is who find that they have been elected to an LSA, NSA or the UHJ forge on and dutifully serve as members.

On the other hand, the sacrifice of this service and work can be substantial and some may actively avoid being elected by not attending the election, applying the "out of sight, out of mind" rule, hoping that they will not receive votes if absent.

Sad to say, the author has used this technique. Having served on the NSA of the Commonwealth of Dominica for several years and given some unusual circumstances described elsewhere, I simply did not attend the national convention. Bingo. I was not elected for the next NSA term.

Given this situation, one might think that the voters would show some modicum of kindness and elect new members in each election cycle providing some relief for the innocents they voted for in the previous election. This could happen if ballots from voters list nine names, none of which presently serve as members from the previous election. The feasibility of this approach may be considered at the local, national and international levels of Baha'i administration.

Local Spiritual Assemblies. Some Baha'i communities are small with only nine or few more adult members eligible for election. In these cases, the ability of voters to rotate LSA members may be limited. However, if some rotation is achieved in the yearly LSA elections, one benefit is that the new blood serving on the LSA gains some administrative skills and may bring new ideas and approaches.

Some LSAs serve Baha'i communities numbering in the hundreds where it is reasonable to suppose that many dozens of persons have the qualities described above for election to a degree which is more than sufficient. Therefore, in these LSA elections, it appears to be feasible to elect a completely new set of LSA members yearly, no doubt to the enduring benefit of the community.

National Spiritual Assemblies. In countries where the Baha'i population is small, the number of eligible adults may be limited as in smaller local communities as described for LSAs. However, in countries with much larger Baha'i communities -- for example, the United States, India, Iran, etc, there really is no excuse for failure to elect an entirely new set of NSA members in each yearly election. In these countries, surely there are dozens or many hundreds of persons with ample desired qualities. Meanwhile the need to rotate elected members is much greater. For example, NSA meetings might be scheduled monthly and last several days, during which members are away from their work and families. Not to mention the resources needed for travel over great distances for some members to attend these meetings. Thus, anybody serving for one year on an NSA probably deserves a well-earned break.

The Universal House of Justice. At the international level, the factors cited above are most evident. Given the size of the international Baha'i community in the millions, there are no doubt many thousands, if not tens of thousands, with achievements and character more than sufficient to serve if elected.

The sacrifice side of the coin is also magnified. Election to the UHJ has required physical relocation to its facilities at the Baha'i World Centre in Haifa, Israel. This typically involves a significant, if not complete, cessation of the work or trade of the elected member. Given the climate, culture and general ambiance of Israel, who exactly would otherwise decide to move there? Very few. Not only that, Israel is clearly a rather dangerous place, in or near present or potential war zones. Even many Israelis are moving out of Israel precisely because of these security concerns. Yet an elected Baha'i is expected to move to Israel, typically bringing family perhaps including children.

But the situation is even worse. The regular UHJ elections are not yearly, but every five years. Those who are elected are looking at five years of administrative service and sacrifice. One has to commit a felony crime to get a sentence of five years of confinement. Yet Baha'i voters think nothing of re-electing members for periods of two decades or more!

On the other hand, the UHJ is the central guiding hand of the Baha'i community and most look beyond the sorts of sacrifice described by thinking of the importance of this service.

In sum, this voter behavior disregards the possibility that thousands of others could be elected and do an equally good job in rendering administrative services.

Best Qualified To Serve
The quotation above states that each voter "votes for the nine individuals that he or she feels are best qualified to serve..." Consider that in the yearly LSA and NSA elections and in those every five years for the UHJ, much change can occur. Specifically, many of those who were not previously elected no doubt become more qualified in this time. Also, some who were elected may well have become less qualified over the same time interval.

However, Baha'i voters appear to behave as if nothing changes over the years, that nobody has become more qualified, that nobody has become less qualified and that no social changes have occurred which might affect their subjective ratings of "best qualified". The assumption that nothing has changed is not necessarily accurate. It might be concluded that the persistent re-election of the same persons to serve on the LSA, NSA and UHJ levels is not only unjust to those persons, but also most probably inconsistent with voter duty to vote for the "best qualified".

In the Baha'i administration, both the voters and the elected members are supposed to act according to the dictates of their own conscience -- in voting and administering respectively. It may follow that if a voter deems that members of an LSA, NSA or UHJ have not done a good job, then others in the community might in fact be "best qualified" to serve after the next election. Although this factor -- voter evaluation of how well present administrators have performed -- is a major consideration, the present article emphasizes the need to show kindness to those who have been elected as a simple matter of justice, namely by allowing them to return to their preferred activities prior to serving in the administration.

What is "Best Qualified"?
At the practical level, two components of "best qualified" may be discerned. The first is the personal attributes of individuals briefly described above related to accomplishments in work or a trade and character development. The second component is the degree to which an individual will bring new ideas, new perspectives and other creative inputs to their prospective administrative work if elected, to enhance the development and welfare of the institution and community at large. This might be called the creative potential component.

This second component will tend to decrease over time for previously elected members. During their 1 or 5 year term of service, there is ample opportunity for present members to inject this "creative potential" component into the consultation and deliberations of the institution. Hence, the clear trend for present members is an ongoing decrease in overall "best qualified" rating, although Baha'i voters appear to ignore this decline which is all but inevitable for presently serving members. It follows that the longer a particular person serves, the creative potential component of "best qualified" decreases until it finally approaches zero.

In short, given equal qualifications on the first "personal attributes" component, it is most likely that "best qualified" applies to eligible persons other than those previously elected when the second "creative potential" component is considered. Quite simply, new members are more likely to bring fresh ideas, approaches, experience and perspectives to the benefit of the LSA, NSA and UHJ institutions and the communities served. After serving one term, the new members have generally had ample time to persuade other members to support those new approaches or not. In either case, the "best qualified" descriptor for present members typically declines over time.

Possible Solutions
Several possible remedies for the injustice of re-electing LSA, NSA and UHJ members "for life" may be considered, although each might be seen at present as exploratory or experimental:

1. Ballots that do not name existing members. Described above, in most cases, this method is feasible given a sufficient number of qualified persons available to serve. Further, if Baha'i voters typically re-elect existing members, there is the advantage that the voter already knows those names and can, if desired, review his or her ballot to be sure that none of these names are listed.

2. Timed individual or mass resignations. Given the degree to which Baha'i voters have demonstrated an inability to vote for the "best qualified", which is a changing variable over time, elected members might decide to announce their resignation at the end of their present term. Even if voters insisted on voting for them again, voters could be notified that this would be futile since further voting would be required in any case to fill the vacancies. This method to remedy the injustice is feasible and no doubt more effective. The resigning members have any number of valid and believable justifications ranging from "personal reasons" to "other obligations" to "welfare of the community".

If the body -- LSA, NSA or UHJ -- decides as an administrative unit that the best interests of the community would be served by a new set of qualified members, this action would be very effective. For one thing, the voters elected them to deliberate and make decisions on such matters, and this resignation process is their prerogative. In effect, the body is stating that elected members will be treated fairly by voters and not arbitrarily sentenced to "life terms" as administrators in the absence of any firm, reliable basis in fact or in accordance with Baha'i principles.

Historically, previous resignations have been accepted at the UHJ and other administrative levels showing that this solution is workable.

Finally, given the past performance of Baha'i voters to trivialize the task of selecting the "best qualified" by defining that as "was previously elected", there should be no stigma attached to those who resign at the end of their term or to all nine members similarly resigning together. To the contrary, successful remedy of this election injustice might well stimulate a new impulse of creativity and growth in the Baha'i community.

3. Formalized consecutive term limits. LSA and NSA by-laws or the Constitution of the UHJ might be modified or amended to formalize limits for consecutive terms of service, perhaps limiting such terms to a single election cycle (1 year for LSA and NSA; 5 years for the UHJ). Persons who have served a term would become eligible for election again after a subsequent election cycle elapses. Specific exceptions for some LSA and NSA regions with very small Baha'i populations and number of eligible members could be defined.

Consecutive term limits might have several advantages. Dedicated Baha'is would not depend on voter kindness or wisdom to provide them with some freedom from the obligation of administrative service, which in effect would be cut in half or more from present abusive 100 percent levels. Further, option #3 would establish more stable and predicable expectations in the community and stimulate investigation by voters to identify those "best qualified" well in advance of upcoming elections. In addition, any stigma that might be associated with individual or mass resignations synchronized with the election cycle in option #2 above would be avoided.

Summary and Conclusion
The present analysis supports the thesis that Baha'i voters may have excessive power in the Baha'i community. In the secular world, a person might have to commit first degree murder to receive a life sentence of confinement. In contrast, Baha'i voters have the power to subject some of the most qualified Baha'is to a life sentence of administrative work which for most is pure drudgery. This glaring injustice might be remedied by Baha'i voters voluntarily moderating their power in option #1 above (voting for a new set of members). In addition, elected members and institutions may counter this tremendous voter power by asserting, in effect, that they have given their "pound of flesh" and that voters need to exercise their obligation in Baha'i elections in a more fair and balanced manner, via options #2 (timed individual or mass resignations) or #3 (formalized consecutive term limits).
© 2011 James J Keene

World Order Composite Index

2011-10-03T07:03:00.014-04:00

[Update: Dec 28, 2011 The free World Order Trader™ may now be downloaded for practice trading without financial risk on the new international World Order Exchange™.]
This paper introduces a new set of proprietary indexes: the World Order Composite (WOC) based on three components -- World Order Locals (WOL), World Order Nationals (WON) and the World Order House (WOH) at the international level. Index trends reflect positive (bullish) or negative (bearish) expectations for the local, national and international WOC indexes as illustrated by the price chart in Fig. 1.

Fig. 1: World Order Composite Concept
The numeric value of the WOC indexes may be determined by buyers and sellers of an appropriate financial instrument such as WOC futures, a WOC fund or other free market auction format. Hence, the collective judgment of market makers and traders determines WOC price and whether it trends up or down in a particular time interval.

One concept of a liberating "world order" includes notions of peace, justice, freedom, prosperity, wealth and the like as facilitators of human development (Fig. 1). In contrast, war, injustice, bondage, debt and poverty may be used by some factions to achieve power of a few over the many on a world-wide scale in an opposite path to an oppressive "world order". WOC price and trend might indicate the market's assessment, based on current and expected events, of which model of world order is most likely -- liberation or oppression. Since higher prices indicate developments deemed to be positive for the human race, the WOC might be seen as a sort of inverse misery index.

World Order was chosen to name the WO indexes, based on its use by two groups who in many respects represent opposite ends of the WO index price scale, as described in a previous Independent article [emphasis added]:

Most agree that it is the Baha'is through their founder who first phrased the over-arching objective as a "new world order". Likewise, most analysts agree that the super-wealthy oligarchy have been similarly working over many generations toward a world government which they would control, also called the "new world order". But here is where the proposed parallel ends, setting the stage for an epic drama.

Over generations, the illuminist oligarchy and the leadership of the Baha'is, starting with the founding central figures, could hardly be more different in almost every way, such as wealth, values and beliefs, operating principles and methods utilized. It may even be appropriate to sum it up as the "bad guys" and "good guys".

Thus, in simple terms, if events suggest some success by the good guys, WO indexes might rise. Conversely, progress by the bad guys may be indicated by lower WO index prices.

The Baha'is coined the phrase "new world order" (NWO), which was reportedly used later by illuminist elites. To further define WO index names, the World Order Locals (WOL) index refers to local or municipal authorities, which roughly correspond to Local Spiritual Assemblies (LSA) in Baha'i administration. The World Order Nationals (WON) index may indicate secular governments of nation states or Baha'i National Spiritual Assemblies (NSA) at a similar level of organization.

At the international or highest level, the so-called illuminists have not yet established an effective world government. Instead, a variety of institutions have formed apparently intended to facilitate achievement of their reputed goal of an eventual world government which they control. The United Nations and several financial bodies such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Bank for International Settlements and the World Bank might be listed in this motley collection of mostly failed efforts at internationalization. Such efforts have been quite corrupt, while pretending to foster lofty ideals -- the old "wolf dressed as a sheep" ploy. For example, self-respecting nations, if there are any, would not even allow IMF personnel into their territory, given their agenda of looting national resources on behalf of the IMF's super-wealthy controlling interests.

An interesting prototype at the other end of the WOC scale -- the Baha'i world community, established in 1963 its highest administrative body at the international level, known as the Universal House of Justice, a nine-member body periodically elected by NSA members. Hence, the international index is named the World Order House (WOH).

The foregoing background on the development of the WOC concept featured prototypes such as the illuminists (lower WOC prices) and the Baha'is (higher WOC prices). Once understood, however, the WOC indexes need not be restricted to particular secular or religious groups, since all people may generate events favoring expectations of one extreme or the other (e.g., war vs peace, freedom vs bondage, etc). This broad conceptualization of the WO indexes might attract the greatest number of market participants.

On the other hand, a platform (exchange) for trading WO indexes could limit their scope to a particular group, such as the Baha'is. In this case, trends in the component indexes -- WOL, WON and WOH -- might assist voters to assess the success or failure of elected bodies at the three levels of administration represented as perceived by the market. For example, a down-trend in one of the indexes might suggest that it is time to ponder voting for other persons to serve as members on the particular body or bodies. Conversely, an up-trend would suggest that current members are expected to continue to do a good job. In short, the WO indexes could provide voters with possibly useful feedback on administrative performance which might have direct consequences in subsequent elections.

In conclusion, implementation of the WO indexes as tradable financial instruments might perform a useful social and economic function. Related topics include arbitrage opportunities, techniques to limit market manipulation and WOC financial instrument design to allow persons with limited funds to participate.

At first glance, an exchange for the WOC may seem to be a bit fanciful or not practical. However, parties with interest in developing an on-line trading platform for the WO indexes are invited to contact the author. The internet server hosting the trading platform would require an entity capable of creating accounts, accepting funds, updating and executing trade orders for these accounts and providing real-time, on-line quotes (bid and ask prices) for each index and the WOC, including various bells-and-whistles such as price charts, in a country with a legal system supporting such a project. The hosting entity would derive income similar to other exchanges of financial instruments from a small charge for each transaction (buy and sell).
© 2011 James J Keene

Civil War U.S.A.

2011-09-30T17:32:00.008-04:00

Recent developments suggest signs that the Second Civil War in the United States has already begun. In this follow-up of the last Independent article on "Story Updates", some of these signs and their consequences will be examined. These consequences will likely be international. Hence, these developments merit world-wide attention.

Unlike the first Civil War in the U.S. where northern states fought with southern states, the Second Civil War portends to pit the U.S. federal government against virtually all states in the "union". These signs may be reviewed in two parts: (1) fundamental disputes between the Feds and the States and (2) escalation of the ongoing armed conflict.

The protagonists may be briefly defined. The Feds are the U.S. federal government, including the executive, legislative and judicial branches, which are all generally controlled on key issues behind the scenes by a super-wealthy, illuminist elite. Indeed, as described previously,

The illuminist elite oligarchy has its three stooges -- the US government, the liberal mass-media and its bankster cartel, working to discredit those promoting individual freedom, including free speech and free economic activity. These puppet stooges continue to implement corporate fascism (government take-over of economic activity), to flood the public with deceptive propaganda (e.g., media labelling illegal aliens as "immigrants") and to take bailout and rescue money from the public for their own enrichment (banks use your money to buy gold) respectively.

In brief, "the Feds" describes the forces serving the elite oligarchy. For example, the privately-owned Federal Reserve -- the U.S. central bank -- is a major player in looting the wealth of the nation and its citizens. As we have entered the stage of armed conflict, the federally-controlled armed forces are, of course, part of the assets available to the Feds.

The States generally refers to U.S. State governments which can be strongly influenced by voters in the general population. In other words, the real power on the side of "the States" in this developing Civil War is ordinary people, the majority of whom have lost any desire to continue being raped by the Feds -- economically by lost jobs and by Federal Reserve engineered inflation, evaporating the purchasing power of their savings and pensions, politically by continuing erosion of personal freedoms and socially by the destruction of moral values promoted by the elitists puppet known as the main-stream media, including virtually all forms of mass communication, including television, movies, news broadcasts, etc.

Although it is premature to predict details concerning the armed conflict stage of this developing Civil War, one might note that most U.S. households have fire arms, that state governors purportedly control the trained National Guard units and that numerous citizen militia groups exist across the nation.

A possible advantage of the Feds is their more centralized organization. Although geographically centralized mostly in Washington, D.C., assets of the Feds extend throughout the nation in numerous facilities such as military bases, regional Federal Reserve banks and the like. This structure may represent a weakness in that facilities can be isolated and taken. Imagine capture of arms depots, for example, or mass defection of enlisted troops from the Feds to the States. Another potential weakness is the question of how far the Feds can induce U.S. citizens in their armed forces to practice violence against fellow U.S. citizens.

On the other hand, the advantage of the States is mostly in their dispersion and the fact that the armed population outnumbers the formal enlisted troops of the Feds. Expect a lot of guerrilla-style activity and strict avoidance of geographic concentration of armed personnel which might be subject to air strikes by the Feds.

1. Civil War U.S.A.: Propaganda and Legal Components
Consider the anti-Tea Party propaganda which started almost immediately upon its organization (Misleading Title section of "Story Updates"). This propaganda obviously indicated that the elitists rapidly realized the threat of freedom of thought and desire for a smaller federal government spreading among their slaves to debt.

Since those Independent reports, this propaganda by the Feds has increased in its frank hostility as voters succeeded in replacing many congressional members with advocates of freedom and smaller federal government powers.

Meanwhile, the States have marshaled impressive and wide-spread campaigns to repeal Obamacare, which is nothing more than a scheme to increase federal powers, guarantee profits to health-care corporations and further impoverish the population. In the absence of credible enforcement of federal immigration laws by the Feds, the States have launched their own laws on the matter to protect the rights of their citizens.

On the other side, the Feds have launched law suits against such State laws (She's Got Legs section of "Story Updates"), a key component in their alliance with the drug cartels.

Another example among many in the news is states breaking away financially from the federal government, where Ron Hera writes:

Earlier this week I attended the Utah Monetary Summit in Salt Lake City, Utah. As you may know, the state of Utah passed a Legal Tender Act earlier this year authorizing the use of federally minted gold and silver coins as money in the state of Utah. Now, legislators in other states, many of whom attended the Monetary Summit, are evaluating similar legislation.

This is a very important trend, since the major weapon used to loot the wealth of the nation and its population is the bogus fiat U.S. Dollar produced by the counterfeiting operation known as the U.S. Federal Reserve. Important because money talks. Taking away the tool kit of the oligarchy thieves by introducing the real money of gold and silver represents a two-pronged direct attack on elitist power: use of real money is equivalent to personal freedom for the population and to loss of the "money as debt" ponzi scheme used to impoverish the nation. This sort of direct attack on the looting operation of the elitists cannot be permitted.

2. Civil War U.S.A.: Armed Conflict
Similar to the propaganda and legal components of Civil War U.S.A., the armed conflict component has been slowly developing over many decades. For example, one can cite the killing of survivalists in northwestern states and the mass killing of men, woman and children in Waco, Texas, all under the guise of purportedly legitimate ATF operations by the Feds. In short, early "experiments" (remember the Kent State shootings?) showed that federal employees could be induced to shoot and/or kill U.S. citizens and were no doubt seen as successful by the elitists.

Fast-forward to the recent ATF "Fast and Furious" program of arming Mexican drug gangs. News outlets portray this sorry episode as a "scandal". In the present context, the real story appears to be that the Feds have recruited an ally against the States as the armed conflict of Civil War U.S.A. heats up. Recall that the purpose of the presence of federal personnel along the Mexican border was to ensure continued flow of drugs into the U.S. and drug cash into the largest U.S. banks (She's Got Legs section of "Story Updates"), which are desperate for capital, being basically insolvent and criminal organizations themselves.

Recent news wire reports feature two U.S. generals stating that the counties along the border with Mexico are now "war zones". Large areas of U.S. territory are now effectively occupied by Mexican cartels allied with the Feds. It may not be fully understood that this is an integral part of Civil War U.S.A., where the Feds and their allies, the Mexican drug cartels, are actively engaged in attacking the States at the full-blown armed conflict level.

Indeed, the extent of the Mexican occupation of the States is no doubt substantially greater than reported by any media. Who knows how many public officials in the States have been bribed or threatened by the blood-thirsty cartel troops? Who knows the true extent of drug cartel control of the States?

The implications of this unfolding Civil War include outright war with the government of Mexico considering that this major ally of the Feds -- the drug gangs -- is actively attacking the Mexican federal government as we speak.

The choice by the Feds of Mexican drug cartels as an ally suggests Fed weakness or at least serious doubts that their war with the States can be won. For one thing, the drug cartels already have plenty of cash and there are plenty of arms dealers willing to supply the cartels. In other words, the cartels did not need the Feds as much as the Feds apparently thought they needed the troops supplied by the cartels.

The rationale of the Feds may have been that the cartel troops are known to be particularly psychopathic when it comes to killing, something that cannot be certain when U.S. federal troops might be needed to kill fellow citizens. Further, the Feds have facilitated placement of drug cartel units in almost all U.S. cities of any size, ready to do the most "dirty" of the tasks required to subdue the population siding with the States. Not to mention that the drugs supplied by the cartels help keep the population of the States doped up, docile and easier to defeat. In short, it is essential for the Feds to keep both the drugs and drug money flowing north.

So this alliance between the Feds and the cartels does make sense. It would be no surprise that the cartels will need and get much more heavy weaponry (artillery, aircraft, etc) from the Feds, way beyond the fire power in the so-called "ATF scandal", to take over the national government in Mexico.

If the overtly violent phase of Civil War U.S.A. heats up further, be prepared for shutdowns of utilities such as electric power, the internet, banks, food supplies, and just about everything else. This would crash economies world-wide. Are you ready to make it "Little House on the Prairie" style? You are growing your own food, right? Of course, you are!

Do you have just one gold coin? If so, you may be suddenly more wealthy than your next door neighbor who may have $1 million fiat U.S. dollars in a bank account. The Feds are already talking with central bankers of other nations about the need to coordinate over-night, surprise currency devaluations. When and if that happens, your $1 million dollar neighbor may not have enough paper money to buy your single gold coin.
© 2011 James J Keene

Elucidating Obscure Questions

2011-09-27T05:52:00.010-04:00

The Constitution of the Universal House of Justice (UHJ) of the Baha'i world community states that functions of this nine-member, elected administrative body include:

to deliberate and decide upon all problems which have caused difference; to elucidate questions that are obscure;...

as discussed in some detail in the Independent "Gaming the Baha'i Writings" article. The UHJ should focus on increasing the strength of the Baha'i world community which in part may be best achieved by refraining, as much as possible, from elucidating obscure questions.

Primarily an administrative and legislative body, the UHJ has been the center of the Baha'i world in many senses ranging from the spiritual to the physical, being located at the Baha'i World Centre in Haifa, Israel. Prior to its first election in 1963, the center of the Baha'i Faith was its founder Baha'u'llah from 1863 to 1892, his son 'Abdu'l-Baha from 1892 to 1921 and Shoghi Effendi from 1921 to his passing in 1954.

For over 90 years (1863 - 1954), these central figures of the Baha'i Faith entertained questions from Baha'is and others on almost every conceivable subject, including philosophy, religion, government, civilization, the human being, society and science. Indeed, a popular book is "Some Answered Questions", a compilation of such questions and answers by 'Abdu'l-Baha. Thus, when the UHJ was elected in 1963, it was natural for Baha'is around to world to address an enormous assortment of questions to that body, seeking guidance which might satisfy particular needs or curiosities.

These questions often probed some extremely obscure issues, if only in the sense that scientific data and understanding was not yet available. Often the questions addressed to the UHJ would focus on current social issues and controversies, where a UHJ response might help people cope with those situations. As examples, there were questions about complex subjects such as participation by Baha'is in various social organizations, ability of women to be elected as members of the UHJ itself, homosexuality and many others.

Slowly but surely in the last 50 years for the UHJ, the incredible difficulty in producing coherent, well-informed answers to many such questions became increasingly apparent. In some cases, an answer might express some application of passages from the Baha'i writings. However, scholars might need years if not decades to study and debate exactly how certain passages in Baha'i scripture might best be translated and understood. In others, a well-informed answer would require a boat load of scientific understanding, far beyond that presently available. Not to mention the difficulty that scientific study of individuals and groups -- psychology and sociology respectively -- is notoriously imprecise and subject to various fads among investigators and radical change in perspectives over relatively short periods.

To make matters worse, the size of the Baha'i community had grown to include substantially increased diversity in cultural, religious and social variables among Baha'is around the world. This factor probably increased the number and variety of questions posed to the UHJ. In short, it seems that elucidating obscure questions may have reached a threshold where it becomes next to impossible to produce a sensible, intelligent answer, except in a very limited number of highly selected cases.

Since the founding of the Baha'i Faith to the present UHJ, the increasing pressure to answer every conceivable question has had many "escape valves". For example, the answer might be along the lines that words cannot express it or the human mind cannot comprehend it, especially with questions on various intangibles, such as the soul, life after death and so forth. Alternatively, the UHJ might just decline to offer a specific answer leaving the investigative task to the questioner to explore further.

A working hypothesis is that since 1963, the UHJ has answered too many questions -- most of which might better have been left in the "answer pending", "we don't know", or "figure it out for yourself" categories. Consider that the difficulties mentioned above tend to decrease the odds of producing workable, sensible, accurate and useful answers. In addition, answers to questions posed by Baha'is might be evaluated by the important criterion of likelihood to increase unity in the Baha'i community. Obviously, answers that do the opposite, inadvertently increasing disunity, discord and dissension among Baha'is, are clearly counter-productive.

In other words, both qualitative and quantitative developments may have changed the flavor of how questions posed to the central figures of the Baha'i Faith and to its UHJ might best be fielded. Previously, the central figures mentioned above with their special status as individuals typically provided immediate, pithy, clear and conclusive answers to questions. More recently with the UHJ, which lacks authority to interpret the Baha'i writings, this "flavor" or qualitative change appears to have a definite threshold where answers to many questions might actually be divisive and therefore, arguably, better not provided at all.

This train of thought brings us to the first item in the UHJ Constitution quoted above -- "decide upon all problems which have caused difference". One might surmise that all controversial social questions should be answered to prevent division or "difference" among Baha'is. On the other hand, this may be a generally very weak approach. For one thing, Baha'is pride themselves on the diversity in their communities, including differences of opinion. Further, differences of opinion are featured as a very significant factor in the all-important consultation procedure used in Baha'i communities. Hence, disagreement among Baha'is on particular obscure or social issues is considered normal and acceptable, not something to be avoided at all costs, so to speak.

If there be any worry, the UHJ can remind the Baha'is that all debate where there is a clash of different opinions be polite and non-violent. If anybody throws a "sucker punch" or generally if fist or gun fights erupt, the local police should be called and the offenders hauled to jail. Keep in mind that fire arms, rocket propelled grenades and other weapons should be checked at the door, before the consultation section of the Baha'i Feast or assembly meeting. With these precautions, the clash of opinions on controversial issues might produce excellent results, according to the Baha'i writings.

Individual Baha'is including the author cannot definitely pin-point this threshold, that apparently being a prerogative of the UHJ itself. However, step one might be for all to recognize that such a threshold exists and when crossed, consequences are most likely very negative to the interests of the Baha'i Faith. What is better?

(A) A perhaps excessive number of questions answered which may be wrongly taken by many Baha'i members as a sort of "ultimate and final answer" to a difficult, complex question.

(B) Refraining from a specific answer and encouraging Baha'is to investigate, research, debate and explore for an answer on their own.

Alternative A has the liability that the answer itself may do no real good and may indeed produce negative consequences in the community. Alternative B would tend to unleash the creative capacity of Baha'is and no doubt increase interest and enthusiasm beyond what can be imagined. In addition, alternative B is probably most likely to reveal in the fullness of time the outlines of a sensible, workable answer.

Perhaps the most appropriate questions to address to the UHJ would be on topics where its primary functions reside -- administration and legislation. To illustrate this point, let's consider a few juicy examples:

Example 1

Question: Should women be allowed to serve on the UHJ?

Answer: At present, only men are allowed as members of the UHJ. However, we have not gone so far as to do DNA tests or have a medical doctor do a physical examination (wearing rubber gloves) to check the gender of newly elected members. Hence, we cannot be certain that a woman has not already served as a member of the UHJ (groomed, dressed and acting like a man). Recall that NSA (National Spiritual Assembly) members elect the UHJ and may decide to vote mostly or only for females. If this were to happen, the current UHJ at that time would be obligated to accept the will of the NSA voters or not.

Example 2

Question: We have a homosexual couple in our community who has been showing affection (kissing) in public. What penalty should the LSA (Local Spiritual Assembly) apply?

Answer: The UHJ does not at present have a particular penalty for this infraction, due to different cultures and circumstances. For example, public knowledge that homosexuals are welcome in the Baha'i community might actually be desirable in some jurisdictions, in which case the behavior described would not be an infraction at all. In the worst case, an appropriate punishment may be that the couple provide the desert for the social section of the next Baha'i feast. If they accept this and comply, some Baha'is may actually encourage them to do more kissing assuming the desert provided is sufficiently delicious and high calorie.

Summary
This article explores the proposition that the interests of the Baha'i Faith might be best served if the UHJ refrains from elucidating obscure questions as much as possible.
© 2011 James J Keene

Something For Nothing

2011-09-24T08:29:00.008-04:00

The last free lunch story considered the possibility of a further deep decline in gold and silver prices yesterday, on Friday, September 23, 2011. In a "truth is better than fiction" scenario, this price drop was seen in grand style, with gold price dropping by over 5 percent (Fig. 1) and silver prices falling by almost 15 percent (Fig. 2) in a single trading day. Life doesn't get much better than this as this market action continues to create a rare "something for nothing" buying opportunity.

Fig. 1: GLD daily price
[The GLD and SLV charts are used to show price movements herein, but are not suggested as vehicles to own gold or silver.]

As reported, the first Independent item at the end of March, 2010, suggested purchase of gold and silver which are the only real money on earth. GLD closed that week marked as 3/29/10 in Fig. 1 at 110.26 (indicating a gold price in the $1100/oz. range). Closing last week at 159.80, a
price increase of about 45 percent was realized over this 18 month period.

Fig. 2: SLV daily price

Meanwhile, on 3/29/10 in Fig. 2, SLV closed the week at 17.54. Even with the huge price drops last week, the close was 29.98, an over 70 percent price increase in some 18 months. Not bad.

These gold and silver price drops represent a massive transfer of wealth from weak hands to stronger hands like you and me. Who is selling? For one thing, Friday's increase in gold and silver margin requirements on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) adds to the price drop as a factor to shake out weaker hands who were over-leveraged in this volatile market. So the weak are forced to sell no doubt booking large losses and the strong are the buyers.

For those who think that these and other markets are rigged, are manipulated, by a corrupt elite, one might speculate that this ongoing precious metals "take-down" was engineered precisely to allow the powers that be to accumulate more gold and silver at bargain prices. Of course, you and I are afforded the same opportunity to get something for nothing. Indeed, one might go so far as to link precious metals price drops to the current international banking crisis where the banking cartel is rushing to get rid of fiat currencies (nothing) for gold and silver (something), which are the ultimate universal currencies by which the purchasing power of all fiat "money" is measured. In sum, this price action may indicate for a brief time just how serious the banking crisis is.

On the other hand, some of the most leveraged entities in the world are precisely the "too big to fail" banks, many of which deal in gold. Thus, some of the gold selling may be attributed to insolvent banks raising fiat cash by selling some gold inventory at a most inopportune time after prices have dropped sharply, violating the "buy low and sell high" rule. Of course, outside this short time window, this crisis would boost gold and silver prices.

Hence, we know who is selling -- the weak, the compromised. Now consider "for what?" The sellers are exchanging something, the real money of gold and silver, for nothing. Everybody knows that paper fiat money is merely a fiction, a central bank counterfeiting scheme to create tokens which folks are forced to use as a medium of exchange in commerce at gun-point, that is, by government fiat (law). Net result. The strong get the real stuff; the weak get nothing.

"All this is very unfair," one might refrain. Well, fair or not, this is how the mostly non-free markets work these days. In short, the moral question of free and fair markets is not the immediately relevant point. All one needs to know is how the markets work, which is useful knowledge whether the price action is free or manipulated. In either case, the how helps the average person increase wealth as measured by ounces of gold and silver (a point often emphasized by Stewart Thomson).

Hence, there is no room to say, "I lost money because the markets are not fair". No, if one looses money, the reason is mostly ignorance. Exactly what does it matter if the markets are rigged aside from the immorality of it? What matters is that one knows what one is doing. If the rules are unfair, so what -- as long as one knows what those unfair rules are and then can play the game with the big guys. Indeed, the real truth is that the little guy can out-do the big players who cannot alter big positions without tipping their hand (the cards they are holding, so to speak) precisely because of the big size of their positions. Hence, the little guy can potentially run circles around the big players, like mice navigating through a herd of elephants without getting stepped on.

Given the margin increase mentioned above, we might be primed to see even lower gold and silver prices on Monday next week and perhaps over the next several weeks until a firm bottom is established. However, one might note that in "after-market" trading on Friday (after 4 PM), gold, silver and their mining stocks, which I call the "money mining" stocks, were rebounding in price. So we await Monday morning to see if there is a further deep decline or not. This sort of event can be timed to some extent by the fact that there is a "drop-dead" date for margin calls, which means the day when the broker calls and says, "You have to liquidate your position in whole or part, or deposit more funds, ...TODAY." The strong hands know all about these little details and are waiting like cobra snakes ready to strike once the prey blinks, which I explained in a previous article as the cobra strategy.

What is the point of the gold and silver price peaks in Figs. 1 and 2? As described previously, those are times when parts of a core position in gold, silver and the "money mining" stocks can be sold to book profits and raise cash to be able to buy these assets when they are on sale or to meet expenses that might arise. If sufficient fiat cash is available to take advantage of price drops, then there is no reason to sell even at price peaks, if one is not actively trading. Just sit back and enjoy the show.

Holders of gold and silver need not worry at all in periods like the present when prices in fiat currency drop. So what. In the big picture, there really is no amount of fiat currency that can replace the value of gold and silver as a saving or investment vehicle. The shortage is in real money (gold and silver), not fiat currencies, which central banks are debasing by flooding the world with these tokens. Except as specifically described, why would anyone exchange something for nothing? Do you think the power banking elite needs a gift (something for nothing) from you? While they try to convince you to transfer to them your real money for eventually worthless paper that they print?

Finally, this recent price drop in gold and silver is great news for those who previously missed the boat on the precious metals uptrend. Fig. 1 shows that one can now acquire gold at prices seen some two months ago before the ascent to record highs. And it might get better than this if gold falls further in this "correction". For silver, Fig. 2 shows that Friday's prices were within the range seen some 10 months ago in December, 2010, before the big price increase earlier this year. Are you one of those who might miss the boat again?
© 2011 James J Keene

Last Free Lunch

2011-09-22T16:35:00.006-04:00

Many know of the biblical story of the last supper, or if not, the famous painting of it. Today's story is the last free lunch. Mother's are usually right when they say things like "there is no free lunch" and "you can't get something for nothing". On rare occasions, however, one can find a free lunch and get something for nothing. Today is one of those times, when gold and silver are on sale. This means you can get something (gold and silver) for nothing (paper money).

The first Independent item in March, 2010, suggested purchase of gold and silver which are the only real money on earth. As of yesterday, gold had nearly doubled, and silver had more than doubled, in USD prices. Today, with the stock market sell-off, gold and silver prices in USD dropped significantly. That is, these two precious metals went on sale.

The recent run-up in gold and silver prices has been rather steep, with some pundits proclaiming that gold and silver markets have entered a "parabolic rise" in price phase while other analysts characterized the market as "over-bought" and ready for a "correction". Well, today looks like the beginning of a correction. For savvy savers, "correction" means "buying opportunity".

At today's NYC close, gold was off about $40 USD per once and sitting on what we call the 50-day "simple moving average" (SMA). Over the last decade or so, this price range or somewhat below it has been a reliable time to add to gold inventory (your savings). Silver was off even more today percentage-wise -- almost 10 percent, and silver price is now sitting on the 200-day SMA. Again, this price range or somewhat below it has generally been a good buying opportunity.

In short, for both gold and silver, while others are scared, worried and perhaps facing margin calls from brokers because they (amateurs that they are) have over-leveraged their positions, is exactly when you and I buy to add to inventory. The best way to do that is to buy physical gold and silver (coins, bars) and take physical possession. Alternatively, there are funds like CEF on the NYSE.

During the prior week or so when gold, silver and their mining stocks were rising I was selling parts of my core position to take profits. In contrast, today I was buying gold, silver and their mining stocks, which were also on deep-discount sale, hand over fist or as they say, by "backing up the truck" for loading. Listen and learn. When others want to sell an undervalued asset or are forced to sell to raise paper (fiat) currency cash, we are buying in measured amounts according to free fiat cash on hand.

Tomorrow, Friday, Sep. 23, 2011, may see a recovery in these asset prices or a further deep decline. If prices drop further, we just buy more. I know where you will be tomorrow morning -- in front of your local coin shop ready to buy and add to your inventory.

The good thing about taking physical possession of your money (gold and silver) is that your savings are not leveraged. Thus, if gold or silver prices drop in a phase of these volatile markets, you really do not care. It just means that the relative purchasing power of the paper currency has momentarily increased. But this is to our advantage since we can get rid of it by conversion to (buying of) more gold and silver than would otherwise be the case. Notice the U.S. dollar (USD) rise in the last week or so merely records that it is valued somewhat more relative to other worthless fiat currencies.

When the music stops, those holding paper money in any form will be big losers and those holding real money -- gold and silver -- will be big winners. The zig-zag in the markets is merely a footnote in this bigger picture, but relevant, as described above, to timing when best to buy or sell.

The converse is also true. Let's say you need to raise some paper money to pay some expenses. If you can, you try to time this to periods when gold and silver prices have recently risen.

For those who follow these markets more closely, one commentator who often reflects the concepts described here is Stewart Thomson, whose articles have been regularly posted on www.goldseek.com.

Pop Quiz:

If gold price is down dramatically again tomorrow morning,
A. You cry about the lower price your gold coins will bring if you sold them.
B. You panic and sell all your precious metals and put the paper money in a bank.
C. You take the lunch hour to go to your gold coin shop/dealer and buy more.

In a coming article, we will use these ideas to "build a central bank in your kitchen".
© 2011 James J Keene

"Jane Doe" Movie Story

2011-09-11T08:42:00.015-04:00

[Updated: Oct 24, 2011. This article responds to many inquiries about the exclusive "Jane Doe" story on Missing Keene Kids.]
Feature film makers may produce the following "Jane Doe" (working title) story -- a true, heart-throbbing, mystery thriller. Typically, several documents are created for a film production package. This article includes the story -- both a short summary and a more detailed description -- told chronologically, where some key names, photographs and details are omitted at this time, given the involvement of some of the most powerful elites in the United States. Second, a screen writer may tell the story in another document called the movie treatment, which is how the story may be presented theatrically, including various devices to show the events, which may be seen out of order (flash-backs), etc. In short, the treatment describes what will be seen and heard, leaving it to the audience to "discover" the story.

Story Summary
Born in the Midwest at the height of the roaring 1920's, the "mystery" mother -- our character M -- grew up to be attractive and flirtatious with a high sex drive. Working her way to the prosperous Northeast, as a young woman, M marries a super-wealthy Old Man, famous and a pillar in the social and economic elite of the nation. Alas, M has lovers and gives birth to a baby girl secretly in a neighboring state hospital to hide her affairs from the Old Man. The baby immediately disappears! M had arranged with a low-level employee of her Old Man for he and his wife to raise the baby as their own and move far away to hide this arrangement. For many years, M secretly sent hush-money and support payments to the "foster" family and even visited at least once to see her daughter.

Fast-forward to 1990's when the baby girl (Jane Doe) is full-grown, intelligent, holding a security-related position with lots of responsibility and a son of her own. Jane also has a strong sex drive. Growing up, Jane had long suspected that she had been kidnapped as a baby. There were lots of troublesome details. She was physically and mentally completely unlike her clandestine "foster" family and her supposed dull sisters. She was the only "sibling" good at math. No birth certificate. Entries in her baby book from a mysterious woman (M?). And much more. Jane initiates a serious search for who she really is.

Jane contacts the father of kidnapped children (the Author) seeking assistance on how to investigate this matter. Slowing piecing many details into a coherent story, Jane and the Author come to a rather convincing, but still tentative, identification of her real birth mother M. After some three decades from Jane's birth, M now has control of the vast wealth of the now deceased Old Man, and is an icon in the nation's press for the wealthy, power elite, dabbling in travel, very young men as lovers and horse racing.

In a climactic moment, after much tribulation and deliberation, Jane becomes convinced that M is her true biological mother. Sparks fly when Jane confronts M publicly at a classy hotel. Jane is arrested for disturbing the peace. Mysteriously, M and police drop the charges, and Jane is released from jail ... and she and her son disappear (!), go underground. Was there a deal? Did M (or her representative) and Jane have a little chat privately at the police station? Was Jane paid off and is now living the easy life?

Story Details
Again, although exact dates and names are most often known, these will be obscured as described above. xxx indicates redacted text.

In the 1890s, one of the most notable marriages of the decade combined the Wxxx and Vxxx families of the economic and social elite of the nation. The Vxxx family descended from a famous 19th century robber baron. There were three children -- two daughters and a son (our character named Old Man), who was to be 28 years older than his future bride, our character named M.

In the roaring 1920's, a year or so before the great stock market crash, M was born in a middle-class family in a mid-western state.

M graduated from high school and went to the University of xxx, but had to come home and get a job after her father died. She got the perfect one: flirtatious war-time (WWII) disc jockey at a radio station.

After WWII, a friend who worked for her spread the word that she was an aspiring actress from "a very prominent family." Though she didn't make it as an actress, people say she seemed more interested in marrying a rich man and just enjoying herself. "She was a fun-loving girl at all the parties," remembers another fun-loving Palm Beach girl of the era.

A bit of a publicity hound, M was adept at handling reporters. "Tell them everything, but don't tell them anything," she once advised an intimate. In a colorful moment reported in the press, the petite, blue-eyed M rode a horse up to a popular up-scale hotel and hitched it outside while she partied.

Toward the end of the 1940's, M made her first marriage to the alcoholic heir to the fortune of one of the largest equipment companies in the world.

By the end of the 1950's, M was socializing with A-category, Hollywood movie stars. After a divorce in her first marriage, she married the super-wealthy Old Man, 28 years her senior. Thus, M became a member of two of the nation's wealthiest families when she married an investor and racehorse owner (Old Man). These families were direct descendants of a major inventor in all U.S. history books and a railroad magnate -- both long-time political players.

Meanwhile, in the 1960's, the father in a family (named D) worked as an assistant to the Old Man even though father D had taught at Harvard at one time. The D family were to have several daughters, including our mysterious leading character -- Jane.

Jane was to discover upon growing older that her birthday and her birth certificate that had been filed by the D family were both falsehoods. However, it appeared she was born in the early 1960's.

It was later found that one of America's most famous nightly news anchors (character B) was a social friend of M in this same period.

Jane contacted the Author of a missing kids web site in the early 2000's. She emailed writing, "I am your poster child". Later, Jane wrote:

Jan 6, 2004 ... I am a 40 year old woman in a state of shock. In my attempt to make sense of my world, I began trying to find some sort of resource.

... I ordered my birth certificate this summer after a lifetime of questions my "parents" shamed me for asking. Questions like, "Why are all my sisters blond and I am brunette? Why am I the only person in our family with a different blood type? Why don't I mirror the features of my family?, Why don't I have a birth certificate?". The response, "How could a child say these things to her parents. What is wrong with you?".

The truth -- my name, birth-date and birth-town -- are all fraudulent. There is absolutely no record of me. I had a very extensive, expensive search done for three years [regarding] ... my fraudulent birth date -- nothing.

... my instinct told me that in all probability I am a kidnapped child.

[Regarding Missing Keene Kids,] Sadly, I didn't even need to be turned against my parents. I was unaware of their existence until the present. This discovery sent my "family" running for cover. I have not heard a peep from my "Mother" or three "sisters". Criminals usually run from the scene of the crime. They have absolutely nothing to say to me. Loving family, eh?

So -- no Birth Certificate, no Name, no Birth date, no Birth Place. Good Grief! My poor parents -- whoever they are. I am sure they shared the same heartache you did over the years. Worse, they probably assumed because of my young age, I would not know my name. They are right.

I celebrated my very first UN-Birthday this year. I know it isn't my real birthday, but have another 363 days to eliminate. I wonder what my real birthstone is, what my real horoscope would reveal, how old I really am.

These are the things that start bubbling up in your mind. Such a cruel thing to do to a human being!

Jan 9, 2004 ... The lie I have lived my entire life is far more credible than the truth. ... I did not wake up one day and decide I would turn my life upside down.

My life was reordered April 1, 2003, when I was casually looking in my cedar chest. I stumbled upon my baby book and began flipping through. As a child, this book passed. Now, an adult with her own child, it screamed at me to take a closer look. The very first thing that caught my eye was my footprint. The moment I lifted up the edge of the paper and saw an article on the back, sheer panic flooded my body. Then, another "picture" of me as an infant, with an article about sailboats on the back.

My baby book was constructed from magazine clippings, just like a collage a child might make in elementary school. What was missing was any remotely authentic birth document. No hospital tags, no newspaper announcement, no pictures. Just my "Mother's" handwritten account of my infancy.

With baby book in hand and her own devious imagination, she rewrote the story of my life to fit her agenda. It worked for almost 40 years! Each lie carefully built on the lifetime of lies, until the bottom fell out.

Life has a way of putting you on paths you could never have chosen on your own, with a passion that reaches beyond the depths of your soul. If you would have told me I would be sitting in an adoption support group meeting, or writing to a Doctor about kidnapping six months ago, I would have laughed. I'm not laughing.

I have no choice but to get back on the proverbial horse. I have spent six months trying to wrap my head around my life situation. I have spent even more time trying to dull this indescribable pain. Until now, I have been unsuccessful. The only way out is through the fire, and I am geared up and ready to go. ...

What I hold on to in my deepest moments is this one truth: I am and always have been the same person despite my life circumstances. I can only look like those who gave me my genes. It takes no effort to be me. My dimple, my deep blue eyes, my intellect, even more amazing, my integrity, my honor, my inherent gifts which do not mirror or match those I spent the first 16+/- years of my life with.

These parts, I firmly believe, cannot be altered through abuse, deception or lies. You cannot kidnap a soul. ...

I believe I am as far from my roots as my kidnappers could possibly run without leaving the country. ... We traveled extensively as children. ... Interestingly enough, my passport is the only form of identification I have ever used, and I had it as a young child.

The only other birth document I posses is a baptismal record. I am told this is a loophole used in my days to obtain false documents. It is my understanding that an infant can be given any name by the "parents" during the baptismal ceremony and then this "official" document can be used in lieu of a birth certificate. ...

Jan 12, 2004 ... In the next few days, I will begin compiling information. ...

I contacted my "Mother's" sister for the first time in at least ten years. She has been very helpful, ... [and] shared the fact that her husband of over 30 years did mention how different I looked from my siblings, how I appeared out of nowhere.

Jan 17, 2004 ... a woman in [omitted] discovered she had been taken from her family some 35 years ago. Her story was rooted in the same sort of deception, however, her "mother" had been willing to come clean and provide some names.

The "Mother" had told this woman that she had taken her from a life so horrible that this woman was grateful to have been "saved" by this good Samaritan. She was told her mother was a drug addict among other things. Her abduction occurred in [omitted] by her biological Father and his mistress. When things fell apart between the Father and his girlfriend, the girlfriend took the child and never tried to locate the Mother.

This now grown woman, [omitted], finally met her biological Mother recently. She was far from the addict her abductor spoke of. She was a Mother who NEVER stopped looking for her child. Her entire family knew of her, and each Birthday the entire family bought a cake and hoped one day they would celebrate with her.

That day finally came. After reading the article, I contacted the journalist who wrote it. It has been over a month, and [omitted] gave the newspaper permission for me to make contact under certain conditions (giving a sort of password). I cannot wait to speak with her -- hopefully soon.

What I found interesting is how quickly the group of adoptees at a support group were able to tell me with complete certainty that the birth certificate my "Mother" provided to me was a fake. It was missing really obvious things to them....like some sort of number that should be on the document, and a seal. They know all the tricks of the trade, so to speak. I wonder if other documents will have similar glaring problems.

Jan 20, 2004 I have always felt empowered, in control of my life, and safe in the world. ... If I could place my trust in an entire family that could toss me away ..., my mantra has been, "Closed for reconstruction".

I am in the tear down phase of this reconstruction. Picture a gutted-out building with spectacular plans, but right now there is still dust and rubble to be hauled off before the new stuff can enter ... that's me.

The Author requested that Jane Doe describe herself:

I graduated at the top of my class in High School, was involved in many sports, and other academic groups. Math seems to be our [Jane and her son] genetic gift. I took the National Math Test for my High School as the top math student. My son is in Algebra based on his math results from his national test results. He is receiving High School credits this year while still in middle school. ...

College was a breeze for me as well. I rarely studied outside of class and had an active social life. I graduated with a four year degree in three years. ...

I am average in every way. I have an average shoe size 7 1/2, average height, 5'7", and my weight is within a normal range... I have blue eyes, fair skin, naturally curly brunette hair. I have larger ears than the average gal ..., but I am aware that they are an unusual feature worth mentioning. [Blood type O+, no birthmarks.].

I haven't given you many specifics....mostly because I don't have many true details. My false birth name is [omitted]. My false birthday is October 24, 1963, and my false birthplace is [omitted]. This information with an official seal from the director of vital statistics for the State of [omitted] does not exist.

The only thing this information is useful for is my track record. I have never been in any legal trouble, have a work history, education, financial history, etc, linked to this name that is honorable.

What a waste, eh? ... because I don't exist in theory.

It does amaze me that I held such a high level (speaking from security and access to secure privileged locations) of freedom to [omitted]. I supposedly had the highest level of background check prior to being hired. We had fingerprinting, full background, medical records, blood work and yearly physicals as a condition of employment. For 14 years I was randomly drug and alcohol tested as an obvious requirement of such a high level of accountability and safety to the [omitted].

All this for a non-existent human being.

Jane regularly reported her research efforts:

Dr. xxx was the name of the Doctor in my records. The hospital was xxx Memorial in xxx, NY. My home address at the time of birth was xxx Street in xxx. It says I was born on Thursday at 11:37am. 7lbs 12 1/2oz. 20 inches...

I found a card from the hospital that appears to be from flowers. It even has a drop of water that ran across it. It is signed, Mxxx, Jxxx, Dxxx, and Sxxx. In another shocking card -- a Birthday card, signed Daddy, it is in the identical handwriting (a handwriting I do not recognize as my "mother or father" [of the D family]).

I cherish this card, knowing it was written by my biological father.

The day my parents left the hospital "with" me, we left in a brand new 1963 green Mercedes Benz. This story was told to me over and over. It also is written in my baby book. It actually describes the car in more detail than me. "It was a memorable drive" and so on. I DO remember this. My mother said that fathers were not allowed in the hospital in those days, so while she was delivering me, my father went out and bought her this brand new car. It didn't occur to me then, they were 19/20ish, they both didn't work, had a baby just 18-22 months older, and that he never bought a new car or other grand gift for any of the other children. There was something unique about my arrival into this world.

My Aunt told me a hundred times how shocked her parents and family were at this car. They just didn't have this kind of money. Her parents nor any family would ever be able to afford this sort of car. They assumed my "father" came from wealth. Far from the truth.

When I began looking for Wxxx's from New York, three people told me with the Mercedes story, it might be M.

In a museum owned by M, one of her works was a statue. Oddly, the body was actually her own body with a different face.

After examining photographs of M's family, Jane discerned features, such as the shape of the left ear, that were similar comparing Jane herself and M's family, which really "freaked" her out: "What freaked me out the most...his left ear. That is MY left ear!"

Jane also wrote of a book she read:

I am hacking up the quote, but too lazy to get up and find the page I copied from the book. ...It also described the way she pronounced her S's. I spent many years with a speech therapist attempting to get rid of this same almost "sputtering" sound when I say the letter S. My son incessantly teases me about this...always has. Now I tell him I am just being a Vxxx, leave me alone. (He does it too, but just doesn't see it in himself)...

Even M has some books published...

My name....xxx...is also the name of a country club owned by xxx... This is interesting because...my abductor....xxx [the D family]...had his funeral services done at xxx Country Club in Mass. at the 18th hole...the final hole...He was an avid golfer.

Recall that at the time Jane wrote the above, her working theory was that she was abducted as a baby, although this theory does not fully agree with many other facts.

As described, Jane finally obtained her Birth Certificate, which she deemed to be fraudulent based on a baptismal record. She also recalled childhood stories of riding on the shoulders of B, the famous nightly news anchor. On life with the D family, Jane wrote:

We lived in the Philippines for many months just before we moved across country. They then moved all the way across country and never paid a cent back. Father D never ever worked again when we moved from the East Coast to xxx, Washington.

In Washington state, the D family used a Post Office Box and "definitely did not get public assistance", Jane wrote.

Family cars were licensed in Massachusetts while we lived in Washington State. Their drivers license the same; out of state plates and license. We also had our next door neighbor and very close friend of my father's [D] die in a freak accident...

In the early 1980's, as a teenager, Jane left the D home, managed to go to college and get air traffic control (ATC) training and finally was hired by the FAA working as an ATC.

In 1990, Jane had a son from a marriage that later failed, and writes that he

had an odd gait or way of walking. It doesn't mirror myself or his father. He walks like he has been riding horses his whole life. He walks with his feet outward.

Meanwhile, a few years later, M's husband dies at age 93, and M inherited his entire $100 million dollar estate. A few more years later, Jane's supposed "father" D passed away, perhaps taking with him some of the truth about W's true origins. Later in the 1990's, M, now a widow in her 70s, married xxx, a 32-year-old tennis champ and aide to former Governor xxx of xxx. Shortly after their marriage, M appointed xxx president of xxx Industries, replacing xxx, her elder son.

In this period, Jane retired from her job as an Air Traffic Controller for 14 years. Her research for her true family continued. For example, she found that in 1998, her taxes had been "amended to include some sort of trust fund". Did M have a hand in this? Later she wrote to the Author, "My life was reordered April 1, 2003." About 2 months later, famous news anchor B passes away, a still mysterious figure from Jane's early childhood.

In Jan, 2004, Jane struggles to find out who she really is. She writes:

My blood type is O+. The oldest blood type. My mother [D] and three sisters are O-. This was a key discovery for me, as my sisters each had to have shots for RH factor when they delivered their children. I do not have any birthmarks. I do have a prominent widows peak, as does my son. One really significant medical condition that is not present in my family that I am treated for is psoriasis. It is a genetic condition, usually appearing with arthritis in later years. I have asked a hundred times who has it in the family and what do they use for it. There is no relative I know who has psoriasis in my family. I was once told that I had tiny cuspids (teeth) and that it was a sign of royalty. It was such a weird comment by an older co-worker at lunch one day, that I simply dismissed it. Our mouths have some odd secrets. I have a very unusual tongue. It has fissures on it. One day I was having my teeth cleaned at a dental college and the instructor asked if I would mind having the students look at my tongue because they would probably never see this in the real world and only have a book image of it otherwise. It is called something like geographia. I forget. No medical worries, just unique. xxx [W's son] then had his turn. He has supernumerary teeth below his adult teeth. Four extra teeth below his lower adult set and two more on his upper jaw. I have no idea where that came from.

Jane's observations about supposed genetic disparities with the D family and similarities with M's family appear to make sense. Further, the fact that both Jane and M exhibit a higher-than-average sex drive was also a clue. Increased sexuality occurs in a minority of the population, so two persons matched on this parameter is even less likely, as those with increased sexuality can attest regarding finding a suitable partner or mate considering this variable. These persons face the odds that the majority of the population have average or below-average sexuality levels. This is just a consequence of the well-known bell-shaped curve of human traits.

After Jane contacted the Author, research identified xxx, M's literary agent in New York City and her friend over 40 years, who was contacted by the Author to explore the possibilities, which might eventually include reunion of mother (M) and daughter (Jane).

Finally in 2004, Jane travels to the East Coast and confronts M, whom Jane now believes is her real mother. This confrontation was very public at a high-class hotel, causing quite a commotion. Jane was arrested and the press reports allege Jane was impersonating a daughter of M and the mental health of Jane was questioned. News reports also alleged that Jane was trying to claim her share of the xxx estate. It was also alleged that Jane had registered at the hotel near a famous race track using M's name. Keep in mind that M probably owns most of that particular city, perhaps even including the newspaper.

Jane told the newspaper that she did not have a birth certificate. Reportedly, Judge xxx agreed with two city psychiatrists that Jane is mentally unfit to face felony forgery charges. Eventually, charges were dropped. From that time, Jane has ceased contact with the Author and is out of contact.

Jane dropped out of communication with the Author after emailing from a public library that her computer had broken. It was several years later that the Author learned that Jane had gone cross country to provoke the news reports cited above.

Summary and Conclusion
Not only were specific names and dates redacted in the story detailed; a number of juicy items difficult to describe without specific names were simply omitted above. In other words, the full story is even more interesting.

A talented screen-writer could craft a gripping psychological thriller tracing how Jane developed from a young girl feeling out of place in the D family to the early indications that something was quite wrong, and on to her adult life with considerable achievement and responsibility as an air traffic controller and a son she cared for properly with no sign of any mental illness or defect. In her 40s, the urge to find out who she really is emerges in full force as strange unexplained things happen such as mysterious alterations in her tax returns. Finally, as the new 21st century rolls in, Jane collaborates in dozens of emails with the Author to develop a chronology which might explain her mystery.

Obviously, the news reports that Jane was mentally unfit were a cover for the real story -- that M was really Jane's biological mother, that a sordid transfer of care of baby Jane to the D family was an arrangement to cover-up one of M's love affairs. Jane had feared for years that she was a kidnapped child (by the D family), while the truth was payments to the D family to hide Jane from the Old Man. How might we calibrate the pain Jane endured? How selfish was M to have perpetrated such a plan to sacrifice the best interests of her daughter Jane to save her own skin and inheritance of multi-millions when Old Man passed on?

Finally, where is Jane and her son now? How are they doing? Are they well? Did M and Jane strike a deal involving continuing cover-up of M's deeds at Jane's birth ... perhaps with more payoffs? Or shall we just conclude that Jane finally did get "her share" of the inheritance in return for keeping quiet about this story? Will Jane write a best-selling book, once M passes away? No end to questions.
© 2011 James J Keene

Parties Agree on US Debt Ceiling: Don't Raise It

2011-07-30T18:13:00.006-04:00

News media may be engaged in distorted reporting regarding the US debt ceiling. In fact, but not reported by the media, Democrats and Republicans appear to agree that the debt ceiling should not be raised. Why is this not reported as a clear fact? Instead, all we hear is words to the effect of "failure to compromise". Compromise on what? The two parties are obviously already in complete agreement -- to wit, the debt ceiling should not be raised. Further, the two opposing political parties are engaged in every conceivable effort to ensure that the debt ceiling will not be raised. All this "need to compromise" talk in media reporting may be just a diversion to hide this complete agreement from the public.

This unreported agreement seems to have been set in motion over at least several months and may have been orchestrated by elites behind the scenes controlling key players in both the Democratic and Republican parties. With each passing day, the basic clauses of this under-the-table agreement become increasingly clear.

1. The Democratic-controlled Senate will generally not even discuss much less vote on any act raising the US debt ceiling passed by the Republican-controlled House of Representatives of Congress. This is the Senate's script to carry out their part of the agreement. There can be no increase in the US debt ceiling unless both the Senate and House agree on some enabling law to be sent to the US President for signature.

2. The Republican-controlled House in Congress likewise has agreed to vote down any US debt increasing legislation passed by the Senate. The result would be the same -- no enabling law passed by both the Senate and House to send to the President. This is the scripted role of the House and its leadership to accomplish the agreed objective of not raising the US debt ceiling.

3. US President Obama also has his role to achieve the goal of this clandestine agreement -- no increase in the debt ceiling. The President's role is to veto any enabling legislation that might arrive at his desk. His script is basically a back-up in case something goes wrong and as a result, the Senate and House do agree on legislation to increase the debt limit. Should strategy components #1 or #2 above fail, the President is scripted to "save the day" for the clandestine objective, his veto preventing a debt limit increase.

Notice that the hidden agreement implements a well-crafted plan to achieve its objective. Success by only one of parties #1 or #2 -- Senate or House -- in blocking enabling legislation is sufficient. In the event of failure of both House and Senate to play their role in the agreed script, player #3, the President, can pull victory for the agreed plan from the jaws of defeat by vetoing any debt increase legislation, as the President has carefully established a multitude of reasons which can be invoked to justify his veto. Why do you think the President is on TV almost every day? He must have a wide variety of rationales for an upcoming veto, if needed, on the public record. The under-the-table plan, of course, hopes to avoid any legislation on the matter from reaching the President's desk. But if enabling legislation does arrive, we can hear the words justifying a veto already, "As I have said repeatedly, [fill in one or more pre-established rationales here]".

Of course, this agreement cannot be reported to the public since considerable economic pain will result if the debt limit is not increased. The above roles of Senate, House and President provide each with a cover story to justify their actions to carry out the pre-determined plan to stop any further increase in the US debt limit. In each case, the cover story involves principles which each party purports to uphold -- all the blather reported in the media -- such as no new taxes vs new taxes or revenue increases, amendments to the US Constitution, and the like.

As of this writing, Saturday evening, each of the three parties listed above to this clandestine agreement are playing their roles with news media following every blow in this cover-story melodrama, intended to hide the existence of a firm plan to prevent any further US debt limit increase.

Obviously, the cover stories are needed since none of the three players above want to be seen as intentionally causing substantial economic suffering for the general population, even though each player is no doubt aware that severe economic pain is in the cards and that the only real question is just how deep and prolonged it will be.

Why would the powers-that-be, apparently able to control both major political parties and the President in the US, want to orchestrate events resulting in the pain that no debt increase would entail? The short answer is that this short-term pain is perceived to be better for the net profits of this powerful elite than the greater pain that would eventually result if further US debt was added resulting in an even greater and longer pain and financial collapse at a somewhat later time.

Ironically, the premise of this article asserts, in effect, that the power elite may indeed have come to agree with most observers that a shorter-term pain involved in clearing unpayable debts off the books, letting the chips fall where they may, followed by a true, robust recovery perhaps with an improved gold/silver-backed monetary unit, is better than a greater and more prolonged economic collapse associated with further increase in unpayable debt. Of course, the powerful, behind-the-scenes designers and orchestators of this plan made their choice -- no more US debt vs more US debt -- based on a single criterion: which option would be more profitable for them in the longer run. Nonetheless, if this analysis is correct, happily, this plan and the resulting under-the-table agreement may not only be most beneficial for the super-wealthy, but also for the general public.

Keene Vindicated, Innocent

2011-06-24T22:17:00.009-04:00

Yesterday, a jury of nine Dominicans in the High Court here unanimously found that I was innocent of a bogus arrest charge some 2 and 1/2 years ago on Feb. 6, 2009. At that time I was buying scrap gold and silver as a public service and as an investment, and cooperating with police by keeping records of who sold what on what dates, to assist police in law enforcement.

I had voluntarily turned my entire inventory of purchases over to the police for inspection. A man's gold bracelet was found to have been stolen by somebody at some prior time. For my help in solving this crime, I thought I would get some thanks and a ticket to the policeman's ball, so to speak, but instead I was arrested for receiving stolen property "dishonestly", "knowing and believing" it was stolen, which of course was pure nonsense.

Friends among Baha'is, among users of my HotBasic software and many others around the world have been worried about this situation for over two years. Finally, the verdict yesterday. The prosecution could not convince even a single juror that I was guilty, since the "dishonestly" part was the only element in question. Here only 7 of 9 are needed for a verdict of guilt or innocence, but in this case it was 9 - 0 in my favor. What a relief!

This morning I got calls from friends here in Dominica -- every news media carried the result of this trial as their lead story this morning. So I write this short post to inform friends abroad of this news. Thanks to all who supported me in this ordeal over several years.
© 2011 James J Keene

Binary Mechanics Updated

2011-04-04T01:29:00.005-04:00

I am now essentially facing the death penalty here in Dominica because I was a crime victim wrongly subjected to false arrest in Feb, 2009, as described previously. Having been wrongly denied legal representation in the Preliminary Inquiry, Oct 28, 2010, I now face jury trial in the High Court on June 22, 2011. While I am confident of being found innocent, there is already evidence of a possible attempt to deny a fair trial by denying access to key evidence. Also, I've been informed that if convicted, I would be taken into custody and imprisoned immediately.

Since these days before the trial might be my last, I have concentrated on updating binary mechanics. In addition to the evidence supporting the theory presented in the original 1994 paper, recent articles have clarified many issues and made predictions, such as absolute maximum temperature, which have been supported by reported computer simulation work.

Motive For Persecution

2010-11-14T06:39:00.027-05:00

[Update May 24, 2011. As a result of being denied an attorney at the Oct. 28, 2010, Preliminary Inquiry as described below, the matter is now set for trial on June 22, 2011, in the High Court in Roseau, the capital. Since it is unlikely that the author (Dr. Keene) would survive prison here, it now boils down to "Professor faces death penalty for buying jewelry in Dominica".]
I have been persecuted by agencies of the Commonwealth of Dominica -- certain police and its Department of Public Prosecution (DPP) since February, 2009, as described in detail at the Kidnapped by Police in Dominica web site which

presents the true and unfinished story of the persecution and near-death experience of Dr. James Keene, a medical school professor, at the hands of police in the Commonwealth of Dominica. The "Testimony" and "Updates" links tell a frightening account of kidnapping, extortion, false arrest and imprisonment and apparent robbery by police and denial of legal representation in the Oct. 28, 2010, Preliminary Inquiry hearing in District Court G.

I have no clear idea why I have been unjustly targeted and herein consider possible motives for this persecution including cover-up of mistakes by certain police, financial gain, eliminate competition, a corrupt physician, religious persecution because I am a member of the Baha'i Faith, a minority religion, and shutdown of Ross University School of Medicine.

The Persecution
Imagine my shock and dismay when I was helping police solve a jewelry theft and cooperating with police in law enforcement, when my efforts revealed I had been a victim of fraud -- somebody sold to me a stolen gold wrist band, and instead of being cheered by police, I was arrested, jailed, cuffed and by a hair, was almost sent to the StockFarm Prison to await a court hearing.

As set forth in detail, I was a Ross University Professor of NeuroPhysiology (1993-1998) and a supporter of Dominica, recommending to all contacts that they visit this beautiful "Nature Island" to support its tourism industry. As a published scientist and educator, I have no prior police record -- no previous arrests, convictions, etc, and indeed, was merely a peaceful semi-retired resident up to the 2009 events.

I was known as helping my neighbors financially and otherwise and engaged in physics research -- Binary Mechanics, which might develop into a significant theory, bringing acclaim to Dominica. As a resident of Dominica for some 17 years since late 1993, I had bought some land and was building a more permanent residence to replace the simple, temporary shed with corrugated roof, for storage, where I now live. Most of my meager savings had been committed to helping the economy of Dominica paying for construction materials and workers.

A major source of economic development for Dominica is retirees. Their places need to be built and they pay for goods and services. This entire trend might be in jeopardy given the unjust treatment I have received.

Obviously, I do not fit the profile of a criminal and had no motive to profit from buying stolen goods, much less, being a U.S. citizen, in a foreign country. Thus, the question of the motive for this persecution arises. Why? Why me?

Motive: Cover-up of Police Mistakes
As the cited web site describes, it appears that one or more police officers including Sgt. Cuffy, made some elementary, but very serious mistakes in handling their investigation on Feb. 5-6, 2009. Some of these are listed in this Police Academy 101 commentary.

Could the motive for my continuing persecution over some 21 months simply be to serve as a cover-up for these mistakes? Way back in early 2009, I had presented this "out" to authorities -- namely, drop the false arrest for lack of evidence and we all go back to our peaceful, routine lives.

Government authorities have been very slow to proceed in this matter, for unknown reasons. Certainly, this case is a tremendous threat to tourism to Dominica and a number of endeavors which rely, in great part, on foreign experts. What if all these people were to leave for fear of being persecuted as I have been? Well, a conservative estimate is that the whole country would shut down -- the banks, the tourism, the retiree industry, places like Ross University, which hires hundreds of locals, etc.

On the other hand, maybe the position of authorities has hardened, since I put up the cited web site on this story. One can understand that, but from my point of view, my life was in jeopardy, I felt very alone and helpless and it seemed there was no option except to protect myself, so to speak, by setting forth the facts of the case, if only so my dear children might know the truth about their father in this matter.

On the Dominica government site, one finds that a Cuffy also has a high position in the government. Could this indicate that Sgt. Cuffy is being protected from his own mistakes by continued persecution of me?

Motive: Financial Gain
On Feb. 5, 2009, I voluntarily brought to the police station some 300 gold and silver jewelry items that I had purchased in a "Cash For Jewelry" activity as a way to invest in gold and silver. The prior evening (Feb. 4), Sgt. Cuffy, Corp. Austrie and Constable Henri had visited my place hoping to find, with clear urgency, a stolen gold bracelet. Thus, on the subsequent morning (Feb. 5), I took all the items I had that were purchased from Dec. 2008 to the present (Feb. 5). However, the particular bracelet was not in that inventory.

During the day, in what I consider to be sloppy police work, I learned that the robbery of the bracelet in question occurred months ago, in the Aug. 2008 to Nov. 2008 period. I immediately indicated that I had more purchased items from that earlier period. For safety, I had buried these items, so we went back to my place to retrieve those items.

Had I known from Feb. 4 the period in which the robbery took place, I would have known that these buried items were more likely to include the stolen bracelet and not those I voluntarily brought to the police station from later purchases, from Dec. 2008 on, which Sgt. Cuffy had already determined did not include the stolen bracelet on the evening of Feb. 4.

So we went to get the additional earlier purchases. This blew the idea of burying jewelry for safety. Anyway, I had no idea if the sought-after bracelet was in those buried items, although I hoped it was there, to help the police recover it, even though I would loose the fair market purchase price of $1500 ECC for its gold content. Nonetheless, I was very happy that Sgt. Cuffy found the stolen bracelet in these early purchases.

While at my place, the officers including Corp. Francis were remarking that they liked the lots I had purchased and would like to have them for themselves. It finally turned out that after the Feb. 6 false arrest, I had to post bail, including my U.S. Passport, $15,000 ECC cash and the title to my land, which was owned free and clear. Further, the bail statement stipulated I had to report and sign in at the police station every Monday.

Adding insult to injury, Sgt. Cuffy kept my almost 300 gold and silver jewelry items for almost a year, and provided no signed receipt to me, contrary to proper police procedure.

Could it be that the severe pressure on my person was intended to scare me with the hope I might flee for my life, leaving Dominica, and therefore forfeit all that had been posted for bail, not to mention almost 300 jewelry items. As an honest person of integrity, I have not left and stand to face this continuing persecution, hopefully with success.

But, yes, I am scared. Fast forward to the Oct. 28, 2010, Preliminary Inquiry (arraignment) hearing, which is remarkable in that it proceeded although I had no legal representation because my previous lawyer for some 21 months had been appointed Attorney General of Dominica and had not yet found a replacement attorney for me. Thus, in the free, democratic country of Dominica, we have precedent for court proceedings against an accused where no legal representation was present. This is even more scary.

For one year and nine months, my Atty. Levi Peter was present and this very long period involved repeated concessions to the prosecution for delays because they were not ready to proceed. Yet on the first occasion where my attorney could not attend, for legitimate reasons, I get no delay. The Magistrate just proceeded and I was crushed.

Not only was I helpless without legal representation, but new testimony was added that was not in the disclosure materials provided to my defense by the prosecution. A completely new item was provided in the exact same words by both Jackie Lewis and Sgt. Cuffy who testified that when the bracelet was found, I had said, "I don't know anything about it."

I maintain that this absurd statement is a complete fabrication. What is "it", that I supposedly knew nothing about? Well, if "it" is the stolen bracelet identified at the police station, how is it possible that I knew nothing about it? Indeed, I was the one who purchased it months ago, and provided it for police inspection. Obviously, I knew about it and was glad that it was found. Prior to this point, I did not know that I had the bracelet in question, since that purchase was months ago and exact recollection of details of some 300 items was not to be expected.

In sum, this supposed "don't know anything about it" statement makes no sense. Further, university professors do not speak in such phrases, although Dominican locals do. Could it be that this fabrication was designed to work against me by implying that I was denying any guilt. To some extent, it is true that from the begining of this disgraceful episode, I have maintained that I was defrauded by the stolen bracelet sellors, which included Jackie Lewis, who, as far as I know, has not been charged with any crime. Is this because he agreed to testify to this "don't know anything" nonsense, in the hope of collaborating Sgt. Cuffy's new testimony and of somehow supporting the ridiculous idea that I was a criminal?

Motive: Eliminate Competition
In fact, I was paying as much as 75 percent more for jewelry than others on the island of Dominica. This is established by a 14K gold ring I bought for $240 ECC whereas Julian Jewellers in Roseau was offering only $137.50 ECC. Other competing buyers were a group known as "the Venezualans".

As a result, almost all sellers of gold or silver jewelry came to my place to get the best, fair price. Not only was I paying more than other buyers on the island, I was also paying more than "Cash4Gold" outfits in the U.S. advertising on cable TV.

Since I was paying fair market value for gold or siliver content, had a "Cash for Jewelry" sign by the road in front of my place, and advertized same in the local newspapers over many weeks, it is all but impossible that I was operating an illegal fence buying stolen property. Everybody knows that fence operators pay only a small fraction, say 10 percent, of fair value, since they risk going to prison if caught.

Could it be that competing gold and silver buyers somehow inspired Sgt. Cuffy to put me out of business? That would be a clear motive for this persecution. As it happens, I am finished buying gold and silver items as an investment for several reasons -- one being the danger in doing so as this story attests and the other that I completed the amount I wanted to invest. Thus, the other buyers now have no competition, and therefore there could be no more motive for my persecution in the eliminating competition category.

Motive: A Corrupt Physician
As described elsewhere in the Missing Keene Kids case, going way back to Feb. 1, 1995, when my two dear children were kidnapped by their disturbed mother, Dr. Philip Cooles and his wife Sandra, were involved in both the actual kidnapping and in a continuing campaign to discredit me and drive me from Dominica, motivated, I speculate, by a need to cover-up what I view as dishonest, unethical and possibly criminal involvement in the child abduction episode described in part in section 8 of On Being Shunned.

Could it be that my continuing love for and residence in Dominica is seen by the Cooles as an unpleasant reminder of this skeleton in their closet? If so, would this motivate some effort by Dr. Cooles to further discredit my good name? Consider that Dr. Cooles may be seen as a powerful member of the Dominican establishment, being a cardiac physician, with plenty of patients, many in high government positions.

This line of thought suggests questions like:
1. Does Dr. Cooles know Sgt. Cuffy?

2. And for Sgt. Cuffy, does he know Dr. Cooles?Another incident may support the idea that Dr. Cooles continues to be "anti-Keene" in his behavior. I recently found the Nature Island blog of several young Baha'i women who were conducting a public service project including children's classes in the Carribe Reserve area of Dominica. I emailed them that I was also a Baha'i and might help them in some way. They promptly replied. Then in a very pleasant phone conversation about me visiting them in the Carribe Reserve, one item was if I knew fellow Baha'i Dr. Cooles. I said, "Yes, of course," and that was that.

Now, for some unknown reason, these two Baha'is have stopped returning my phone calls and replying to my emails. Could it be that Dr. Cooles guided them to shun me? Very strange events, since Baha'is tend to be loving, open and straight-forward persons. What explains this atypical behavior?

Of course, this 1995 kidnapping of my children -- James Rogers Keene and Grace Josephine Keene, last known to be in New Jersey, has led to years of grief for the author. It may be of interest that the Cooles children probably also know the real facts of what happened on Feb. 1, 1995, the day of the abduction, because the abducted children were first taken by Sandra Cooles to their home, where those Cooles children were likely to be present, before being spirited to the airport to make their criminal escape from Dominica. In short, it is humbly suggested that Dr. Cooles "come clean" about his behavior over all these years if only to reestablish some semblence of integrity as a physician and father to his children.

Motive: Religious Persecution
The foregoing comments emphasize that persecution can be very tangible and frightening, but the motive for the persecution can be difficult to establish with certainty. For completeness, Baha'is are severely persecuted for religious reasons in some countries, such as Iran where imprisonment and execution of Baha'is has happened all too often. At present, many prominant Baha'is are in prison in Iran.

Dominica is a free, English-speaking country with a constitution and belief in religious freedom. So the short answer is that there is no specific evidence that my persecution here is in the religious intolerance category. Indeed, over the years, I have attended many Christian church services here and it is well known that I support religion in general as seen in the important church activities which I think strengthen the moral fiber and stability of the society.

Motive: Ross University Shutdown
Given the difficulty in finding a motive for my persecution over almost two years here, one might consider a more surprising concept -- namely, that my persecution is a warning shot of forces in the country of Dominica who want to shut down tourism and endeavors like Ross University School of Medicine.

Consider that Ross University owns a lot of property with an elaborate infrastructure of fine buildings featuring office space for faculty, huge lecture halls, numerous labs and other support structures, etc. In brief, this property is worth a lot of money.

In this context, there may be some perverted rationale in the mystery of why a previous Ross University professor would be treated in such an illegal and unconstitutional manner, up to and including a near-death experience and most recently (Oct. 28, 2010) court proceedings in a criminal matter (the Feb. 6, 2009 false arrest) without allowing for legal representation. Namely, the objective may be to shut down the tourist industry and Ross University and like endeavors on the island.

Imagine. If Ross faculty and students knew they could carted off to prison without any recourse, the whole bunch would be on planes leaving the island that same day.

This speculation goes to underscore how absurd this whole case is. I have agreed to remove the "Kidnapped..." web site cited above and further to refrain from any lawsuit against the government, if this bogus case is simply dropped. All I want is to return to my peaceful, constructive projects mentioned above.

Conclusion
I have been living with this unfortunate unjustice for almost two years now and it continues to be a significant source of stress, given I may wind up in prison if sanity does not prevail. Prison here might well be equivalent to a death sentence.

I feel alone and somewhat helpless although there is still good reason to believe that the Dominican justice system will function fairly in the end. On the other hand, I break my silence in this blog on this matter, in the hope that maybe some friends, Baha'is or others, in Dominica or far off lands, might help in some way.

For example, on the Kidnapped... site, there is a contact list of Dominican authories which might be of interest. Meanwhile, God bless you for reading.
© 2010 James J Keene

T-Bond Short Round Trip

2010-10-15T16:56:00.007-04:00

Per Independent suggestions, today we rung the cash register as we completed our first round trip in our short of 30-year T-Bonds using the TBT 2x Short ETF. Let's review the trade and think about what comes next.

The suggestion was to tip-toe into a short position by buying lots (100 shares) to build a core position. First, the suggested order before market open was

Buy 100 TBT Limit Price 32.50 AON

and on that morning, TBT opened at 32.47, so we remember that price. It was suggested to buy a number of lots equivalent to 25 percent of the overall core position.

Second, in that same posting, Independent suggested "we are only starting a minimal short position, ready to add to it only when prices are much lower for TBT, say, below 30..." If this was followed, this order would have been placed:

Buy 100 TBT Limit Price 30.00 AON

and some days later would have been filled, resulting in an average purchase price of 31.235 -- (32.47 + 30.00) / 2, representing 50 percent of a core position.

Third, in an update in the comments section of the same article, the suggestion was to take profits on this TBT position if TLT (a long bond ETF) dropped to 100. Well, today it did and ca-ching, we rung the cash register. At that point (when TLT penetrated 100 moving down), TBT was at 34.35 which is therefore our nominal sale price.

In sum, we are now flat (no position) in TBT and have booked a profit of 3.115 points (34.35 - 31.235), which represents a 9.97 percent gain on funds invested. In dollars, these 3.115 points represent $311.50 per lot traded. If you had a minimum position of two lots, that would be $623 profit minus commissions.

For the record, let's calculate the commissions using Scottrade's $7 rate. We have three trades -- 2 buys of 100 shares each, and one sale of 200 shares. That is $21 (3 x 7), so the profit is just above $600 counting commissions (in a trade where a significant part of $6000 in funds was at risk).

Notice that a person doing the above with 10 times the funds, would have netted $6230 (10 x $623) minus $21 commissions. I mention this only to point out that broker commissions are a trivial part of the equation, even with 100 share lots, but more so with larger volume (number of lots). That is, whether it is 2 lots or 20 lots, the total commission for the transactions is the same -- $21.

For the future, the suggestion remains more or less the same -- tip-toe into a TBT (short long T-Bonds) position. Here are two orders you can place right now to get back in, so to speak:

Buy 100 TBT Limit Price 31.50 AON

Buy 100 TBT Limit Price 28.50 AON

Should both be filled, one would have a 50 percent core position with average price of $30. This is going to require a significant dip in the S&P500 and/or some more money printing by the Fed (Google "quantitative easing"). By taking profits above, we now have a liability -- holding fiat currency cash, which can depreciate fast at about any time. But so it must be, to have funds in reserve for opportunities that may arise.

OTHER POSITIONS
Our physical gold and silver positions are way ahead. Of course, the strong recommendation is to take physical delivery. However, CEF is a gold/silver fund where shares can be purchased in a brokerage account. At present, it is near all-time highs so you want to look for pull-backs before any larger purchases.

FAZ (short big banks) is perhaps ready to make significant gains as people realize that the target price for these bank stocks is zero. Remember, when a bank is liquidated, the common share holders are likely to get approximately nothing. The recent news on mortgage issues and open talk about "breaking up too-big-to-fail" banks is definitely bearish (favorable for FAZ). Before long, lamp-posts in New York, London and elsewhere will start to have names affixed to them -- one for each banker to be hanged. Speculation revolves around the question: are there enough lamp-posts?

Our suggested SDS position (short S&P500) is a bit underwater trading about 10 percent below our purchase price. If you did not do this short (buying SDS), you can start it now at even better (lower) prices. If you do not yet have a full core position in SDS you can price-average down by adding one or more lots at present levels.

However, in none of these positions should one overextend oneself risking margin calls where you are forced to take a loss. Remember the gambler or the amateur both have a tendency to "bet the farm" with get-rich-quick delusions. These are the folks that loose their money fast because they are "weak hands". Indeed, the sorts of trades recommended here are often designed precisely to find and challenge the weak hands.

One such case is "price-chasing" which can result in buying at the highs. Indeed, I've mentioned various gold/silver mining stocks and also DBA, which is mostly grain/food commodities. Both have rallied a lot but I have not yet made specific recommendations since in this forum, I'm looking for quite safe entry points (that is, price dips). And this is where my own activity differs from suggestions here. I have been long gold/silver stocks and DBA since their lows in 2009. If readers are interested in those sectors, I'll keep looking for a reasonable entry point to suggest. For now, all I can say is to tip-toe into positions on big down days.

Here are some of the gold/silver mining stocks I now hold or are on a buy list at price dips, in alphabetical order:

AXU, AZK, BGMCF, CDE, MDW, MGN, OGLDF, RIC, SNSFD, THM, TLR, TRGD

© 2010 James J Keene

Thank You, Illuminati

2010-09-26T13:50:00.002-04:00

Let us take time to give praise and thanks to some of the worst criminals of our era -- a super-wealthy oligarchy of elitists who strive to further concentrate wealth and political power in their hands with the help of their three stooges: governments, the banking cartel and mass media. This tiny elite has excelled in legalized counterfeiting while the overwhelming majority of the population works to earn an honest living.

Thousands of 28 lb bars of 24-carat gold stored in the Bank of England's massive underground vault

Readers might cut and paste these thank-you letters and send them off to their respective New World Order proponents.

Rothschild Bank
1 King William Street
London
UK
EC4N 7AR

Dear sirs:

Please forward this to the family members that pull the strings for their puppet Central Banks including the Bank of England and the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank.

The fractional reserve system, charging nations interest for printing their fiat currencies, the control of governments to tax their people to pay for your banking mistakes and your other schemes to pillage the wealth of nations and their citizens are ingenious. Congratulations.

Special thanks for accumulating gold and most especially, putting all the gold bars in vaults in a relatively few, easy-to-find places. Yes, one can marvel at the many photographs published of stacks of gold bars from floor to ceiling in those vaults.

Let us assume that you have accumulated all this gold to return it to the people who earned it. Needless to say, the people will soon be coming to get their gold. Recall that the same people who built the vaults have the skills to disassemble them. Also, they have the jack hammers, torches and other demolition equipment required.

If it would not be too much trouble, could you please melt all those gold bars and produce one oz. coins? This would make the distribution of the gold hoards to their rightful owners much more convenient to implement.

Many thanks and most cordially,
[Signature here]
[Your name here]

In the U.S., the list of gold hoard sites is probably topped by 33 Liberty St. in New York City and Fort Knox, which, alas, may have only fake gold bars (gold-plated tungsten).

One might forecast a rather messy situation when millions of people surround major gold storage vaults. Such "Get Your Gold" rallies -- or better, encampments -- of millions could, however, be a totally peaceful transfer of power. For the U.S., this would amount to about one oz. of gold per person.

The old maxim is "He who has the gold rules". At present, the major gold hoarders include the banking cartel with their Central Banks and international front organizations such as the IMF and BIS. Hence, the cartel rules. The corresponding governments and their people are the ruled. According to the maxim, the only way for the people to achieve freedom is (A) to store their own wealth (resulting from labor and production) in gold and silver -- real money before the fiat currency system collapses and (B) recover gold wealth taken previously through fiat currency fraud.

Thank you, J P Morgan Chase

Jamie Dimon, Chairman and CEO
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
270 Park Avenue
New York, NY 10017-2070

Dear Mr. Dimon,

The undersigned wish to extend their profound thanks to you, J P Morgan Chase, and your fellow "too big to fail" bullion banks, for your unprecedented and most generous "Going Out of Business" sale for gold and silver. The small investor and working people with disposable income to add to savings have seldom been blessed with the opportunity to place savings in assets like gold and silver at deep-discount, artificially suppressed prices, mostly due to your naked short selling.

Perhaps your most beneficent contribution is the huge J P Morgan naked short position in silver. With above-ground supplies of silver much less than those of gold, your position is heroic, given that silver price could surpass gold price.

While it is rumored that J P Morgan is slowly covering its silver short positions, it would be most appreciated if you and colleagues could knock down precious metal price one last time, with silver to, say, $10 - $15 USD per once.

Sincerely,
[Signature here]
[Your name here]

As far as I know, Independent is the first to consider the plausible forecast that silver price could exceed gold price, based on the simple fundamental that gold supply vastly exceeds silver supply. Consider that platinum is more scarce than gold and commands a higher price than gold. Now think about the relative scarcity of silver with respect to gold. You read it here first.
© 2010 James J Keene

Infallibility Verdict

2010-09-14T16:06:00.013-04:00

Infallibility Artifice debunked the bogus idea that Universal House of Justice (UHJ) statements are infallible, based on official Baha'i sources and the simple model shown below. After weeks of deliberation in the court of public discussion including comments by readers of that report, it appears that a verdict is in with an apparent victory for the interests of the Baha'i Faith and its institutions. This article adds some common sense to the logic based on official sources in the previous report to further support this verdict and victory.

History Speaks
From the founding of the Baha'i Faith by Baha'u'llah in 1863 to 1963, when the UHJ was first elected, based on an enormous amount of dedicated work by Baha'is around the world, Baha'is lived and their faith prospered and grew without this bogus idea that UHJ statements (output in the figure above) are infallible. Generally speaking, this movement was energized by the crystal clear message -- such as oneness of God, religion and mankind -- articulated by Baha'u'llah and his successors.

Fast forward to 1963, when I became a Baha'i. At that time, in Chicago, applicants for membership had to attend a number of firesides and had to read and be prepared to answer questions about the Will and Testament of 'Abdu'l-Baha, son of Baha'u'llah and authorized interpreter of his father's teachings. To finalize the membership process, I was required to meet with the Local Spiritual Assembly (LSA) of Chicago -- the elected administrative body, for an interview about my enrollment application, related experiences and the assigned reading.

The interview was very warm and cordial with many questions from the LSA members, and I was officially enrolled then and there. This entire process proceeded smoothly without the slightest hint, in either the assigned readings or from any Baha'i at the firesides or on the LSA that UHJ decisions were purported to be infallible.

In subsequent years, I had the opportunity to attend many U.S. National Baha'i Conventions, Baha'i schools and other activities and to hear talks by some of the most outstanding leaders of the development of the Baha'i community of that era. These included Hands of the Cause (appointees of Shoghi Effendi, Guardian from 1921 to 1957), such as Mr. Sears, Mr. Khadem, Mr. Samadari and several others.

Not a single one of these learned individuals ever attempted to burden the Baha'i community with their own theological inventions or personal theories, as we now so often hear from supposedly learned speakers including some Counsellors and others. If this is true, what else could they have talked about? The answer is simple, although it may seem to have been completely lost among many speakers in recent times -- namely, they spoke of the magnificent status of the centers of the Baha'i Faith from Baha'u'llah through the UHJ, using actual statements from the Baha'i writings, not thoughts that they made up which do not appear in the Baha'i writings. How did they ever manage being restricted to official statements by the founder Baha'u'llah and subsequent centers of the Faith ('Abdu'l-Baha, Shoghi Effendi and the UHJ)? But manage they did, and the Baha'i community grew in those years.

In this period of some 120 years (1863 to the early 1980's), the Baha'i Faith did not need any amendment to Baha'i scripture to the effect that UHJ statements are infallible.

However, after about 120 years, some self-styled genius apparently decided that Baha'i scripture was "not good enough" and needed additions. Of course, the implication was that Baha'u'llah and 'Abdu'l-Baha had somehow failed to explicitly state that UHJ decisions are infallible, and this genius would save us all by correcting this presumed omission from the Baha'i writings.

Repetition Matters
In recent decades, an apparently well-organized society within the Baha'i community, designated as insurgents in a previous article, used the propaganda principle that a falsehood repeated over and over might eventually be accepted as truth. Thus, we see in recent decades that participants in this self-appointed society repeat their bogus theories about the UHJ in almost every talk they give. And could it be coincidence that many authors agree that the Baha'i community slowed its growth and even lost thousands of members in exactly this same period?

The game works as follows. They act as if Baha'u'llah and 'Abdu'l-Baha "forgot" to state that UHJ decisions are infallible. They attempt with noteworthy success to cite other statements from the writings, which uncritical, untrained minds will sum up to imply or actually assert the missing proposition in the writings. Voila. Good talkers can create their own teachings for the Baha'i community and achieve some success in having their personal musings accepted as if they were part of Baha'i scripture. It is sort of like "Prophet for a day". Here is a simple example:

Suppose that you always wanted to be a prophet of God with all the trappings, followers, etc. You decide that Baha'u'llah "forgot" to state that "war is good". You find a few quotes, say, about self-defense and an international police force or whatever, and weave a story that really this scripture states that "war is good". You repeat this over and over and even include your personal revelation that "war is good" in books used as Baha'i study guides. With some luck, you get a whole generation of Baha'is professing that "war is good", oblivious to the fact that Baha'u'llah never said such an absurd idea. If listeners who are literate raise any questions, as a last resort you might find a single comment in a letter written by a secretary of Shoghi Effendi to buttress your new "war is good" theology.

However, the present premise is that the verdict is in. The jig is over for the false prophets repeating and repeating, almost as a litmus test for believers, their personal theory that UHJ statements are infallible.

Master of Precision
Yes, repetition matters. And not only in propaganda. It is a genuine source of beauty how Baha'i scripture repeats over and over in a precise manner key points covered in Infallibility Artifice. In the last weeks, in the "Comments" section, readers have provided additional quotes from the writings which all further support the debunking of this "Dial a Scripture" wizardry, which is a failed attempt to make a "new" Baha'i Faith, as if the previous one was less than adequate.

In particular, please consider the quotes from 'Abdu'l-Baha, known as "the Master". Let us suppose that these several quotes arise from authorized translations of talks and writings over some extended period. Now notice the complete consistency and how key points are precisely repeated in slightly different terms over time. One must conclude that 'Abdu'l-Baha knew exactly what he was saying and exactly what he was not saying, and maintained this clarity and precision over time, when discussing topics related to UHJ input such as divine guidance, that this institution was divinely ordained in Baha'u'llah's revelation, with words to the effect that its decisions are the closest thing possible to realizing the will of God for the Baha'i community and so forth.

Next let us notice that 'Abdu'l-Baha did not lack self-discipline and blurt out "UHJ decisions are infallible", or any words whatsoever to that effect, at any point during this period. His ministry spanned 1892 to 1921 so he had plenty of time to make such a significant point (and Baha'u'llah, also, from 1863 to 1892) if that was in fact to be an official attribute of the UHJ.

All of the other basic and very important Baha'i teachings are stated in simple, clear and usually very short, pithy sentences. E.g., the earth is one country and mankind its citizens (Baha'u'llah). So thanks to the comments of Independent readers, we have additional debunking evidence. Either Baha'i scripture has failed us by omitting the statement that UHJ decisions are infallible, or Baha'i scripture is in fact complete on this issue -- namely, many issues are repeatedly stated without even a single statement with the text "...are infallible" with words to the effect that the subject of the sentence is "UHJ decisions". That such a statement does not exist is more strongly supported as the volume of the quotes on the UHJ without it increases.

It is also common sense that if such a statement existed in Baha'i scripture, it would have been produced by our arm-chair theologians years ago.

Take your pick: Baha'i scripture was successful on this issue (the statement does not exist) or Baha'i scripture failed but some Baha'i wandering around somewhere has the magical answer because Baha'u'llah and 'Abdu'l-Baha failed to come up with goods.

Votes Count
With simple common sense, further debunking is possible. The nine elected members of the UHJ are said to consult on issues and vote as might be necessary to reach a conclusion. Why is there a research department to help the members become informed of relevant data and scripture? If there is "unerring guidance of God", a childish, magical interpretation might imply that they could just vote immediately.

And this does not explain why some issues may take more time to process than others. Is God so limited? If the decision is infallible, why dilly-dally around? Just vote and move on.

And in a split vote, say 5 to 4, are the five better vehicles to "hear" the divine guidance and the 4 are dummies? What if the 5 (or majority) consists of different persons in different votes. Can the dummies become perfect receptacles over night?

Finally, Douglas Martin and Peter Khan, both proponents of their personal vision of a new, modified Baha'i Faith as cited in the "Outputs" section of "Infallibility Artifice", were members of the UHJ itself. It is a major fact of the matter that these two, with whatever support they had over many years among other UHJ members, never succeeded in getting five or more votes for the UHJ to proclaim, contrary to scripture and in violation of its own Constitution, that its decisions were infallible.

Nonetheless, one must marvel at the number of Baha'is who appear to have swallowed -- what should we call it? -- the Martin-Khan doctrine in spite of the fact that their bogus theory has no basis in official Baha'i sources and no written, public support from the UHJ itself.

It is a further testament to the power of propaganda repetition that this doctrine, as a direct assault on the credibility of the UHJ, caused damage to the interests of the Baha'i Faith on so many fronts that another article or even a complete book would be required to begin recounting the ways.

To conclude with a positive note, this sorry episode may also be seen as a tribute to the strength of the UHJ, indeed, as promised by Baha'u'llah, that it could have at least two members, for so long a time, Martin and Khan, who wittingly or unwittingly, were running around the world misrepresenting and thereby diminishing the status of the UHJ, and perhaps recruiting other Baha'is to support them, in effect, acting in direct opposition to the plans and hopes of the UHJ for Baha'i growth and development. Could you, dear reader, have done that? Have had so much patience? Let us call that a sign of strength of the institution to have been forced to deal with such a difficult situation.
© 2010 James J Keene

Infallibility Artifice

2010-08-21T16:52:00.007-04:00

According to official Baha'i sources, certain inputs to, and the design of, The Universal House of Justice (UHJ) may possess an attribute of infallibility, which does not necessarily extend to UHJ outputs. This working hypothesis is based on a simple "black box" model shown in the figure and a brief literature survey.The major result is that individuals, without any authority based on Baha'i scripture, may have wrongly described UHJ outputs -- its writings and actions -- as infallible, which can be an unnecessary source of confusion and distortion of the unique attributes of the Baha'i administration, to the detriment of the Baha'i world community.

INPUTS

As a world religion founded in 1863 by Baha'u'llah, who claimed to be a messenger or manifestation of God, the Baha'i Faith teaches that God is key in both the inputs to and the design of the UHJ.

1892-1921
Referring to the Ministry of 'Abdu'l-Baha, son of Baha'u'llah, the official Baha'i web site writes:

'Abdu'l-Baha confirms that the Universal House of Justice is "under the protection and the unerring guidance of God."

Note the adjective "unerring" might be considered as redundant or for emphasis, if it is assumed that "guidance of God" would be unerring, infallible, etc.

1972
In the Constitution of the UHJ, referring to its elected members, Shoghi Effendi, the Guardian of the Bahá'í Faith (1921-1957), is quoted;

"God will verily inspire them with whatsoever He willeth", is Bahá'u'lláh's incontrovertible assurance. They ... have thus been made the recipients of the divine guidance...

where "divine guidance" is, of course, an UHJ input.

2003
Individual Baha'is have echoed this thinking. Brent Poirier wrote:

...the House of Justice is infallibly guided when it legislates to fill the gaps intentionally left by Baha'u'llah in the fabric of His laws.

with the focus on the input of promised divine guidance.

Naturally, the facts pertaining to any matter, along with relevant teachings in Baha'i scripture, are also very significant inputs to the decision-making process of the UHJ.

DESIGN

First elected in 1963, the UHJ is the highest administrative body and also the spiritual center of the Baha'i community. As such, its decisions have a "final and binding" attribute.

The ideas regarding divine guidance cited above may also be considered as part of its design. The design of the Baha'i Administration, including its top body -- the UHJ, is a vast subject beyond the scope of this article. In aggregate, this rather unique system no doubt provides ample food for thought for students of religious studies and social and political science and philosophy. However, some introductory remarks are cited, again quoting Shoghi Effendi:

...this Administrative Order is fundamentally different from anything that any Prophet has previously established, inasmuch as Bahá'u'lláh Himself revealed its principles, established its institutions, appointed the person to interpret His Word, and conferred the necessary authority on the body [the Universal House of Justice] designed to supplement and apply His legislative ordinances...

While the design is considered by Baha'is to be divinely inspired, it includes provisions for things that might go wrong, so to speak. First, the UHJ can change its rulings as conditions in the world change and develop. Even elected members might be removed from office for certain behaviors, as described in its Constitution, although there is as yet no known case of this type of removal.

OUTPUTS

UHJ outputs include all of its writings -- formal statements and correspondence, its plans, actions, legislation or rulings and guidance to Baha'i individuals and communities.

As the focus of the present working hypothesis, the literature search thus far reveals no clear and definitive statement in Baha'i scripture that UHJ outputs, however inspired, informed, lucid and widely-followed they might be, are necessarily infallible in the sense of being absolutely free from error.

Rather one finds a collection of often ambiguous and/or vague statements by individuals who do not possess official administrative authority (as the elected bodies do), which may imply to many, without firm foundation, that UHJ outputs are indeed infallible.

1984 (approx.)
In 2005, Dr. Susan Manech wrote:

...nearly a decade before Doug Martin was elected to the House of Justice, for instance, I remember him insisting that each and everything the House said was infallible, by which I think he meant propositional inerrancy.

Since Mr. Martin was elected to the UHJ in 1993, we might place "nearly a decade before" in about 1984.

1999
Apparently struggling with the assumption of infallible UHJ outputs, in "Infallible Institutions?" Udo Schaefer wrote:

This paper analyses two categories of "infallibility": essential infallibility which is inherent in the messengers of God, and conferred infallibility which is a characteristic of the institutions of the Guardianship and the Universal House of Justice. This paper focuses on the Universal House of Justice. Does its infallibility operate to an unlimited extent? Are every one of its decisions infallible, and if not, what are its boundaries? The immanent limits of this charisma are analysed and a detailed argument provided that supports a defensible restrictive interpretation.

In short, this sort of heroic analysis is not needed if the present thesis is accepted -- namely, that there is no scriptural basis to assume that UHJ outputs are infallible.

2000
In a talk given by Dr. Peter Khan at the National Teaching Conference, Auckland, New Zealand, June, 2000, Dr. Khan, an elected member of the UHJ from 1987 to 2010, reportedly said:

...we have at the centre of our Faith a body called the Universal House of Justice,... ...then I laid on them the fact that it was, that we regard it as infallible, divinely guided and freed from error.

Dr. Khan's statement in a major talk that the UHJ was (or is) infallible and that "we regard it as infallible" as a "fact" must have been big news at the Baha'i World Centre. When he returned to Haifa, perhaps the UHJ told him, "Please do not promulgate your personal theological views as if 'we' (the UHJ) endorsed them."

2004
J. T. Lamb wrote:

The UHJ is infallible

where no distinction is made among UHJ input, design and output.

2005
R. Khanam wrote:

...the Universal House of Justice ... is infallible and divinely inspired in its rulings and legislative activity.

where the "is infallible" part is a general statement and the "divinely inspired" part specifically refers to the input section of our model.

2010
A Wiki article states:

The books and documents published by the Universal House of Justice are considered authoritative and its legislative decisions are considered infallible to Bahá'ís.

This statement specifically ascribes, without known basis, infallibility to UHJ outputs.

The author may also be counted as assuming that UHJ outputs are officially deemed to be infallible, without firm basis, in his recent "Gaming the Baha'i Writings" article. However, that article did note the fact that the word "infallible" or "infallibility" does not even appear in the Constitution of the UHJ.

Undated
In an effort to define two types of infallibility -- strong and weak, Ron Stephens wrote:

...The Baha'i Faith...requires a more true, "Weak principle of Infallibility", which includes evolutionary tendencies, and as guided by an Infallible Universal House of Justice...

Unlike the present approach, it seems some sort of infallible UHJ output is assumed and therefore Stephens tries to make sense of such a concept.

DISCUSSION

1. The almost 50 year history of the UHJ since its first election in 1963 shows its staying power, among other things. In that time, its accumulated writings and correspondence fill many volumes. Hence, the present brief literature search may have missed material significant to the topic.

However, the unmistakable conclusion is, first, that the institution of the UHJ possesses attributes of infallibility in both its inputs and design. After all, the Baha'i Faith is a religion based on a revelation believed to be God's will and teachings for this era, and hence, the foregoing points are more or less established by definition. One either accepts that sort of conception or not.

Second, in a result that may be surprising and even controversial to many Baha'is, there seems to be no firm basis to conclude that UHJ outputs are infallible, "free from error", "unerring", an "expression of divine guidance" and so forth. In this light, it may be shocking that so many speakers and authors have assumed and asserted this baseless assumption as if it were written in stone in Baha'i scripture.

As a result, efforts to define categories of infallibility may seem to have completely missed the point. For most purposes, there is no need to do so, at least regarding the UHJ. Thus, infallibility categories -- strong or weak, full or restricted, inherent or conferred and so on -- if relevant at all, would seem to apply only to UHJ input and design, but not to UHJ output.

2. The statements above connecting some sort of infallibility with UHJ output were presented as efforts by individuals, not as part of Baha'i scripture and not as communications from official Baha'i institutions. Concerning these individuals, first, the Baha'i Faith has no clergy, no sub-set of persons with higher authority to determine the meaning of Baha'i scripture or institutions than any other Baha'i members. Second, as far as the present analysis has proceeded, there is no scriptural basis for these statements associating infallibility with UHJ statements (output).

3. The author's "Gaming..." article cited above may therefore be amended to suggest that Baha'i authorities explain to the Baha'i community the present result to avoid further confusion re the "infallibility status" of UHJ outputs.

4. The present result can be a valuable asset in promoting the Baha'i Faith. For one thing, there is no need for it and its UHJ to be the object of the kind of ridicule that can arise from claims that UHJ outputs are infallible.

5. This report raises the question of the motive of individuals in the apparent promotion of the idea that UHJ outputs are infallible, thereby subjecting the Baha'i Faith to unnecessary ridicule. Were these just innocent cases of simple confusion arising from vague statements and unwarranted assumptions? Or did some of this activity have more sinister motives? For example, could it be mere coincidence that two leading fundamentalists as operationally defined here -- Mr. Martin and Dr. Khan -- were among the voices promoting the infallible output thesis?

6. According to the present analysis, belief that UHJ statements are infallible is unfounded and appears to have developed over the last quarter century, promoted by individuals with no authority to do so. Indeed, promotion of this unfounded belief arguably is an artifice to distort the unique and lofty design of the Baha'i administration and its UHJ, and as such, is hostile to the interests of the Baha'i Faith and the UHJ.

The unfailing strength of the Baha'i community is close adherence to its fundamental teachings -- a potent unifying factor.

SUMMARY

Using official Baha'i sources and a simple black box model, (1) divine guidance plays a significant role in inputs to and the design of the UHJ; (2) however, claims that outputs of the UHJ -- its writings and actions -- are infallible have no known scriptural basis. Assertions by individuals and by Baha'i books that UHJ statements are infallible might be an effort to undermine or weaken the credibility of the UHJ by making it an object of ridicule.
© 2010 James J Keene

Start U.S. T-Bond Shorts

2010-08-16T16:03:00.013-04:00

Since our last market update, where we pointed out that the U.S. has already defaulted on its sovereign debt obligations, such as 30-year T-Bonds, markets have traded in a range, generally moving side-ways. Nonetheless, Independent has managed to get readers into these positions with timing such that not a single "under-water" day has occurred on a NY closing basis, which is an unusual feat, to say the least.

Today's headline is that the time has arrived to start building a short position in U.S. T-Bonds. Thus, as of tomorrow morning, when the reader may act on this new position, there are four positions to consider -- gold, SDS (short S&P500 stocks), FAZ (short big bank stocks) and TBT (short U.S. T-Bonds).

GOLD
Our universal currency position in cash -- in the only trustworthy form of gold or silver -- now stands as follows.

March 28, Spot Gold per oz: 1105.50
Aug 16, Spot Gold per oz: $1224.40
10.7 percent gain

This is not a huge gain, but most other markets have been declining in the same time period. The March 28 start date above is the first post in this blog and as such is a purely arbitrary date regarding the precious metals markets. For example, most of the physical gold I have purchased was in the $700 - $800 per oz range prior to March 28, 2010.

At any rate, the current gold price is near the all-time high which could be breached on the upside in fairly short order given news developments since my last market update on June 7. First, awareness grows of the sovereign debt crisis in many nations including Europe, Japan and the U.S. Second, monetization of this debt has been ongoing and officially, a new phase of quantitative easing has been announced. These terms -- monetization and quantitative easing -- just mean the criminal banking cartel including the privately-owned U.S. Federal Reserve print money "out of thin air" to buy U.S. debt issues, among other things. The net result is dilution of the value of any currency one holds.

The race is to get rid of any paper money or deposits of any kind, beyond cash flow needs (e.g., bills to pay) for the next few months. All the rest should be in gold or silver in one's physical possession to protect against this planned degradation of your paper wealth.

As explained in the previous reports cited, if one holds paper assets, including gold which is not physically delivered, one has not done nothing. In fact, one has supported the immoral activities of the banking elite by providing them with your paper money to use against you in dozens of ways, including suppressing the price of your gold/silver investment. And one gets in return only the promises of people who have no regard for your interests.

On the other hand, by taking physical delivery, one adds to the current run on the gold banks, generally making physical gold or silver available for delivery more scarce.

FAZ
The bet against big banks by using the FAZ ETF is also doing well, but basically moving side-ways since our last report.

May 3-4, FAZ: $12.00
Aug 16, FAZ: 15.45
28 percent gain

I promised to explain how I decided to pull the trigger on the FAZ position back in May, 2010. As stated in the link above, betting against the big banks can be very risky, primarily because everybody knows the controlled governments will always bail the banks out of their ill-advised lending to parties, such as countries, that cannot repay. Previous debt crises in recent decades -- Russia, Far East, South America, Mexico, etc -- have always worked this way.

So what could change this invincible picture of the big banks? Answer: now the governments are broke. Simple as that. If daddy (governments) is broke, nobody is there to bail out junior (the big banks). Therefore, junior must face the consequences of ill-advised actions (lending). Why are the governments broke? Too much borrowing and their citizens are broke, too, so there is nobody to tax anymore. That simple. Thus, the core short position using FAZ.

Second, price charts strongly suggested big bank stocks had peaked and FAZ had formed a bottom over many months.

I call this the "cobra maneuver". You watch and wait, and when the target blinks, you strike.

SDS
The Independent position now stands here:

May 10-13, SDS, 30.84
Aug 16, SDS, 33.63
9 percent gain

Again, this position remains in-the-money, with many weeks and up and down swings in a range resulting in side-ways price action.

Why so much side-ways action? For one thing, it provides traders with more opportunities to make money. Say the S&P500 oscillates from around 1000 to 1100 three times. That amounts to 600 points of S&P500 price change to be earned -- 200 per cycle with 100 going up and another 100 going back down. In short, the side-ways up-and-down cycles can provide as much profit opportunity as a one-time "sky-jump" drop (a la Jim Sinclair) of 600 points from the present approximate 1080 to 480 which would be almost 200 points below the previous panic low.

Since this blog is not a financial news-letter nor aspires to be, I hope to help readers make some significant money, without detailing more specific tactics. For example, when FAZ was above 18 recently, I sold some lots (a lot is 100 shares) keeping a trimmed down core position and then bought them back to reestablish the full core position when FAZ was recently around 13. Well, that is $500 (5 points x 100 shares) per lot traded.

This sort of activity cannot be micro-managed here, beyond noting, as previously, that if you take profits on your core position, you will probably reap less profit in the longer trend which is just starting now, than otherwise. By taking partial profits on a core position, one risks the benefit of further gains.

One way to reduce that risk is the buy additional lots on price dips so you momentarily have more than your desired core position. Thus, at price peaks, you sell some lots without reducing the size of your core position.

TBT
The TLT ETF is a proxy for U.S. 30-Year Treasury Bonds (T-Bonds). The 2x inverse TBT EFT goes up when T-Bond prices go down. Previously, I was looking to start a short T-Bond position by buying TBT lots (or shorting T-Bond futures) when TLT rose above 100. Then, I saw that stocks had not declined very much yet, but TLT was touching 100, so I withdrew that suggestion, because the market revealed that 100 was too low a TLT price to be safely shorted.

Today, however, TBT is now in play. Although stock indexes were flat today, TLT jumped by 2.56 points, which is a very unusual move, perhaps prompted by the Fed's quantitative easing plans, although even that is old news. At the close we have TBT at 32.45. My suggestion is to start shorting T-Bonds in the morning with an order like this:

Buy 100 TBT Limit Price 32.50 AON

100 shares is one lot. AON means "all-or-none" which prevents the brokers from filling your order with multiple trades (e.g., 80 and then 20 = 100) and hence multiple commissions. Limit Price means you cannot get a worse (higher) price than 32.50. [Disclosure: Just before the 4 PM EST close today, I bought a partial core TBT position as suggested at 32.49.]

What can happen tomorrow morning?

Alternative one: You will not get this price because TBT opens higher, reversing today's extreme action. However, during the day, it is common for price range to vary to include prices at or near the previous close. Not to worry if one gets no fill on the above order tomorrow. With further larger drops in stocks, TLT will spike higher and TBT lower as a buying opportunity.

Alternative two: Today's big up-move in TLT (and down-move in TBT) was large and formed what is called a chart break-out, in this case, to the up-side for TLT. This allows us to get better (lower) prices to enter a TBT position. What is the implication? Lots of traders buy up-side breakouts like this expecting further upside TLT price action.

And it gets worse. There is lots of talk in the contrarian financial media (such as in the Further Reading links here) about shorting T-Bonds and that there is a huge T-Bond bubble which is about to burst. This suggests that many have already shorted T-Bonds and are now under-water (holding positions showing unrealized paper losses). They are vulnerable, perhaps even sleepless tonight. Those who are not strong hands (that is, who are over-leveraged) will get margin calls and will have to pony up more cash or "cancel" their short positions ... by buying to offset them. This buying could produce a further price jump upwards tomorrow, at least at the open. This is called a short-covering rally where the TLT price rise partly represents attempts by previous shorts to limit their losses rather than "real" buying for fundamental economic reasons. Combine both, as the economy appears to be weakening, and a TLT price spike is more likely.

In sum, alternative two means the above order, placed before market open, may get a TBT price much lower than the limit of 32.50 stated, which of course is good for starting a TBT (or short T-Bond futures) position. While people who were too hasty in shorting T-Bonds have been suffering for weeks and especially today, readers here will be at a relative advantage.

How high could TLT go? 107 and about 118 are general target areas to keep in mind. Thus, please pay attention to the words "start shorting". Tomorrow, for better or worse, we just tip-toe in with about 1/3 or 1/4 of our desired core position. In other words, the distinct possibility of this initial position going under-water for a period of time is appreciated. However, if the above TLT targets are met, we sequentially add one or more lots to the TBT position at even lower TBT prices, thereby price-averaging to our advantage.

What is a desired core position? It all depends on amount of funds deployed. If, say, $10,000 USD is for the TBT position, then 100 shares (one lot) above is about 1/3 of that. If $100,000, then 10 lots would be 1/3 of the core position, and so forth.

Keep in mind, that stock indexes have not yet dropped dramatically, in agreement with my previous comment that a death by 1,000 cuts was the most likely scenario. At present, it is an insult to our intelligence that the DJIA is above 10,000 and the S&P500 is above 1,000, but remember, as stated previously, this is a fight to the death. November elections are upon us in the U.S. The elitists and their controlled government stooges will stop at nothing to maintain the illusion of the imaginary economic recovery they have invented and talk about daily using manipulated government bureau statistics.

This sort of consideration helps explain the prolonged side-ways price movement in trading ranges. It is a test of patience. Add the cobra maneuver and it is easier to be patient.

In previous articles, I described the Texas Hold 'Em poker analogy, where we know the opponents to our short positions are bluffing. That is, the governments are broke; they have no winning cards; they have no chance of winning. So our positions benefit much more than a momentary blink for a cobra strike, since their opponents are dead-men walking, and everybody knows it. While they will stop at nothing, all their remedies to maintain their power (in government and banking) just make the crisis worse, again to the further benefit of our suggested positions.

Since we know they hold no winning cards, it is like playing poker with a child where one can see the cards in the child's hand. And see exactly when the child has a loosing hand. Well, the governments, central banks and other big private banks have no winning cards. Their only remedy is to dilute and thereby devalue paper currency.

Therefore, our cobra positions are about as close to guaranteed victories as it gets, as long as they are not over-leveraged, so adverse price movements can be sustained without booking losses from forced selling, either from fear or lack of margin funds.

At any rate, once we see a series of 3 to 5 percent daily stock index drops, T-Bonds will spike higher. For this reason, we are only starting a minimal short position, ready to add to it only when prices are much lower for TBT, say, below 30 (but watch TLT targets to appraise where TBT is at those times).

The above may read as somewhat insane to sane readers. The suggestion is to short an asset (T-Bonds) that is rallying. Yes, that is what the suggestion is. It's called a "head fake" engineered by entities typically helped with (illegal) insider tips. The big players want to flush out premature shorts by such a rally (called a short-covering rally or short squeeze), at which time the big guys reap profits from long positions in unashamed market manipulation to squeeze (force major pain for) premature shorts. Then the big guys reverse position and go short.

In brief, the Independent tactic is to follow the big players. Which means that one should never develop positions which exceed funds to back them -- never use too much margin, too much leverage.

Example: Back in late 2008 when TLT spiked to 123, I had a small TBT position which went way under-water (price far below purchase price). Since as a little guy, I was positioned like the big guys, that is, I was not over-leveraged, I could just sit on that small position until it was finally sold at a profit several months later when price reversed in my favor. All the over-ambitious (greedy) folks had to sell at losses -- do not be one of those.

DBA
As a coming preview, we are going to talk about food, and DBA is a food ETF following futures prices for grains and other soft commodities, such as sugar, etc. In short, we have an international food crisis dawning as we speak, so on pull-backs we will be suggesting starting a DBA position (long food commodities).

Future Market Posts
Readers might already recognize that I post on market matters on a as-needed basis. If prices on our positions are going side-ways, there is not much to do or say. However, as in today's post, when some action on our suggested positions arises, boom, a market post is due here. However, if you have a question, add a comment or send an email.

For example, positions in gold/silver miners are pending a good entry point. My bias is companies with only or mostly U.S. or Canadian operations, hopefully to reduce political risk. It is true that many profitable miners are located elsewhere and many experts recommend them, but my bias is to reduce political risk (as in nationalization, etc) in my selections. I like small explorers with proven gold/silver assets in the ground and thus likely to get financing for the mining stage, and junior producers with cash flow from initial mining production already realized or about to come on line. Either way, one is buying gold and silver at a deep discount.

Some stock symbols that mostly fit in this group include SVM.T, AXU, THM, AZK, TLR, KMKCF, RIC, MGN, SNSFF, CDE, TRGD, MDW and others. Your ideas are welcome.
© 2010 James J Keene

Binary Mechanics

2010-07-27T21:47:00.006-04:00

Breaking News: The theory of Binary Mechanics, created by the author in 1993-4 when a copy of the manuscript was notarized, after some 16 years is now published. Binary Mechanics may be a major milestone in the history of physics, as space and time themselves are now quantized. We live in a binary world.

A new blog site in the link above was started since the focus is particle physics. Baha'is may have some particular interest in that I started work on this project based on discussions with a Baha'i James Hughes, who developed a spatial interpretation of the relativistic Dirac equations. He self-published many papers, which mixed his insights about the meaning of the math involved with some rather bizarre concepts. Hughes had visited various Physics Departments, such as at Princeton University, to show his papers to main-stream physicists. From what I could gather, their reaction ranged from politeness to a bit of scorn.

At that time in about 1993, I realized that Hughes' ideas about the Dirac equations might have some merit, but needed a lot of development and, if you will, an editor who knew how to present material to academics. To make a long story short, after leaving New Jersey to pioneer, first in Alaska and now in Dominica, I began to formalize the idea for the electron and positron (leptons), to the point where it became evident to me that all the known elementary particles, not just these two leptons, could be accounted for. I also added definitions and equations to express these ideas and findings.

Now that Binary Mechanics has been formally published, hopefully Baha'i friends might help find Hughes, who might be very happy to see his ideas have been developed and have received some degree of recognition -- at least, at this writing, by me. When I left New Jersey, James Hughes worked for Ford Motors in electronics and lived in Brynmar, NJ, across from Philadelphia, PA. Then he pioneered to Ghana, I think, in Africa, but now may be back in New Jersey. So by this ping to Hughes, hopefully he is alive, well and happy and might get in contact.

For those with little physics or science training, it may be of interest to mention some broad brush strokes relevant to today's Binary Mechanics release to the public.

1. Binary Mechanics already has postulated that a number of widely-held beliefs in physics today are faulty and in some cases down-right false. For example, the strong force was thought to be involved with particles like protons and neutrons, but not electrons. Not so. Particles where thought to collide; but this never happens. All interactions are mediated by "radiation".

Particles where thought to be located at any arbitrary point. The quantization of space prevents this. Only selected locations are allowed. A particle was thought to be at any arbitrary time. But the quantization of time into clock ticks as in a computer CPU means that only certain times actually exist since Binary Mechanics defines a fundamental primary constant which is the minimum possible time interval.

2. Just as discoveries in the early 20th century related to atomic structure and quantum electrodynamics lead to incredible new technologies such as the transistor and then integrated circuit, it may well be that Binary Mechanics will have a similar stimulative effect in this 21st century. In particular, now scientists and engineers can benefit from a giant step in understanding how the universe and everything in it actually works. Previously, with quantum mechanics, which Binary Mechanics now replaces, researchers and designers had a sort of distant and confused window into physical events which could yield little more than a "wave function" listing all the probabilities that an huge set of things might happen. With Binary Mechanics, these same bright minds can now calculate exactly what will happen given particular starting conditions, which can also be exactly specified.

3. I have already developed some computer software to simulate unfolding events in a Binary Mechanical system, but this is just a drop in the bucket regarding all the software that researchers will need to develop tomorrow's technologies and to apply the theory to hundreds of areas of interest -- from black holes to projects in high energy physics such as the particle "collisions" at the CERN accelerator.

4. The economic impact might be beyond our present comprehension. Consider that every design laboratory in the world will need Binary Mechanics as a necessary "state of the art" tool. Think of all the patents. The head can really spin on this aspect.

Just the need to rewrite all the physic text books is a big money item. Have you ever looked at how expensive those text books are?

5. One major problem with quantum mechanics is the lack of any simple unifying concepts. Instead, as new physical events were discovered, new terms (with new quantum numbers) were added to existing wave equations to tweak the wave to "fit" observed experimental results. End result was and remains a mess. It is basically the old pre-quantum statistical physics wearing lip-stick to pretty it up -- the lip-stick being the addition of quantum numbers. In sum, the lip-stick was whatever the math guys, using unwarranted assumptions, could cook up (such as spin matrices) to "fit" to lab results.

On the other hand, Binary Mechanics starts with a thing called a "spot unit", which consists of two binary bits, and thus has only four states: 0,0; 0,1; 1,0; 1,1. That simple. The entire universe, and everything in it, is made from this simple spot unit. It is so simple, one might think it would have been obvious. Anyway, the spot unit is "the" building block of the universe, not dozens of curious particles which are thought to be "elementary" and hence, very different from each other. Moral of the story: in physics, the simpler theory -- Binary Mechanics -- wins in the end.

Consider E=mc². A very successfully idea in physics leading to atomic energy, etc, and note how simple the formula is.

6. An important next step in Binary Mechanics development is the prediction of physical constants from the primary constants of Binary Mechanics. At present, nobody can do this with any physics theory. For example, the α coupling constant is just an observed value; nobody has a clue about why it has the value that it does. The rest mass ratio of the proton to the electron is another example. So now is a good time to pitch in and use Binary Mechanics to derive popular physics constants. Such an achievement would be a one of a kind event and assure wholesale adoption of Binary Mechanics.
© 2010 James J Keene

There Is No Panic

2010-07-23T17:53:00.007-04:00

Independent reported "...the strongest hands are accumulating gold... The biggest players have been identifying and acquiring deeply undervalued assets for several hundred years... They are accumulating the universal currency..." and "...take bailout and rescue money from the public for their own enrichment (banks use your money to buy gold)..."

There is no conspiracy theory in our comments on gold and the economy, just the facts. The graph from Gordon T Long shows the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), a privately-owned entity and front for the illuminists, has tripled its gold bullion holdings in 2010. This is just one example of the reported game: you work; your earnings are used by them to buy gold. The role of the respective governments is to make laws and regulations as might be needed from time to time to ensure wealth transfer from working people to the super-rich oligarchy.

Long writes:

The history of the BIS reads with all the intrigue of a spy novel and comes with a very checkered past. According to the BIS web site, as a privately held bank, it decided in recent years to become wholly owned and controlled by the Central Banks of the world...
The BIS is owned and controlled by their member Central Banks... Therefore if the BIS was to do a gold swap of the magnitude of 349 metric tonnes, then board member Ben Bernanke would have known of it in advance and approved it. He would know exactly who the transaction was with and why. If he didn’t then he is legally negligent in his fiduciary responsibility as a BIS board member, because of the size of the transaction and its material effect. Other board members include: Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England, Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank, Axel Weber, President of the Deutsche Bundesbank and William C Dudley, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

In short, privately-owned Central Banks "own" the BIS. The BIS Board of Directors is composed entirely of blood relatives of the illuminists or their paid agents. That is, a tightly-knit group controls the money and therefore controls the governments and their subjects.

Would these private parties be accumlating gold if it was over-priced? Of course not. Gold and silver are now available to preserve the value of your savings at deeply discounted prices. So far, there is no panic buying of gold and silver. The "Going out of business" sale is still on.

There is no panic, at this writing, with tropical storm Bonnie heading for the Gulf of Mexico oil spill with its toxins including the Corexit dispersant. The expected raining of this toxic mix on states from Florida to Texas has apparently not caused any panic. Repeat. People are not afraid of getting sick. There is no reported mass movement yet of people evacuating themselves from this prospective danger zone. There is no wide-spread worry of massive crop damage inland.

Therefore, if you are traveling south, the southward lanes on highways will apparently still be open for vehicular traffic.
© 2010 James J Keene

Story Updates

2010-07-17T19:59:00.011-04:00

Time for fun follow-up on some hot Independent stories.

In Search of Ruhi May 3, 2010

...the work of the Ruhi Institute has gained ... some sort of endorsement or approval by the Baha'i Administration as claimed by Mr. Anonymous...

"Mr. Anonymous" is the person who wrote statements on Ruhi web pages without identifying him/herself, such as "The Ruhi Institute curriculum has been adopted by the Baha'i World Centre..." Independent could not find any collaboration of that sort of official endorsement, until the 2010 Ridvan letter from The Universal House of Justice (UHJ) which refers to "Ruhi Institute" at least three times.

Recall that Palabra Publications owns the "Ruhi Institute" label and process. Thus, we have a possibly important instance of the UHJ endorsing a privately-owned label or the UHJ references do not really constitute an endorsement.

Many private entities may soon be advertising, as the Ruhi web page did, that their product "has been adopted by the Baha'i World Centre." Probably a reference in a UHJ letter is not even required. Just selling your product to the Baha'i World Centre might be enough.

Some companies might even change their name. The electric company might be renamed "Divine Power"; the internet service provider, "Shrine Packets"; the cell phone company, "Wireless Guidance"; and the food supplier, "Infallible Foods".

Misleading Title May 18, 2010

The fact that the liberal, elite-controlled media and government officials disparage the Tea Party movement so much is compelling testimony to its strength, to its moral superiority to anything the bankrupt government fraudsters could attain.

For many months, fans of the Tea Party have been depicted as un-intellectual, stupid and uninformed by main-stream media puppets of the international power elite. This attempt to disgrace love of God and of freedom has been pathetic, revealing weakness of the illuminist elite and the might of seekers of God and freedom.

In recent days, the NAACP, previously known as an organization aiming to reduce racial prejudice, has declared that Tea Party movement participants are racists. This would be laugh-out-loud material, if it were a joke. Instead, it reveals that the illuminist masters of the NAACP may be loosing their cool. Namely, this prejudiced action against the Tea Party movement may show growing weakness of the elitists.

Of course, Tea Party fans are not perfect. For example, there is the apparent inconsistency that reduced deficits are desired, while reducing Social Security and Medicare costs are opposed.

She's Got Legs May 19, 2010

Arizona is about a rebellion against the most ruthless power brokers on earth, who will use any means necessary to assert their control.

Perhaps the top worker drone for the boss oligarchy is the President. No doubt on orders, he immediately announced, in effect, that the full force of the United States federal government would be unleashed against Arizona to quell their quest for freedom.

The boss oligarchy profits from, and promotes, the drug trade, through mechanisms including money laundering. So it is no surprise that their puppet President would, as previous Presidents, do his part to keep drug money flowing into the banking cartel of the elites.

However, one might wonder whether the recent Federal lawsuit against Arizona's law on illegal aliens is enough to keep the drugs and money flowing, not to mention to get more Hispanic votes in upcoming elections. Per these objectives, the net result might actually be the opposite.

Again, this belies weakness. A more direct move against the citizens of Arizona might be to send troops with one or more objectives such as (1) liberate by force if necessary all illegal aliens held in Arizona prisons, (2) place the Arizona governor and legislature under house arrest, or (3) establish a corridor for drug runners free of interference from border control or Arizona sheriff departments. We might then find out whether U.S. troops will fire on U.S. citizens in this century.

While the above measures may seem extreme, they would be very unpopular, which does meet that apparent policy requirement for the present U.S. administration. For that matter, why not just send troops to occupy the northern section of Mexico? Perhaps as phase one of annexing the failed state of Mexico, with its gold and silver mines and oil, so the U.S. could be an even bigger failed state than it already is becoming.

Such a move to occupy sections of northern Mexico may be justified if violence between competing drug gangs impedes flow of drugs into the U.S. or of funds from drug profits into cartel banks. In short, important profit centers must be protected.

If such a move against Mexico is a very strange idea, let us agree with the stipulation that current efforts to persecute U.S. citizens in Arizona are even stranger.

Suspend Elections Now May 21, 2010

The only remaining way to disarm the American freedom fighters is suspension of elections

Short of actually suspending elections, one might look for moves to corrupt the voting process. Two recent items come to mind, both from the U.S. Department of Justice.

First, the signal that intimidating voters will not be prosecuted, as seen in the decision to allow particular New Black Panther party members to use intimidation to deter voters from entering polling places, as long as it not the site (for which there is an injunction) where they were caught on video waiving batons and hate speech at potential voters.

Second, the decision not to investigate or prosecute polling officials who illegally maintain the names of dead people or imprisoned felons on their eligible voter lists. This would seem to be an opportunity for election fraud.

The continuing campaign to discredit Tea Party fans -- they are stupid, they are racists -- may also serve to intimidate further participation. On the other hand, it may also inspire more votes to remove establishment candidates from office. In either case, if conflict among Americans increases, the illuminists are happy.

The Baha'i Bank May 28, 2010

The Baha'i world community needs its own international financial institution -- the Baha'i Bank.

A May 29, 2010, email to the UHJ was sent to submit this article for consideration. Although the email said, "You are very busy and no particular reply is needed or expected", this July 9, 2010 reply was received:

Dear Bahá’í Friend,

Your email letter of 29 May 2010 submitting a post entitled "The Bahá’í Bank" which has been published on your blog has been received by the Universal House of Justice. Your interest in developing this concept is noted with appreciation, however, the House of Justice feels that it is neither timely nor practicable to set up a system on the scale you envisage.

With loving Bahá’í greetings,
Department of the Secretariat

This reply is published here to make several points.

1. If the reader is interested in the idea, some time and communications overhead at the Baha'i World Centre might be saved by sharing the above result.

2. Individual "interest" in "developing" a "concept" is appreciated by the highest unit -- both administratively and spiritually -- of the Baha'i Faith.

3. It may be remarkable to some Baha'is and observers that a single person, with a little idea on a little island, could receive a reply from the UHJ. As a neuroscientist, I might liken that to the brain's ability to detect and respond to a single impulse (action potential) in a peripheral nerve.

Baha'i news features stories from around the world, some with life-and-death implications, such as those about Baha'is imprisoned in Iran, which must keep the UHJ very busy. Similarly, the brain is a busy place with multi-millions of impulses transmitted among the neurons. Nonetheless, a single impulse arriving from the periphery to this data processing center can be detected.

The Baha'i writings often compare society to a biological organism with functions performed by interrelated systems. In the Baha'i world community, the UHJ may be seen as the top center in its "neural network". In conclusion, by the detect-single-impulse criterion, the UHJ is functioning quite well, thank you.

Dollar Good As Gold June 1, 2010

Dominica is not causing the inflation, since the U.S. is printing fiat dollars "out of thin air".

The solution requires the ECCB to move to the gold standard.

Surprise. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), a front for the bankster cartel run by the super-wealthy oligarchy known as the illuminists, does not permit central banks such as the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (ECCB) to practice any gold standard. In short, the IMF is anti-gold, pro-paper fiat currency.

If there had been any doubt, this IMF policy places it squarely in the anti-freedom, anti-prosperity, anti-development camp. The major role of the IMF is well known -- namely, to engineer schemes where countries that cannot pay loans to the banking cartel served by the IMF, are milked for every penny possible to recoup loses by those banks, all under the artifice of promoting social development and of serving as a lender of last resort. Generally, most if not all funds loaned by the IMF never even "touch ground" in the recipient country, but rather go straight to the bankster creditors.

If the foregoing is a bit difficult to follow, this summary will suffice: The IMF is an evil-doer and the world would be better off without it. One might ask, "Then what would happen?" Simple, "too big to fail" banks would indeed fail. They unwisely lent money to countries that could not pay; they suffer for their risky business practices. "What happens now?" The IMF moves in like a cheap enforcer thug, demanding that a country turn its people into slaves in return for "participating in the international financial markets". The thugs need to be run out of town. Indeed, Iceland did precisely that, and Argentina a few years before that. They just said, "We won't take your deal".

Many authors argue that a gold standard is no longer possible. However, since my proposal for the ECCB appeared, including specific implementation steps, nobody has found any flaw with it. Is there a flaw? If so, please click on that article and add a comment.

U.S. Has Already Defaulted June 4, 2010

In these times of market volatility and economic uncertainty, Independent has recommended a large cash position. By far, the best, safest form of cash is gold, the universal currency.

If one has already bought gold or silver and taken physical delivery, this possession of the only real currency will act to preserve your savings and most likely increase wealth. Do not worry if gold price plunges $200 or $400 U.S. dollars per once. Indeed, pray for it as an opportunity to accumulate more. Your individual action will promote your freedom and that of others.

Compare that gold position to those who put their faith in paper money which is nothing more than a scheme of the wicked to steal the savings of hard-working people. If one still holds paper money (liquid assets) at this late date, this is a noteworthy assertion of faith in financial fraud. Such a position may easily loose most or all of its value in the near future.

In short, behind Door A, there is gold which governments cannot print or corrupt; behind Door B, there is fiat currency, whose expected useful lifetime is about to expire, if history is any indicator and which depends on the good faith of governments -- a thing known not to exist.

U.S. corporations are reportedly hoarding over $1 trillion U.S. dollars in cash, since they know that now is not the time to invest in expansion while the government is intent on destroying economic activity. The fun part is that only those choosing Door A will likely preserve purchasing power of cash assets held as gold; those choosing Door B will be in big trouble and may not survive at all as viable businesses. This is considered fun because an investor can avoid Door B companies.

In sum, Door A: Convert all paper money (bank deposits, money market funds, certificates of deposit, sovereign debt instruments such as U.S. T-Bills and T-Bonds, etc) to real money and survive. Door B: Keep your paper money and be impoverished. A (wealth) or B (poverty)?
© 2010 James J Keene

Purge Cover-up

2010-07-02T21:22:00.008-04:00

A recent major schism, probably the largest ever in the 166 year history of the Baha'i Faith, has received scant attention from scholars, journalists and Baha'i authorities alike. This massive historic division of Baha'is happened mostly during two decades (1985-2005) including the "Peak Fundamentalism" period (1993-1999) and featured a purge to remove perceived undesirables or potential competitors to extremist usurpers seeking control of the Baha'i community. Confusion may remain in the aftermath of this historic purge. The present report considers (1) the apparent paucity of typical post-crisis remedial activities in the context of (2) a continuing purge cover-up which would tend to delay post-traumatic healing.

SCHISM. WHAT SCHISM?

Baha'i writings support the idea that a schism of the Baha'i Faith is unlikely since the Covenant, where believers agree to recognize the authority of the center of the Faith, would work to prevent division. While this idea may be commended for its optimism, it may have led to a state of denial regarding perhaps the most important historical events of the current generation in the Baha'i community.

In this most recent schism, the question of the center of the Faith was at best a peripheral or secondary issue. Instead, a working hypothesis is that the main story-line was that an extremist minority systematically purged their competition.

An astute observer wrote (personal communication, 2010) [emphasis mine]:

...thousands of people have left the Baha'i Faith in the last couple of decades, and [sic] tens of thousands. ...we are talking about a very serious problem. ...eventually, we are going to have to face our problems and resolve them.

...the present system of Baha'i Administration is based in the writings. But the actual functioning of that system is often flawed and oppressive. However, that is an issue that can be resolved within the current system, although it will require a change of attitude and orientation on the part of Baha'i administrators. At least, I hope that it can resolved within the system, because the Baha'i Faith does not have much of a future if it can't be. Obviously, no educated or thinking person who is aware of these problems would become a Baha'i, or if they did, they would sooner or later leave the Faith. This has happened thousands of times, and it continues to happen.

And on a more pessimistic note,

...Baha'is are nowhere near being able to act on these misguided ideas, nor will we be for a hundred years or more.

Ouch. Most Baha'is would no doubt prefer more expedient action rather than waiting to the beginning of the 22nd century to read from official Baha'i sources 100 years later that the biggest division in the Baha'i Faith occurred in the last years of the 20th century.

During this period, the center of the Baha'i Faith has been The Universal House of Justice (UHJ), which is therefore known as the "center of the Covenant". The most recent, "most great" schism was perhaps novel because the authority of the UHJ was at best a peripheral issue or used as a propaganda item to mis-direct attention. Instead, this schism arose from a group of persons consolidating personal power by setting up an almost automated system for eliminating competition -- the classic purge strategy.

Baha'i authors have covered the techniques used by extremist usurpers (e.g., Cole and Bacquet) and to some extent, how Baha'i loyalists -- often called liberals and moderate conservatives -- might protect themselves (e.g., Clean-up, Mop-up Operations). However, looking forward, the fact of this huge schism remains as an essentially taboo topic; and volumes remain to be written on many aspects of needed post-schism remedial actions.

POST-SCHISM AGENDA ITEMS

1. Is it safe in the Baha'i community? In the absence of official acknowledgment and accounting of the purge, much uncertainty may remain. Is it safe to exercise freedom of speech, conscience and initiative? Or are there still insurgents lurking among appointed Counsellors and their appointees, acting as spies recording, tracking and keeping files on individual Baha'is? And if so, why are these divisive persons allowed to continue to operate undermining security in the Baha'i community?

2. "We will do everything so a tragedy like this can never happen again". Where are the "never-happen-again" statements from elected and appointed Baha'i institutions? Has this historic purge been officially studied, perhaps with public hearings, and detailed results and conclusions published? Answer: Not yet. Yes, volumes remain to be written.

How can innocent Baha'is be secure that all Baha'i institutions -- and there are hundreds of them on all continents, are now under firm control by Baha'i loyalists? How many of these institutions were actually taken by fundamentalist insurgents and then were subsequently recaptured? How many taken, but not yet recaptured?

In any particular locality, without proper accounting, can parents be sure that their children will not fall into the hands of fanatic extremists posing as Baha'is? This is not a trivial question, since, as the record shows, the usurpers were ready to sacrifice basic Baha'i teachings to achieve cult-like control.

3. Policies to prevent future division. Study of the recent record-breaking schism will no doubt reveal inadequate guidance, accountability and quality controls, which now need to be developed and publicized to prevent future division.

A zero-tolerance policy for the religious intolerance that was practiced so widely during the insurgency might be considered. For example, the idea that institutional statements and policies cannot be questioned or debated has to be definitively laid to rest. The usurpers widely promoted the patently false idea that consultation, which involves questions, debate and even the clash of opinions, undermines the authority of Baha'i institutions. In retrospect, their propaganda may be seen as nothing more than a cheap, shameless abuse of cherished Baha'i principles of consultation and the Covenant

Starting with the International Teaching Centre down through the appointed ranks across continents, operational guidelines might be amended or supplemented including this zero-tolerance policy as well as specific mandates to protect those expressing minority views in the Baha'i community, even where they vary from official positions. In particular, Baha'i intellectuals, writers, scholars and professionals need protection.

Elected officials on Assemblies might need specific guidance as well, concerning exactly which Baha'i laws should be observed and what sanctions, if any for certain laws, might be applied.

In short, for both appointed and elected officials, the firm message might be: "It's the Baha'is, stupid". It is creative chaos; almost everything will be questioned. Forget about any hope of conformity. Baha'is believe in consultation and that involves debate as in clash of opinions; learn to live with it. Debate involves raising questions including questions of who has what authority to do what; get used to it. All this and more are simple corollaries of the "It's the Baha'is, stupid" principle.

4. Perp Walks. Elected or appointed Baha'i officials who can't take the heat of being in the kitchen can, of course, resign. Or, yes, be demoted or fired. A few such figurative "perp walks" (a slang referring to video coverage of a hand-cuffed suspect being escorted by authorities) might actually be a shot in the arm for a demoralized community, previously subject to persecution of the religious intolerance kind.

5. Damage assessment. The largest schism in Baha'i history is bound to have caused terrible damage both to innocents caught in the almost indiscriminate fire from fundamentalist insurgents and to the Baha'i community in terms of reduced size and lost growth prospects.

The schism engineered by the insurgents might best be characterized as a purge since the ever-present, common factor appears to be that the targets for persecution and removal from the community were their most likely competitors for authority in elected or appointed positions. This observation suggests that the only rule for the fundamentalists was purge the competition, which trumped any consideration of religious belief or principle. That is, any justification that might sound plausible to the Baha'i public was acceptable, as long as the competition was removed by the usurpers.

Probably after attaining control of at least several key Baha'i institutions (which hopefully have been recaptured by loyalists), the insurgents achieved a degree of automation of their program of religious intolerance against their preferred targets, as described by many authors including our astute observer cited above.

The resulting damage to the Baha'i Faith, once fully assessed, may greatly exceed any present casual estimates. The persecution targets, as the legitimate, natural competition to the extremists, were almost all current leaders in the Baha'i community, persons most active in teaching, most likely to pioneer and establish new communities, persons with creative thinking skills, special talents, energy and devotion to Baha'i goals, including scholars, academics, intellectuals, writers -- in general, the cream of the crop. This recent schism will no doubt be judged as the mother of all purges.

6. Reparations. According to the Free Dictionary, reparations are:

1. The act or process of repairing...
2. The act or process of making amends; expiation.
3. Something done or paid to compensate or make amends.

The "Shock and Awe" events suggested by the author might be in this category.

Aside from efforts to cope with the experience of being purged by victims of the insurgents, has any reparation happened? Can there be any doubt that reparation is needed? Have apologies been written? Have any of the insurgents expressed any sorrow at all regarding their actions? The back-biting campaigns? The absurd charges they leveled labelling innocents as "covenant-breakers"? The shunning, and resulting misery and grief caused?

Among the elected and appointed Baha'i institutions, have there been private efforts to make amends? If so, none seem to have surfaced. Indeed, should public apologies be issued, as part of a healing process? To pick random examples, have the authors of "The Modest Proposal" -- David Langness et al -- in 1987 ever received a letter of apology from Stehpen Birkland and Firuz Kazemzadeh? Has Denis MacEoin ever received a letter of apology from Firuz Kazemzadeh?

In summary, decisive actions by official Baha'i institutions on these and other post-purge agenda items might be given very high priority. At present, this historic purge is well-known in the Baha'i community. That it appears to be unknown to Baha'i officialdom is an untenable position and can only delay much-needed reforms.

PURGE COVER-UP

The ultimate cover-up may be denial of the schism. However, given the extensive documentation of the schism, it would seem to be impossible for Baha'i authorities to deny its existence or to pretend lack of awareness.

Nonetheless, the official U.S. Baha'i site states [emphasis mine]:

Explicit teachings on the institutional framework of the Faith and a clear line of succession of leadership have protected the Baha'i Faith from schism.

A comparison to secular purge campaigns might illustrate the point. It is as if hundreds and even thousands of Baha'is each took a walk on some sunny day. By pure coincidence, each arrived at the same spot. And purely by accident, each fell into a big hole which was so deep that the fall was fatal. Later this "mass grave" is found and the villagers marvel that all these people mysteriously arrived at the same place, not to mention that each somehow fell in without a single survivor. All those bodies in the hole got there by pure chance at one-in-a-billion odds.

Clear revisionist efforts to rewrite history continue to surface. These clear cover-up efforts suggest a sort of active denial, which in turn may suggest a conscious decision that Baha'i institutions are not yet willing or able to directly address this recent phase of their history. Of course, the final result would be a profound sense of worry and unease in the Baha'i community.

As a random example of a recent purge cover-up, language student Nicholas Bridgewater wrote:

Trained in Western academia, Baha'í scholars now began the process of viewing the Faith objectively, through the lens of the modern academic. Some scholars, prejudiced with the world-view they inherited from a defective, secular educational system, left the Faith when their conclusions disagreed with the Bahá’í teachings. Denis MacEoin and Juan Cole are notable among these individuals.

This is an excellent example of concealment of truth -- a standard cover-up objective. Consider that MacEoin and Cole are both widely acknowledged by reputable authorities for significant achievements in the very field our student writer is just entering, and as such are academic superiors to Bridgewater.

The present point is that the cover-up myth above is probably something that Bridgewater heard or read somewhere, since no evidence is presented to support it.

First, scholars MacEoin and Cole are said to be "prejudiced" -- a rather damning charge for academics and scholars with well-established intellectual integrity. Thus, Bridgewater's reader is immediately alerted to the intended cover-up spin.

Second, how MacEoin and Cole are supposed to have "left the Faith" is very misleading, if not a malicious falsehood. The facts show that both were (1) subjected to systematic and severe religious persecution by Baha'is who should have known better and (2) driven from the Faith by sustained back-biting and attacks from fellow Baha'is including at least one Counsellor. Further, contrary to Bridgewater, their "conclusions" agreed with the Baha'i teachings -- namely, that religious persecution was inimical to the best interests of the Baha'i Faith.

That Bridgewater reaches all the way back to the 1980 (MacEoin) and 1986 (Cole) resigations from Baha'i membership may show just how unfounded and shaky these purge cover-up myths are. It is remarkable that anybody would reach back a quarter century to find targets for mud-throwing and revisionist cover-up efforts.

As MacEoin's own writings available on the internet indicate, the persecution campaign against him was international. On a personal note, in the mid-1980s, I visited New York city to promote "The Dawn-Breakers" film. In that trip, I paid a courtesy call to the Baha'i International Community office near the UN, not to ask anything of Baha'is, but to let them know what I was doing and to answer any questions. Within seconds of meeting Doug Martin, and apparently out of context, he asked, "Do you know Denis MacEoin?" "I don't recognize that name", I innocently replied, "should I know him?" "Well, he is an enemy of the Baha'i Faith", Martin snapped back instantly. Frankly, I was shocked that such an assertion would be interjected in a meeting on a different subject. Very awkward. Turned out the meeting was fairly brief. After all, what can one accomplish with Doug Martin in some sort of la-la-land, engaging in back-biting and apparently unable to conduct a coherent conversation?

In summary, the purge cover-up is probably destined to fail as an attempt to conceal evidence of wrong-doing, error, incompetence or other embarrassing events.
© 2010 James J Keene

The Khan Trial

2010-06-24T23:03:00.002-04:00

Forecasts of events in the Baha'i community were followed up with a pilot study -- "Fundamentalism Bubble Burst" -- with the perhaps surprising results of "Peak Fundamentalism" from 1993-1999, followed by a "Collapse of Fundamentalism", starting with The Universal House of Justice (UHJ) election in 2000. A social scientist may not have the opportunity to test a hypothesis in the real world. However, after the April 20, 2010, publication of the pilot study and the April 26, 2010, "Peak Fundamentalism" article, within days, Dr. Peter Khan was to give a speech to the U.S. Baha'i convention which may have launched a dramatic real-world test of the fundamentalism collapse hypothesis.

Fundamentalism Collapse Hypothesis
The pilot study defined terms and started with a simple analysis of how much fundamentalism might have existed over time among UHJ members. Further thought lead to the idea that the observed rise, peak and fall of fundamentalism was tracking changing preferences among NSA members who elect the UHJ.

The collapse hypothesis is that the influence of fundamentalism crashed by some 73 percent from the 1993-1999 peak to 2010. More concretely, the number of fundamentalists in high elected (UHJ members) or appointed (Counsellors) positions is thought to have dropped. Indeed, in the references cited above and in the Moojan Moment analysis, it might be fair to say that leading fundamentalists were decisively disgraced, to the extent that damage and conflict caused by their activities came to be more widely recognized in the Baha'i community.

The significance of these reported results and the collapse period in particular may lie in its relative lack of recognition by what might be called the liberals among Baha'is. This may be due to (1) the long duration of relative fundamentalist dominance -- several decades, and (2) the continuing incidence of anti-intellectual activities during the collapse period, both of which would tend to obscure that a major shift in the Baha'i world community was in fact in progress.

Naturally, the collapse hypothesis arising from the pilot study could be false -- namely, that fundamentalists remain in firm control from top to bottom and damage related to their "culling" the Baha'i community of various persons deemed to be undesirables remains at full strength. This report presents a one-trial, real-world test of the hypothesis for consideration.

The Khan Trial
Our test thus far has one subject, former UHJ member Dr. Peter Khan. Perhaps ironically, according to the pilot study data, Dr. Khan was a leading fundamentalist. Of course, Dr. Khan can speak for himself regarding his previous and current views. In his talk to the U.S. Baha'i convention, about one week after the publication of my reports, he says, as summarized by Sen McGlinn:

...the Cause will adopt different strategies and approaches as it deals with a variety of circumstances appropriate to the growth of world order. Some of these will be similar to strategies described by Shoghi Effendi and some of them will be different and some of them will be radically different. And believers who confuse constancy with change will be worried that we are forsaking the interpretations of Shoghi Effendi when in fact all we are doing is changing some of the strategies of that master strategist that was Shoghi Effendi.

...The strategic applications of Shoghi Effendi are quite different to the enduring interpretations of Shoghi Effendi which remain valid for the entire course of the dispensation.

Further context for this speech may be found in my "Gaming the Baha'i Writings" article.

In brief, a Baha'i, Dr. Khan, addresses no less than a major Baha'i convention, speculating that Shoghi Effendi's writings may be parsed into two categories -- (A) "stategic applications" or (B) "enduring interpretations". It seems that any statement whatsoever that Shoghi Effendi wrote could be classed as either A or B. In short, this opens the door for a wide and profound set of possible changes, based on what may be essentially arbitary decisions on writings previously widely viewed as authorized interpretations of Baha'i scripture.

He further implies that he and some unknown others -- "we" -- will do this new classification of statements by the Guardian, Shoghi Effendi. On the other hand, by "we", he might have just meant the collective of the Baha'i community.

At one extreme, most might say, "He's a former UHJ member and a good guy; so let him say whatever he wants." Such might not be an extreme position at all, and probably represents what most delegates at the convention thought. At the other extreme, that of the fundamentalists, Dr. Khan's statements might be seen to approach or actually cross into the territory of some sort of Mason Remey, a Hand of the Cause (appointee of Shoghi Effendi) who turned covenant-breaker, or similar situation. Which is it? You decide.

After days of thought on these statements and listening to the actual audio track of Dr. Khan's speech, my tentative conclusion is that these remarks set the stage for "The Khan Trial", which we may define as a one-trial test of the collapse hypothesis.

If the hypothesis is true, then extremists are no longer in control and more moderate policies and events will occur. If false, extreme fundamentalists would be expected to move against Dr. Khan. This test is ongoing as we speak and its results are pending. Reader participation in the form of comments and test results is welcome.

We might quantify the reaction that Dr. Khan's remarks might elicit, in order from nothing to increased severity:

1. Positive reaction or no negative reaction at all (hypothesis confirmed).

2. Counsellor visits Dr. Khan and gives him a stern warning and explains consequences if he continues to promote his personal proposals about Shoghi Effendi's writings.

3. Dr. Khan is summarily disenrolled from the Baha'i community membership. [Note: Sen McGlinn, who wrote essentially the same thing regarding writings of Shoghi Effendi, was disenrolled.]

4. A campaign of back-biting against Dr. Khan is launched by Counsellors and Board Members with the objective that "he is probably a covenant-breaker".

5. Dr. Khan is expelled and officially declared as a covenant-breaker.

Options 2 to 5 above would be strong evidence that my collapse hypothesis is false -- that extremists still occupy controlling positions in the elected and appointed sides of the Baha'i Faith. These possible outcomes merely summarize historical actions of extreme fundamentalists which were used (1) in a few instances, to identify real enemies of the Baha'i Faith or (2) most commonly, to reduce the growth and size of the Baha'i community by driving good people out of the community.

Option 1 -- no negative reaction from Baha'i authorities, is obviously preferred by the author, since, whatever his history, I personally like Dr. Khan and it would tend to confirm my collapse result from the original pilot study.

If events in coming months confirm the collapse hypothesis -- that is, no movement by Baha'i authorities against Dr. Khan, then we might allow that the hypothesis has moved one little step toward becoming established knowledge.
© 2010 James J Keene

On Being Shunned

2010-06-21T17:51:00.013-04:00

Weeks, months and years pass, with no contact, no word from loved ones. There is family news they should know, but no way to tell them. Are they happy or are they sad, and why? Are they healthy or sick? As their parent, I wonder where they are, so I might make a picture to see them in my imagination. These loved ones are my kidnapped children, Grace J Keene and James R Keene, now 26 and 22 years old respectively. [Full names Grace Josephine Keene and James Rogers Keene.]

This story may be best understood in the context of the basic facts of the kidnapping and abuse of my children -- Feb. 1, 1995 to present -- described on the Missing Keene Kids web site which presents original documents, chronologies of events, a series of articles and a "Dear Keene Kids Blog". This content, including the foregoing blog link as the most recent, documents some 15 years of effort to somehow reach across what seems to be an infinite spiritual chasm.

As described, I am the victim parent of a double child abduction by their disturbed, emotionally unstable mother. As I later learned by reading literature written by parental kidnapping experts, such kidnappings generally occur when the victim parent is preferred by the children. In 1995, Grace, 10, and James, 7, began to be aware of the erratic and unstable behavior of their mother, Nilda M Davis-Flores (aka Nilda M Keene -- my previous wife who calls herself "Keene" when convenient).

Those readers who have lived under the same roof with a mentally ill person can testify to how disruptive and disturbing the behavior of such persons can be. And at some point, young children sense something is very wrong and become worried.

I was a totally involved father. Since Nilda could not breast-feed, though she wanted to, I did almost all of the night-duty feeding and caring for baby Grace and James from the day they were born until they were old enough to sleep through the night. After work, I also spent essentially all the time with the kids until they went to bed, which most often, was after their mother was already asleep. The mother had periods of depression and spent -- hard to believe -- 12 hours in bed, about 7 PM to 7 AM. Thus, I was the parent getting the kids ready for bed at their bed-time at 8 or 9 PM, tucking them in, saying the prayers and so forth.

Fast-forward to years after the kidnapping where I could not even find where my kids were and eventually, as the kids reached adulthood, to my being shunned by my own victimized, brain-washed, abducted children.

As described in the "Dear Keene Kids Blog" link above, I have yet to make any contact with my son, James, after all these years -- one might say, a sort of 100 percent shunning, flawless intentional avoidance of his father. The March, 2007, entry describes a fairly brief exchange of emails and some phone calls with my daughter, Grace, and was a happy, optimistic time. She even sent photos of herself and my son -- imagine, the first time I could see them all grown up.

Grace wanted our conversations and email to be private (that is, not published) and so it is. When she decides to speak up and describe in her own words her experience as an abducted child, that will be when we learn her story.

That was about three years ago. Since then, I've heard almost nothing from my daughter. Fate put me back in the frying pan. Or maybe she is just busy. Now even her email address at camden.rutgers.edu no longer works. Maybe she has moved on and I am in the dark again.

Being shunned (deliberately avoided) is not fun, especially when one has done nothing wrong. It fosters loneliness and sadness. One can go through more stages of grief than anybody has ever described. Lucky for me, I've always had an upbeat temperament -- happy-go-lucky, full of energy, always active, which helps, especially if one attends to something other than the subject of this post.

There may be some relation between the present shunning story and those of Baha'is who have experienced shunning by fellow Baha'is, where there is an ample variation in stories. The variety of stories makes this a complex topic, but some general patterns might be valid.

1. One agenda item is coping with loss. As social beings, loss of Baha'i community fellowship and support, for shunned Baha'is, can have a huge negative impact. Same with loss of family members, for whatever reason, even from natural causes like accident or death. For a parent, loss of a child is huge. Unjust loss of child is worse.

A child abduction by a mentally and emotionally impaired person (Nilda), as in this case, leads to intense fear regarding the child's safety. I cannot really describe step one here very well -- it is something like being in a state of extreme panic and terror 24/7. Day after day, week after week, almost no sleep. While there is time -- as when one should be sleeping, it is tears and crying. But there is not much time, since every effort is focused on finding the children, trying to solve the problem.

Nonetheless, in this period after the kidnapping, I didn't miss a single lecture I was supposed to give at Ross University School of Medicine, meeting or other job-related responsibility. In retrospect, this is hard for me to believe. Maybe all the energy was from pumped levels of adrenalin, in the near constant panic state. Maybe the work activities were a welcome relief time to focus on something else.

In addition, as the Missing Keene Kids web site documentation shows, during this immediate post-abduction period, I produced a number of letters, chronologies, etc, trying to describe the case and seek help. Reading them as I reformatted them for the web site in subsequent years, I saw that they are generally well-organized, cogent and relevant, even though I was at that time in a more or less constant state of pure terror.

In my shunning story, I was then and remain now a Baha'i in good standing and must give credit and thanks to the Baha'i Administration and appointed Board Members in this case. As described, many documents were written and distributed. Having spent most of my adult life helping build and support Baha'i institutions, I knew the story -- as most readers here, that these institutions needed nurture and were for the most part, in an "embryonic" state and so forth. This only magnifies the credit due to them in this kidnapping case, since I did receive much support and help -- perhaps much more than anybody could realistically expect.

2. Being subjected to injustice -- I was basically a crime victim, can be a character builder. After all these years, it is still impossible to conceive of how anybody could unilaterally take children from a parent -- no hearing, no due process, no justification, just here today and gone tomorrow, because somebody thought it was a good idea -- in this case, a psychotic mother. Maybe the lesson is to count one's blessings, since one never knows when misfortune will visit.

3. Through the whole episode, over the years, up to the present shunning by at least one of my children, James R, one comes to appreciate in great detail how powerless a human is -- something Baha'is testify to in the short daily obligatory prayer: "O God, my God, ... I testify, at this moment, to my powerlessness and to Thy might, to my poverty and to Thy wealth..."

In particular, one can be a parent today; and a nobody tomorrow. A person today; a thing that does not exist tomorrow. A father with beloved children today; a non-entity tomorrow. A parent who was listened to by loving children today; a nothing tomorrow. A citizen with rights today; an outcast with no rights tomorrow. What a difference a day makes, as the song says.

At one point, as described in the chronologies, I learned that my children were being home schooled but as the father, I could not get any official information about what grades they were making, etc. According to the school providing the home schooling materials, it was as if I was no longer a parent.

4. Being shunned by one's own children is almost like ceasing to exist. But a parent cannot just disappear, however much a kidnapper might wish it. My Grace and James lost, in effect, one parent already -- the one who decided to switch from mother to abductor and abuser. In my heart I know that one day my Grace and James will want to have a parent and so I continue to exist. They will want that education I was not allowed to give them since their abduction. They will want knowledge about their own history that I can give them.

Parental kidnappers want to demoralize and break the spirit of victim children, as described on the Missing Keene Kids site. Contrary to the anti-family training these two victim children were forced to endure, I do exist and believe that one day my Grace and James will seek the father they have been wrongfully denied, the father that, in effect, they were taught no longer exists. They will strengthen their spirits to help their disturbed mother.

5. Shunning creates in the shunned one a feeling of being unwanted, not needed. As of a year or so ago, my son James was traced by internet search to playing violin in the Symphony Orchestra at the New Brunswick, NJ, campus of Rutgers University. Daughter Grace was taking some courses at the Camden, NJ, Rutgers campus and perhaps living in Medford Lakes, NJ. But I now have no indication that either child wants to see me. I was raised to not impose myself where I am not wanted and so I wait for a day when that might change.

Being unwanted is definitely a negative factor for self-esteem. It is not exactly a fact one would ordinarily want to advertise: "My own children do not want their father". This thought pattern doesn't do much to reinforce self-confidence.

6. Being unwanted, being rejected, being discarded, excluded and shunned can also cause a feeling of shame, even if the shunning is completely unwarranted. So the shunned will not talk about it, will remain silent to avoid embarrassment. Who has their children kidnapped? Not the average person. It is not something that one would want to bring up or discuss in almost any circumstance. Who wants to have it known that they have been rejected by their own children?

Being shunned can carry the implication that perhaps the shunned person deserves it. So it can be a loosing proposition, inadvisable to even bring up the subject. People do not want to hear tales of misery. It is such a depressing topic that discussing it is not exactly a good way to win friends or to bring cheer to the weary. Indeed, others may have even more horrible stories to tell.

7. A good dose of intense suffering also favors not dwelling on traumatic experience. Indeed, a Baha'i prayer I like and have memorized includes the line -- "I will not dwell on the unpleasant things in life." A proven method to achieve this is to busy oneself with lots of work, projects and activities. This redirects attention and psychic energy. It is constructive. It builds confidence, as might be needed, providing demonstrable evidence that one can do things, can succeed at things.

While being shunned is being deliberately avoided by other persons, the shunned one might well shun (or deliberately avoid) even thinking about the whole experience. For example, I avoid writing about this subject, since it is so painful to deal with it. For the Missing Keene Kids web site, if some new idea or approach comes to mind, I sort of grit my teeth and attempt to write something coherent about it -- all to try to reach in some way the souls of my children. Otherwise, best to direct attention to other activities.

The two other victims in this story, my Grace and James, might well be doing a similar thing. Namely, it is so painful to attend to this abduction experience, best to avoid thought about it at all. This may partially explain their avoidance of making contact with their father. I understand.

Lucky me, my science training seems to fit with my general psychic energy with the result that I always have a number of projects in the fire. Those I can control, so to speak, and master, things I cannot do with my most likely troubled children (what else could they be?), who have minds and spirits of their own to decide if and when they might want to have a father.

8. In addition to being shunned, one may also be treated to persecution and slander. In the kidnapping case, Nilda also suffered from fear of going outside the house by herself and of public transportation. She duped fellow Baha'i Sandra Cooles to provide transportation as described in chronologies and "Cast of Characters" links on the "Missing..." web site.

In effect, Sandra became an accessory to child kidnapping. Sandra is wife of Dr. Philip Cooles, then an Associate Dean at Ross University School of Medicine, where I worked as Professor of Neuroscience. Dr. Cooles has never revealed his own activities on the day of the kidnapping.

In brief, I became the object of intense slander and defamation from both doctors: Philip Cooles and my then wife, Nilda. At that time, Philip and Sandra Cooles, Nilda and I were all members of the NSA of Dominica. With Nilda gone, the Cooles used their position on the NSA to block any real help.

On the Ross campus, Dr. Cooles opposed every move I made in my work activities, though with little effect, since I was quite popular with students, fellow faculty and administration alike. Indeed, through those friendships, I learned of his relentless efforts, from his power base as a Dean, that my yearly contract not be renewed. He may have hoped I might then leave the island. For a faculty position in this particular institution, it was customary to have one year contracts without explicit future commitments -- all based on good faith.

Philip finally succeeded and 1998 was my last year as Ross employee. There was a new Executive Dean, and he could not even explain why my contract would not be renewed. Since I knew the real reason under the table, I told him not to worry and very best wishes to Ross University. This achieved the goal of removing my income, perhaps so I could not continue to pay lawyers in Dominica, Puerto Rico and New Jersey.

Apparently Philip Cooles had extended his slander efforts all the way The Universal House of Justice (UHJ). I received a hand-written letter from Dr. David Ruhe, a Baha'i friend, almost a father figure from the 1960s and then a UHJ member, all the way from Los Angeles where he was traveling at the time. He was quite concerned about the situation and provided ample detail, thereby revealing to me that he had obviously received false information. So I replied to Dr. Ruhe, not to worry since the details he had received were falsehoods.

Then, I wrote to the UHJ requesting detail on the source of this false information. Happily, the House replied including copies of the documents it had received, confirming that the source of the slander was Dr. Philip Cooles, then the Chairman of the NSA of Dominica.

Since my Grace and James were friends with the Cooles children, letters were exchanged after the kidnapping. They also received at least one letter from Nilda. Yet Dr. Cooles, contrary to his duty as a physician, in my opinion, has refused to provide to me, the father of the abducted children, those letters which might have helped provide evidence in the case and even to locate them.

The NSA of Dominica was, in effect, abused by the Cooles, considering all the facts. In short, a national Baha'i institution might be added to the list of victims of the kidnap gang in Puerto Rico led by Nilda and the gang's "field office" in Dominica led by the Cooles. That Dr. Cooles would engage in such unprofessional behavior only raises suspicion that he, too, was involved in aiding child abductor Nilda on Feb. 1, 1995, commit an extremely serious crime in Dominica.

9. Given the root-canal level of pain associated with wrongful loss of young children, one learns that the last of the stages of grief is that there is no last stage. The loss some 15 years ago remains a loss today.
© 2010 James J Keene

Gaming the Baha'i Writings

2010-06-17T05:00:00.015-04:00

Gaming the Baha'i writings may be broadly defined as selection or suppression of particular passages by one or more persons who deem such action will achieve certain goals. Hypothesis: Gaming the Baha'i writings has been and will continue to be a normal and acceptable feature of the development of the Baha'i world community both by individuals and by its institutions. Some concrete examples of gaming the Baha'i writings will be briefly considered.

Teaching, Proclamation, Public Relations
Perhaps the most common example is presentation of the Baha'i Faith where one selects the major teachings first, emphasizing those with which the listener is likely to agree or which fit specific interests or general level of comprehension. This gaming is consistent with accepted, effective communication and education methods.

Was Yes, Then No or Never
Even in the Baha'i community, basic Baha'i laws have not been applied universally in all parts of the world. For example, the Huququ'llah (a Baha'i fund to which Baha'is contribute if their net assets reach a specific threshold) was not applied in the West until well after The Universal House of Justice (UHJ) was first elected in 1963. This delay in application of certain Baha'i laws (established by Baha'u'llah, the founder) leaves the door open for an infinite delay -- some of those laws might never be applied or enforced. Some Baha'i members might think that such an infinite delay is unthinkable, and they might be right. The present gaming point is just that history thus far shows it has happened up to the present.

In contrast, other Baha'is may rejoice that this history shows an important flexibility in the Baha'i Administration, enabling it to adapt to new conditions, which indeed is a fundamental part of the Constitution of its highest administrative body -- the UHJ, which states, in part [emphasis mine]:

To enact laws and ordinances not expressly recorded in the Sacred Texts; to abrogate, according to the changes and requirements of the time, its own enactments; to deliberate and decide upon all problems which have caused difference; to elucidate questions that are obscure; to safeguard the personal rights, freedom and initiative of individuals; and to give attention to the preservation of human honour, to the development of countries and the stability of states;...

A new Independent forecast is that the UHJ will "abrogate" some of "its own enactments" in the near future, for multiple purposes, one of which will be to clarify the meaning of infallibility for the Baha'i community, as described below.

Authorized Interpretation
Baha'is hope to maintain unity by avoiding competing factions with different interpretations of the writings of Baha'u'llah (Glory of God), by limiting who can make authorized or official interpretations to two persons: 'Abdu'l-Baha (Servant of Baha), the son of Baha'u'llah and the Guardian, Shoghi Effendi, grandson of 'Abdu'l-Baha. The ministries were 1863-1892 (Baha'u'llah), 1892-1921 ('Abdu'l-Baha) and 1921-1957 (Shoghi Effendi).

Of course, everybody is free to make their own interpretations of the Baha'i writings. Quite a diversity of conceptions can coexist in a unified Baha'i community. In short, the idea of limited authorized interpretation has been a factor in preventing major schisms and an important asset to the present center of the Baha'i Faith, the UHJ.

In the Constitution passage cited above, while the UHJ can "deliberate and decide" and "elucidate questions", as the top administrative unit of the Baha'i community, it is not an authorized or official interpreter of Baha'i scripture. This fact may be a key asset.

1. For one thing, it provides a lot of wiggle room. That the UHJ has based a decision on a particular meaning or significance (i.e., interpretation) of passages from Baha'i scripture at time A, does not prevent it from finding a substantively different meaning or significance at a later time B. That is, it has impressive freedom to act "according to the changes and requirements of the time", helped by the fact that it is not an authorized interpreter of the Baha'i writings. Note that different interpretations at times A and B can optionally lead to different policies.

2. Baha'is agree that decisions of the UHJ are "final and binding" at any particular time, which is, by definition, the function and prerogative of a top-most administrative body. Meanwhile, since the historical period of authorized interpretation ended in 1957 as described above, Baha'is are free to discuss, debate, and analyze the interpretations offered by the UHJ to justify its rulings, to educate, "to elucidate questions that are obscure", etc.

In short, the UHJ can and does exercise considerable authority at the same time that it can continuously benefit from discussion among Baha'is of the meaning and significance of Baha'i scripture, in general or specifically as presented in the writings of the UHJ itself. In short, since the UHJ is not an authorized interpreter, it can receive continuous feedback from Baha'is -- their ideas, questions raised, research, etc, which represents a substantial resource.

Some Baha'is falsely claim that the mere act of discussing or raising questions about UHJ statements or directives undermines UHJ authority, while the true effect is actually the reverse. Indeed, UHJ statements would lack authority if they are not acted upon and subject to detailed analysis, consultation and yes, debate. Encouraging such discussion helps the UHJ fulfil its mission "to safeguard the personal rights, freedom and initiative of individuals".

Peter Khan: Two Gaming Chapters
My Baha'i friend from the late 1960s in Ann Arbor, MI, Dr. Peter Khan, has surprised me twice in subsequent decades.

Surprise #1: Dr. Khan apparently cultivated a reputation as an extreme and divisive figure in Baha'i affairs as described in my articles here (such as "Fundamentalism Bubble Burst", "Peak Fundamentalism" and "Collapse of Fundamentalism"). With his fundamentalist notoriety, he developed "strong negatives", as a political pollster might say. I had known him as a gentle, charming person, not as a seeker of conflict.

As discussed in detail in the fundamentalism articles cited above, chapter one of gaming the Baha'i writings led by Dr. Khan and a small clique of associates who had risen to high appointed or elected levels in the Baha'i community featured a theocracy-flavored authoritarianism. This gaming ostensibly aimed at increasing the prestige and admiration accorded by Baha'is to the UHJ. However, Baha'i respect for the UHJ was already near a maximum; and one may argue that this gaming actually served to decrease it as well as to provoke conflict among Baha'is where none had been present before, resulting in loss of a great many Baha'i members. In sum, the "strong negatives" may have been well earned.

On the other hand, confidence in Baha'i teachings and specifically in the UHJ may well have increased since both survived this conflictive gaming by fundamentalists over a period spanning several decades. However, damages directly attributable to the conflict-seeking fundamentalists remain to be addressed, as a simple matter of need for a sort of "post-war" justice and healing within the Baha'i community.

Surprise #2: Although there was no obvious reason for me to expect change, Dr. Khan now appears to be remaking or moderating his image toward a more conventional Baha'i model -- as a seeker of unity. If so, promoting unity is better than promoting conflict; moderation is better than extremism.

And such moderation may signal a second gaming chapter. In Khan to convention, precis, Sen McGlinn summarizes a talk by Dr. Peter Khan at the US Baha'i convention, 2010:

He appears to be preparing the friends for some major change to be introduced by the Universal House of Justice (see the last sentence)...

He distinguishes between "strategic applications of Shoghi Effendi" and his "enduring interpretations" - ie we will not be following every letter of Shoghi Effendi indefinitely.

...the Cause will adopt different strategies and approaches as it deals with a variety of circumstances appropriate to the growth of world order. Some of these will be similar to strategies described by Shoghi Effendi and some of them will be different and some of them will be radically different. And believers who confuse constancy with change will be worried that we are forsaking the interpretations of Shoghi Effendi when in fact all we are doing is changing some of the strategies of that master strategist that was Shoghi Effendi.

...Things that were very cherished by a number of believers were discarded. New practices were introduced by Shoghi Effendi in those early years of his ministry. This has proceeded during the ministry of Shoghi Effendi, during the interregnum and now during the ministry of the Universal House of Justice.

...The strategic applications of Shoghi Effendi are quite different to the enduring interpretations of Shoghi Effendi which remain valid for the entire course of the dispensation.

...Another element of uniqueness of the UHJ is its being endowed with a specific commitment to make change. This is an institution that has change built into it, in its very fibre .. it is charged with making change. It has the right to make decisions within the specified parameters, that are equally binding as the laws of Baha’u'llah and to change its rulings.

This sampling from Dr. Khan's speech is remarkable, suggesting that he is distancing himself to some extent from his previous authoritarian notoriety and more important for the Baha'i community as a whole, that the UHJ may be issuing some new milestone decisions or positions. This is a welcome and exciting prospect. Naturally, one wonders: new positions about what?

What Are Current Hot Topics?
Baha'i blogger Nicholas Bridgewater has listed three biggies: the ideas

that homosexuality is somehow a legitimate tendency, that women may one day serve on the Universal House of Justice or that the House itself isn't quite as infallible as it's cracked up to be.

Outstanding choices for an agenda. Bridgewater lists these topics as ideas which certain Baha'i scholars are "promoting". Further, he claims that discussion of these ideas undermines the authority of, and is "condemned" by, the UHJ.

However, there is probably not a single Baha'i active in teaching the Baha'i Faith who has not discussed these ideas extensively, since they cannot be avoided as seekers raise questions. Therefore, Bridgewater might appear to be "promoting" a rather silly concept that all Baha'is around the world active in the Baha'i community and its teaching efforts are engaged in undermining the authority of the UHJ.

For present purposes, suffice it to say that this is a good topic list to illustrate the kind of future gaming of the Baha'i writings that Dr. Khan may have foreshadowed. While detailed analysis of each idea is beyond the scope of this article, let us consider a few possibilities.

1. Homosexuality As far as I know, the word "homosexuality" does not even appear in Baha'i scripture, defined as the writings of Baha'u'llah and 'Abdu'l-Baha. This is perfect for gaming, since the UHJ can pretty much take any position without worry of contradicting scripture.

In fact, homosexuals have always been very active, important contributors to building the Baha'i community, perhaps in much higher percentage than found in the general population, given the warm and accepting atmosphere typical of Baha'i gatherings. For example, if 11 percent of adult Baha'is are homosexual, about double an estimated percent in the general population, then each Baha'i assembly would have an average of one homosexual member (11 percent is one in nine odds).

By almost any standard, there is no justification for exclusion of such a major sub-population from the Baha'i community, much less for their persecution by Baha'is, as for example, in the reported harsh measures such as removal of voting rights, which might best be viewed as nothing more than cruelty and administrative incompetence. It almost goes without saying that there must be a better, more gracias way to address this phenomenon.

Most important, Baha'u'llah sought to attract the hearts and spirits without any exclusion based on sexual preferences. It seems clear that some definite re-positioning of Baha'i administrative practice regarding homosexuals is fertile ground for enhancing justice in, and growth of, the Baha'i community.

2. Women UHJ Members This one is extremely easy to game, since the issue can be reduced to semantics, concerning how words like "mankind" and "men" are interpreted, leaving plenty of room to spin a modified approach. Even more easy with the history that 'Abdu'l-Baha, one of only two authors of Baha'i scripture, reportedly changed his mind from "men only" to "men and women" for "House of Justice" (Spiritual Assembly) members. By the way, this bit of history may provide some insight into the meaning of infallibility, which apparently does not preclude changing policies.

This item is especially easy. It is the topic of almost universal discussion among Baha'is and in teaching efforts like firesides precisely because it is like a "false flag" event -- namely, exclusion of women actually decreases respect for, and the authority of, the UHJ, especially in the eyes of the general public. As such, it may be classified as an untreated wound.

Lucky for the Baha'i community, this one can be handled by simple decree from the UHJ. It might be as simple as announcing that if a female Baha'i receives enough votes, freely cast by the NSA electors, to be within the top nine in a UHJ election, such a result could not be invalidated. Yes, the previous sentence is a bit indirect, merely to show that new positions can be hatched in a variety of direct or indirect ways.

Over the years, the best defense of the "male only" policy for UHJ membership that I have used is simply, "If women could serve on the UHJ, then no men would be elected. Everybody knows that women are smarter; men would not have a chance in hell to be elected, so we would in effect have an all-female UHJ." Get it? This is my lame "laugh it off" strategy.

The present policy might also lead to some comic situations. Have you ever asked how "maleness" is determined, in the Olympics or in UHJ election results? Do the vote-getters have to be tested by a physician to determine if they are "men"? What if there was an impostor -- a female who always had posed, in dress, behavior and so forth, as a male? Yes, I suppose there would have to be a medical exam before UHJ election results could be certified. Is that currently a little-publicized step in UHJ elections? Given the odds cited above, would a male homosexual be placed in the "men" category?

3. Infallibility
As with the first two ideas on homosexuality and women on the UHJ, Baha'i authors have written extensively on UHJ infallibility. Per the present focus on gaming changes in policy and practice, this item may also be rather easy to handle.

First, the word "infallibility" does not even appear in the Constitution of the UHJ but apparently became a focus of attention by a much later UHJ statement in response to questions from Baha'is. If I have this history right, then we may have another situation where the UHJ can "abrogate" "its own enactments".

Second, and again similar to the first two ideas, the interpretation of infallibility as "free of error" or "errorless" might seem to be a huge price to pay -- maybe a much-too-high price. Being "perfect", never making any sort of error, can be a huge impediment to optimal function of the UHJ and needless to say, the integrity of UHJ function is all-important to the vital needs of the Baha'i Faith.

In retrospect, has being "errorless" helped or hindered the Baha'i Cause? Has it helped or hindered UHJ functionality? If infallibility as being "error-free" is applied to Baha'u'llah and 'Abdu'l-Baha, as it is presently, Baha'i authors already have a formidable job in defending that concept. It helps that this is pure history. These central figures are no longer alive. In the case of the present UHJ, who knows what "bomb-shell" (or suspected "error") might arise when we wake up each morning into the indefinite future?

One wonders, in the case of the UHJ, just how sustainable, defensible and useful the "error-free" concept is and what it in fact adds to the already high and unmatchable prestige of the UHJ. Obviously, certain people will be watching the UHJ like predator hawks, some hoping to find any error -- even a misspelled word or misstated fact. Would such a situation be a counter-productive distraction?

Certainly, among Baha'is, adding "error-free" to the UHJ mix does nothing to increase respect for the institution, which was and remains at near maximum levels. There is an abundance of Baha'i scripture establishing the uniqueness and lofty standards of the Baha'i Administration. So what exactly does "error-free" add?

In addition, Baha'i scripture clearly indicates that decisions and directives of local and national assemblies and of the UHJ should be supported. Infallibility does not necessarily add force to that ample, clear and logical scripture.

Perhaps a simple start would be a policy reversal illustrating to the Baha'i community that infallibility is time-dependent -- namely, policy A is infallible only until the UHJ changes to policy B. If infallibility is time-dependent, what other dependencies might it have? Is it also context-dependent in some manner? Is the idea really worth the trouble? Clearly, being "error-free" might act as a sort of ball-and-chain burden and lead to endless issues, problems, and distractions from more important matters regarding the core business of administering the Baha'i world community, where there is no replacement for the UHJ. Does being "errorless" return anything of real worth, given the high price it demands to be paid?

Already, it appears that Dr. Khan, a former member of the UHJ, is opening the door to game the infallibility of Shoghi Effendi, using a reclassification technique, putting some of his statements in category A and others in category B -- clear beginnings to a process of gaming as described herein.

Summary
Gaming the Baha'i writings has been and will continue to be a normal and acceptable feature of the development of the Baha'i world community both by individuals and by its institutions. Various examples are presented to illustrate the concept. It is way beyond the scope of the current author to determine which developments, if any of those discussed as examples, are advisable. However, the three ideas listed by Bridgewater do appear to be the subject of discussion by most Baha'is and observers of Baha'is and as such, might well be productive areas to do some gaming.
© 2010 James J Keene

U.S. Has Already Defaulted

2010-06-04T16:41:00.008-04:00

The U.S. Treasury has already defaulted although many believe the opposite -- that the U.S. will be the last to default after a series of sovereign defaults by Greece and other European countries. This contrarian idea and some interesting facts about the world's primary currency -- gold -- will be presented. But first, let's see how much money Independent has put in your pocket, regarding suggested positions.

GOLD
In these times of market volatility and economic uncertainty, Independent has recommended a large cash position. By far, the best, safest form of cash is gold, the universal currency.

March 28, Spot Gold per oz: 1105.50
June 4, Spot Gold per oz: $1220.00
10.5 percent gain

The best cash in the world -- gold, has increased in US dollar price while dollar-denominated assets such as general stocks have fallen. In brief, people are selling stocks and holding cash -- in the only trustworthy cash currency available -- gold.

For many analysts, "cash" means paper, fiat money, but readers here know that gold is the one and only cash currency by which all others are to be judged and that one should take physical possession of this cash. More on gold below.

FAZ
The bet against big banks by the Independent using the FAZ ETF, "The Little Engine That Could", is also doing well.

May 3-4, FAZ: $12.00
June 4, FAZ: 16.53
37 percent gain

Not bad for one month, but this is only the start. Remember the true value of "too big to fail" banks is close to zero, if not much less than zero.

SDS
Finally, some analysts expect a "crash" in general stocks, as represented by the DJIA and S&P500 indexes. One might suspect that there will be some big down down days (3-6 percent) and big up days, with the result being a slower, more orderly decline, a sort of death by one thousand cuts. If the bear market proceeds more rapidly, as the crash forecasters predict, the same profit is made, just more quickly.

The Independent position now stands here:

May 10-13, SDS, 30.84
June 4, SDS, 35.75
15.9 percent gain

Notice that 10 percent of 30 is 3 and of 35 is 3.5. So the shorting instruments of FAZ above and SDS, as their base price increases, show greater point gains (that's cash money) for the same percent changes in the underlying instruments.

Please keep in mind that the SDS and FAZ positions both "short the market", the first more generally (SDS) and the second, specifically, the banking sector with the indexed stocks being among the biggest banks. Thus, SDS and FAZ are correlated. When the underlying markets rally, SDS and FAZ equity will decrease. As the temporary results above show, when the expected longer-term trends materialize, the above short positions (by being long SDS and FAZ) increase equity.

The results above, including gold, represent a somewhat new pattern, since for about one year previously, gold and S&P500 were correlated positively. That is, when the gold (or gold stocks) positions gained, the SDS position lost (because general stocks also gained). For the author, this was a kind of arbitrage, where dips and peaks in either leg (gold or stocks) could be bought and sold respectively, basically to increase account equity, which more concretely means reducing average purchase prices, over time.

Now and specifically today also, we see both legs gaining simultaneously, that is, gold up and S&P500 down (SDS and FAZ up). This seems to reflect an increasing sentiment that gold is the go-to safe-haven, the preferred form of cash to hold in uncertain times.

The other permutation is the worst of all worlds for the suggested positions -- gold down and general stocks up. For this pattern to persist, all problems must be solved, all debt manageable, no more loses for banks, an outbreak of happiness of totally miraculous proportions and a man in sandals touching the waters of the Gulf of Mexico with his staff and instantly removing all the oil pollution. Stuff like that.

Probably the above miraculous cleansing of all that is impure is unlikely, and therefore, our long-term positioning will have a big pay day. With the S&P500 closing the week at 1065, we have some 115 points more to drop to the initial target of 950 or lower.

TBT
U.S. long-term Treasury bonds (usually called just "U.S. long bonds") are also wrongly considered to be a "safe-haven" by money managers and other investors. Thus, today, with general stocks down a notch, the gold safe-haven was up as mentioned. In addition, the proxy for long bonds that I follow, the TLT ETF was also up.

Yesterday, I sold my initial TBT position, mentioned previously but not suggested for readers, at 40.93, for a small profit, thinking that my entry price on May 6 was not that good (too high). And none too soon, since today, TLT was up by some 2.69 percent to close at 97.79, much closer to the target of above 100 that readers were suggested to look for to start to build a core short of long bonds (by buying TBT).

Today TBT closed at 38.73, more than two points below my sale price yesterday. One never knows, but it makes sense that long bonds will rally more as general stock prices fall in the "safe-haven" effect. Therefore, one hopes to build a short position by purchase of TBT lots (multiples of 100 shares) at even lower prices. Independent is prepared, as described in a previous article, to suggest readers consider starting a short position with TBT (or long bond futures) in long bonds as TLT trades above 100.

Back to the article title: "U.S. Has Already Defaulted". U.S. long bonds remain a "safe-haven" asset for many because the propaganda is that the U.S. is OK for now because all the action is presently in Europe. In addition, U.S. Treasuries are debt backed by the "full faith and credit" of the U.S.government. Further, a number of defaults in Europe and elsewhere will happen first in some domino fashion before we have to worry much in the U.S.

However, the truth according to the Independent is that the U.S. Treasury has already defaulted. That is, the implied order of events above is not applicable. Why? Honest payment of an obligation such as a loan to the U.S. government is required else you have failure to honor the obligation. However, the U.S. government has expressly debased its currency so the fixed amounts due to creditors to pay interest or principal are not honest payment, but are in fact less that what is due to creditors. For this reason, the U.S. has already defaulted.

The basis of our anticipated short position is that the long-term trend for U.S. long bonds is zero -- that they will be worth exactly nothing. For this reason, we look to establish a healthy short position in this mother of all bubbles via TBT (or futures) at a hopefully convenient time. Watch the TLT indicator (above 100) above, and make your move step-by-step toward a core TBT position.

What gold buys
The propaganda to support fiat, paper money has been that prices will slowly rise over time -- that a "low" level of inflation defined as price increases is normal.

However, in an interesting June 3, 2010, article by Michael O'Brian, "The Relationship between Real Money and Real Prices", we find:

When that economic idiot Nixon took us off the gold standard on the advice of "genius" Milton (closet inflationist) Friedman in 1971:

1 ounce of silver bought about 3.5 gallons of gas; it takes just 0.48 of a silver ounce to get the same amount of gas today.

87 ounces of gold would get you a basic new car; it takes just 10-15 gold ounces to buy a simple new car today.

1 ounce of silver would buy you 17 1st class stamps; it takes just 0.48 ounces of silver to buy 17 1st class stamps now.

3.67 ounces of gold would rent you an average apartment; it takes just 1 ounce of gold to rent an average place today.

1 ounce of silver would buy a movie house ticket; it takes just 0.65 ounces of silver to see a flick now.

1 ounce of gold would buy 163 basic loaves of bread; it takes just 0.19 ounces of gold to get those loaves now.

1 ounce of silver would buy you a gallon of organic farm milk; it takes just 0.50 ounces of silver to buy organic now.

1 ounce of gold would buy 416 lbs of potatoes; it takes just 0.10 ounces of gold to get the same tubers now.

1 ounce of silver would buy you 5.5 dozen eggs; it takes just 0.60 ounces of silver to get those eggs now.

I could go on for days with endless examples of how, over the long term, prices of nearly all real goods are falling when measured in the real money of gold and silver.

The reality is brutally simple:

REAL PRICES DON’T GO UP - IT’S THE VALUE OF YOUR PAPER MONEY THAT GOES DOWN.

As readers here know, most savings should be denominated in the real universal currency, gold, to survive and prosper in coming years. Get gold and take physical possession.
© 2010 James J Keene

Dollar Good As Gold

2010-06-01T01:10:00.016-04:00

Which country in the world might be first to convert from fiat currency to a gold or silver universal currency standard? Is this feasible? What are the implications? This story is presented in three parts: a gold standard proposal, transition from fiat to gold-backed money and consequences.

GOLD STANDARD PROPOSAL
The Chronicle newspaper, in the Commonwealth of Dominica, published the following brief article by the author, as a letter to the editor, December 12, 2008:

Dollar Good as Gold

Countries all over the world are printing money in the unfolding worldwide economic crisis. This will lead to greatly increased inflation -- price increases on everything -- a process that readers know has already begun.

With more dollars chasing the same goods, prices rise according to the law of supply and demand. This is the same as saying the value of the dollar decreases.

Dominica and other Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (ECCB) countries have fixed exchange rates with the US dollar (USD) and EC dollar (XCD). Thus, with inflation, each USD and each XCD is worth less in its purchasing power.

Economists describe this as "importing inflation" to countries such as Dominica that have a fixed USD-XCD exchange rate.

Dominica is not causing the inflation, since the U.S. is printing fiat dollars "out of thin air".

The solution requires the ECCB to move to the gold standard. For thousands of years up to the present, gold has been used as a reliable store of value, a stable form of money, maintaining its purchasing power. In contrast, all fiat currencies have always failed eventually becoming worthless. Gold as money is not a promise from anybody or any government. Thus, gold retains its value even when people and governments fail to fulfil their promises and obligations.

The ECCB should immediately take steps to move to a gold standard. Subsequent articles, hopefully, guided by reader questions, will explore details on how to do this and the benefits to ECCB countries.

For one thing, if the XCD were backed by gold instead of the USD, which is destined to loose value, then ECCB countries and residents would have a stable, secure currency. If the ECCB is the first to make this transition, huge amounts of money would be converted to XCD and no doubt lead to considerable new investment in the ECCB countries and promote economic prosperity for all.

The next article will explore how the ECCB could move to EC dollars "good as gold" and free its citizens and residents from the coming extreme inflation other countries will experience.

Please direct questions and comments to keenej_at_cwdom.dm. Thank you.
James J Keene PhD

Background
The Eastern Caribbean Currency Union is

a development of the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States, this organization is composed of Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Grenada, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. It is under the supervision of the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank. The member countries use a common currency, the East Caribbean dollar, which is pegged at EC $2.7169 to US $1. The resources and reserves of the member states have been pooled to improve the economic ability of all.

TRANSITION FROM FIAT TO GOLD-BACKED CURRENCY
1. According to March 31, 2009, data, the ECCB has about $744 million EC dollars of currency in circulation. The ECCB is required by law to maintain foreign exchange reserves such as US dollars (USD), pounds, euros, etc, equivalent to 60 percent of the EC currency in circulation.

Since the foreign currency reserves are exchangeable at current market rates, for our conceptual purpose we can assume these reserves are all in USD. The total EC currency in circulation is equivalent to $273,841,510 USD ($744,000,000 / 2.7169). Sixty percent of that is $164,309,906 USD.

2. Now let us buy some gold using one half of the reserves. At current gold prices of about $1,200 per Troy once (oz), we acquire some 68,462 oz. A decent amount of this gold is then distributed to major banks regulated by the ECCB. The procedure is the same as that used for US dollar reserves. One can walk into a bank and "buy" US dollars, and banks keep some on hand for the convenience of their customers. Likewise, one can "sell" US dollars and receive EC dollars in payment. For these transactions, banks post a bid-ask price spread for currency exchanges. Gold is just another currency -- indeed, the primary, universal currency, and bid-ask spreads would also apply for bank-customer exchanges for non-EC dollar gold coins (Canadian Maple Leafs, British Sovereigns, U.S. Eagles, etc).

3. This transition is world-class history in the making, so the ECCB may well choose to commemorate this move by minting its own bars and coins with their own distinctive designs, as seen on its present paper money and coinage.

4. Next the EC currency is fixed to gold, and allowed to float regarding the US dollar and other fiat currencies. At present rates, this works out to be about $326 EC dollars per one tenth oz coins plus the customary premium (due to minting costs).

For example, a one-tenth oz gold coin might be marked as $350 EC dollars for use as legal tender. Alternatively, a new $500 EC dollar gold coin could be created with the appropriate gold melt weight (about 0.15 oz).

5. Last but not least is the political arrangements, to achieve agreement from the governments under the EC dollar, to coordinate the transition with participating banks, and finally, to announce the first fully gold-backed currency in the world of our generation. Ideally, the above steps prior to the public announcement would be done in secrecy, since other countries (or currency blocks) might attempt to beat the ECCB into the history books by shifting to the gold standard first. Alas, such secrecy is probably not possible in this case, with many countries in the EC dollar system.

The result is that anybody can exchange EC dollars for gold, or visa versa, at any time. For example, since our hypothetical $500 EC gold coin above would be legal tender, it could be used to buy things in stores or exchanged among individuals -- $500 in paper EC money for one $500 EC gold coin. $500 coins, in reasonable, good condition, could be deposited at full face value in EC bank accounts and so forth.

It would be logical that those selling gold in other forms, such as gold coins from other countries, for EC dollars would need to meet specifications set by the ECCB.

For example, the ECCB via its agent banks might conservatively accept only gold clearly in its original packaging to protect against tampering and other risks. For circulated non-EC gold coins, an appropriate discount may apply to account for lost metal due to wear. In any case, the customary bid-ask spread for non-EC gold should, on balance, be a profit center and cover some losses (say, due to worn coins).

It is anticipated that the public will test the new system to the point that all are convinced that, in fact, the EC dollar is as good as gold. Once that understanding becomes wide-spread, most people will opt to continue using the paper currency and coinage for convenience.

Notice that we started with only 30 percent of the currency in circulation (one half of the reserves of 60 percent). This might well be much more than sufficient, since the public already needs most of the currency in circulation for daily transactions. EC dollar gold coins could also be used as payment and legal tender. As they become worn, banks with the ECCB would recycle them for new coins, as done with the current currency.

6. The ECCB would open the mint to the general public. This jargon means that anybody in the world can bring their gold in whatever form, for purification and minting into the ECCB's coins, such as the $500 EC coin mentioned above, at no charge. The positive economic implications are almost beyond description.

CONSEQUENCES
1. The formal shift to gold-backed money will be sensational news world-wide, incredibly favorable to the EC dollar Caribbean nations. This bonanza of free publicity can be most beneficial to the major tourism industry in the region.

2. Since the ECCB cannot "print" gold, these EC dollar nations will experience an immediate and permanent boost, almost of rocket-launch proportions, in international investor confidence for a variety of reasons. For one thing, all will know that the participating governments must practice fiscal discipline. Politicians will know that they cannot make unreasonable promises to, in effect, buy votes. Investment will pour into these nations, creating a quantum leap forward in employment opportunities and wealth creation (production exceeding consumption) for their populations.

3. Banks will be flush with cash, since international money will flow into the EC dollar nations like never before. In essence, these EC dollar nations will become safe havens for capital almost over-night. If these banks use this new cash on account in prudent lending for business development, it means more jobs, more wealth for the citizens and residents.

4. In terms of market dynamics, this incoming cash signifies strong bids for EC dollars. In short, the now floating EC dollar will increase in relative value. In other words, one might expect, say, to see the EC dollar trading at 0.736 US dollars (2 / 2.7169), double the current, fixed exchange rate. This is like saying that EC dollars in these island nations would buy twice as much goods and services from the US as previously. This is equivalent to saying that the wealth of the average holder of EC dollars effectively doubles.

A further major benefit is that both private debt in, and sovereign debt of, the EC dollar countries, if denominated in foreign fiat currencies (US dollars, euros, pounds, etc), will be much easier to pay down. In this process, those foreign currencies are purchased (with more valuable EC dollars) and used to pay the creditors. In short, if the EC dollar exchange value doubles, it is equivalent to halving existing debt denominated in foreign currencies.

5. All fiat currencies are declining in purchasing power which results in increasing poverty in those nations that choose to reject gold-backing. In contrast, the new gold-backed EC dollar will tend to maintain or even increase purchasing power thereby increasing the wealth of all EC dollar holders.

6. By pegging the EC dollar to gold and not to any weakening fiat currency, the EC dollar nations will cease to "import" inflation. Therefore, greater price stability will result for goods purchased in these nations.

7. Countries with stronger currencies can buy relatively more imports, as mentioned above. In contrast, a stronger currency tends to hurt exports, but only if the nominal price is maintained. This is properly the subject for a whole additional article (or even a whole book). However, these broad truisms need not lead to any sort of disaster, as one might think.

If the EC dollar doubles in value in its exchange rate with currency X, the buyer country with currency X will not pay more if the EC exporter cuts its price by one half, so the X currency buyer continues to pay the same. Although the EC dollar exporter is getting the same amount of EC dollars as before the transition to gold-backing, remember that those EC dollars now buy twice as much when spent by that exporter.

Will the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States win the gold metal in the race for economic prosperity via gold-backing of its currency? The prize is there for the taking.
© 2010 James J Keene

The Baha'i Bank

2010-05-28T16:10:00.011-04:00

The Baha'i world community needs its own international financial institution -- the Baha'i Bank. When? As soon as possible. Where? At the Baha'i world headquarters in Haifa, Israel, with at least six continental branches. Who? The Universal House of Justice (UHJ), the top-most administrative body of the Baha'i religion, should establish the Baha'i Bank, as one of its top-most priorities. Why? To preserve, protect and increase the wealth of the Baha'i community. What? Let us begin to define the concept, design and rationale for the Baha'i Bank.

BAHA'I BANK MISSION AND DESIGN
Design of the Baha'i Bank ("the Bank") follows from its mission:

1. Remove essentially all Baha'i community funds from secular banks. In the context of the worsening international financial crisis, a primary function of the Bank will be to convert essentially all liquid assets to gold and/or silver bullion and take physical possession.

The "funds" or "liquid assets" are all official Local, National and International Baha'i Funds, including the Continental and Regional Funds and all Baha'i Endowments, presently deposited in secular banks or other financial institutions, including stocks, bonds or other investment vehicles. Those who fail to implement Mission #1 risk loosing some or all of their savings, since these deposits all depend on the promise of the fiduciary institution and/or the government in its jurisdiction and promises may be, and most likely will be, broken. Gold in hand is nobody's promise.

In sum, this mission component preserves and protects wealth in all of the Baha'i Funds and Endowments, and should be implemented first and with great haste for Baha'i deposits in secular institutions providing the greatest returns or yield. Why? This seems to be opposite to common sense. Answer: deposits or other financial assets returning higher interest rates or yield are precisely the most risky, the most likely to experience loss of principal. Convert all those to gold first -- immediately.

2. Reserves held by the Bank in Gold or Silver Bullion. Ideally, the Bank and its branches should each own a secure vault to hold its bullion "deposits". If branches of the Bank are located in close proximity to bullion dealers, 100 oz and 400 oz "good delivery" gold bars or 1000 oz silver bars may be exchanged back and forth with paper currency as required with very small transaction fees.

In addition to the continuing devaluation of all fiat (paper) currencies (dollar, euro, yen, etc) by massive money printing by misguided governments, any fiat currency may be unexpectedly devalued substantially over-night by government decree. Briefly, those, including Baha'i Funds and Endowments, holding paper-denominated assets loose that wealth on a daily basis, and possibly most or all of it in phase II of the Greater Depression. Meanwhile, those, including the Bank, holding Shoghi Effendi's universal currency, will, by most accounts, experience an increase in wealth.

3. A private bank model suffices for mission items #1 and #2. Initially, the customers of the Bank are only the Baha'i Funds and Endowments and the associated Baha'i institutions -- e.g., Local and National Spiritual Assemblies, The UHJ, the Continental Boards of Counsellors, and so forth. This arrangement is often called a "private bank". In other words, at present, the Bank is not for individuals to open checking accounts and get other financial services -- as in a commercial bank.

Since it is of utmost importance to create and launch the Bank as soon as possible, let us defer the question of other accounts, say, for individual Counselors or other appointed units or committees of the Baha'i Administration.

In this private bank model, transfers from one Administrative unit (or Fund) to another is easy, centralized and requires no transfer fees paid to third-party financial institutions.

4. The Bank may utilize credit union concepts. Mission example:

Given that the Bank's own assets cannot earn much interest in the price-controlled, near-zero interest rate environment of the doomed-to-fail secular banking world, literally burning before our eyes because their so-called assets too often consist of money lent to others that will never be repaid;

given that some Local or National Baha'i communities (or other Bank "member" units) may have received loans from secular banks for, say, a Baha'i center;

given that such long-term loans, as in mortgages, require the debtor Baha'i community to pay relatively high rates of interest;

these financial apples may be juggled as follows:

First, the Bank may lend to the debtor Baha'i community (an account holder or "member" of the Bank) the full amount of the remaining principal and interest owed to the secular bank, which will be used to pay off that loan and remove the secular bank from the financial picture of that Baha'i community or unit.

Second, the debtor community or unit now will pay a lower interest rate for its new long-term loan from the Bank.

The welcome results are many:

(1) Secular banks which may have unfavorable terms for the Baha'i community are removed from the equation, thereby reducing risk.

(2) The debtor community experiences significant savings, by paying a reduced interest rate to the Bank, as one of its members.

(3) The Bank gains an income stream to cover its expenses and hopefully to increase its capital.

5. Member accounts at the Bank may be denominated in oz of gold or silver, as stipulated when the account is opened. While this mission component no doubt may require a bit of thought, it would insulate the Bank and its member customers (Baha'i communities and Funds, etc) from paper currency fluctuations, to which they are presently subject (without the agency of the Bank) and to an ever increasing extent.

That is, according to Mission #2 above, all member deposits are converted to precious metal bullion, leaving only enough fiat currency reserves (mostly received via deposits) needed for operational expenses in the coming three to six months, or as determined by the Bank management. These fiat currency reserves are mostly the paper money currency of the Bank branch host countries.

An account holder may have two accounts, one each in gold or silver oz. units and may in essence convert from one to the other as determined by procedures of the Bank.

6. Non-profit, religious, charitable mission of the Bank. Thus far, the Bank is seen along the lines of a private bank / credit union model, concepts which are familiar in law and custom on all continents. The central non-profit and religious works aspects of its mission are also well-known and accepted ideas around the world.

The present point is that the exact definitions of banking, and laws or customs governing same, can vary widely across countries and continents. Therefore, the non-profit private bank and credit union for religious works model proposed herein may be most amenable to satisfactory and rapid implementation. For one thing, it avoids a host of detailed laws and licensing requirements applicable to financial institutions taking deposits from the general public, which is beyond the scope and mission of the Bank.

The official name of the Bank will be chosen in accordance with this Mission item.

7. The Bank will not lease its bullion reserves. Perhaps needless to say, in accordance with the Bank's mission of preserving and protecting the wealth (savings) of the Baha'i world community, it will forgo any earnings (surplus) from leasing its gold or silver bullion reserves to third-parties.

8. The Bank will offer services and charge fees to generate surplus (profit). A comprehensive treatment of this mission item is beyond the scope of this introductory proposal. However, as examples, some ideas might include:

(1) Money Transfers. An international inter-bank wire transfer of less than $10,000 USD may cost about $25 USD or more. While management of the Bank will establish procedures, there is definitely room to earn "surplus" in such transactions, in a sort of Western Union business model. Money transferred from branch A to branch B of the Bank might involve a purchase of gold at branch A and a sale of gold at branch B to pay the recipient. For such transfers, the sender and recipient may be members of the Bank or non-members in the public. There may be a fiat currency exchange involved as well, whether or not a gold intermediary step in the process is employed. For all such currency exchanges, bid and ask prices apply to the currency units (gold or paper money), and therein lies a surplus for the service provided by the Bank.

(2) Small fees to issue check books to Bank account holders. Initially, before the Bank establishes its own check clearing systems, this function could be sub-contracted to a third-party. To avoid fraud or theft of Baha'i funds, the Bank may require, where feasible, that checks drawing on member deposits (or credit line) be signed by two parties, preferably without family relationship.

(3) Purchase/Sale of Gold/Silver Coins or Bullion. Since branches of the Bank already have secure quarters to handle real money -- i.e., gold and silver, this activity is a natural option to earn a surplus and help pay for the investment of establishing branches of the Bank. Again, in bullion purchase/sale transactions, bid and ask prices apply and surplus (profit) may be obtained by the bid-ask spread.

(4) Letters of Credit. In a potentially dramatic demonstration of Baha'i thought on the universal currency and international trade, branch A could issue letters of credit for an entity ordering goods, payable to the producer or shipper of said goods at branch B of the Bank, and of course, earn fees in the process. Said letters of credit could be denominated in oz of gold or silver, to remove fiat currency risk for the buyer, seller and the Bank itself, in providing this service.

This sampling is only a taste of a number of possible "profit centers" for the Bank, as it develops.

9. The Bank will distribute its bullion reserves among its branches across continents. The management of the Bank will determine the distribution over time based on its mission to preserve and protect wealth of the Baha'i community. This is the "don't place all your eggs in one basket" principle. If war, natural disaster, social unrest, etc, affect some areas geographically, hopefully, if the distribution of bullion assets is done well, possible losses will be minimized.

SUMMARY
What Baha'is often call the "old world order" is being rolled up at a faster pace than many observers may have expected. This is producing a highly unstable situation where things can change suddenly chaos-theory-style rather than gradually.

Thus, this proposal for the Bank might be regarded as a high priority project for the Baha'i Administration. It encompasses protecting the purchasing power of current Baha'i liquid assets by removing them from secular financial institutions as soon as possible and liquidating all debts of Baha'i communities to secular banks, as described in mission item #4.

How long does it take to do a withdrawal, use the cash proceeds to purchase bullion and take physical delivery. Heck, that can be done in one day. At least, it would not take weeks or months to do so. Birth of the Bank as proposed requires only a little understanding of current events, the will to safeguard Baha'i assets, and at first, a lap-top to set up the member accounts. Let's get going.
© 2010 James J Keene

Beware Cash For Gold

2010-05-27T06:03:00.020-04:00

Updated: Oct 17, 2011
Cash-for-gold can be a profitable, but risky business for Baha'is and others. However, if one has unwanted and/or broken jewelry for sale, cash-for-gold services are probably the worst alternative, perhaps paying only about 50 percent or less of gold melt weight. In contrast, a reputable refinery may pay 95 percent of gold melt weight. Indeed, most cash-for-gold outfits do not operate their own refinery and in fact send their scrap gold to such a refinery, which most owners of scrap gold can do themselves directly.

This article was prompted by two comments by "Net", a cash-for-gold spammer. I responded to the first comment in Rolling in Cash. In Market Meditation, a second comment by "Net" was deleted, not because it presented a different point of view, but because it was again misleading and spam.

CASH FOR JEWELRY
Starting a cash-for-gold business may be a simple as putting up a sign, especially if one is located on a main road. In 2008, I put up a "CASH FOR JEWELRY" sign and began buying scrap gold and silver in Dominica. Based on my own research, here is the procedure, used around the world and each and every point is readily available on the internet (please start reading by Google of "gold refining" and visit www.kitco.com):

1. Compute "Melt Weight" of Gold/Silver. The item is weighed in grams. I used a simple credit-card-sized, hand-held device sold in office supply stores to weigh letters to determine postage. On one end of a balanced arm is an alligator clip for the jewelry. The weight of the jewelry tilts the balanced arm with pointer indicating ounces on one side and grams on the other. Testing gold coins of known weight in grams, this cheap little device proved to be accurate within a small fraction of a gram, more than sufficient for the purpose.

Then, grams divided by 31.1 converts the total weight to Troy ounce.

Troy ounce is then multiplied by the purity of the gold/silver in the item. For sterling silver, this is 0.925. For gold items, the purity is measured in carets (K) with 24K being pure gold. Since both silver and gold are too soft as metals for jewelry, they are mixed with other metals to form a harder alloy which, by definition, is not pure gold or silver.

E.g., 10K, 12K and 14K items are 0.417, 0.500 and .583 gold by weight respectively. For other K values, one can divide the K by 24 to compute the purity fraction. Finally, the melt weight of an item is the total Troy ounce multiplied by the purity factor above.

2. Compute "Nominal Value". Multiply the Melt Weight and the spot metal price in USD.

The product of the Melt Weight and the Spot Price gives a nominal estimate of the underlying value of the precious metal in the item. The Spot Price changes hourly, daily, weekly, but at any time, is visible around the world by anybody (see, e.g., www.kitco.com on the internet). In the 2008-2009 period, during business hours, Fox Business News showed a good estimate of current spot gold price in the bottom/center panel of the screen. During my purchases, a TV was turned on and the seller could see with his own eyes what the current gold price was -- another indication of openness and fairness of my purchases.

Why "nominal"? Very simple. The spot metal price is for 99.9 percent pure gold/silver and in a refined form (e.g., bars) stamped by a major world-class refinery known worldwide for the accuracy of their assays for metal purity and procedures in casting and marking each bar. Well, jewelry of any kind does not meet this standard and therefore the fair market value of an item is less than the "nominal" melt weight value.

3. Multiply the Nominal Value by a Discount/Conversion factor. The Discount/Conversion number takes into account factors including the following and converts Nominal Value into a fair market price for an item.

(3a) Many refineries of scrap jewelry estimate that up to 10 percent of the presumed gold content (Melt Weight) is lost in the refining process. There are many reasons for this -- e.g., refining is not perfect; some items have springs in fasteners or other components which are not gold, but were computed in the Melt Weight; etc.

(3b) The scrap jewelry buyer has a number of significant expenses, including shipping, insurance for shipped packages, funds paid to the refinery for its work, and interest payments on working capital lost during the considerable time between purchase and final receipt of the proceeds from the refiner.

Early on, I checked with FedEx and found a package of less than two pounds weight with proper insurance would cost many hundreds of ECC dollars, just for that single step of shipment to a refiner. Regarding refining costs, the process is expensive since most use expensive chemicals in the refining to extract the gold content in a sequence of fairly complicated steps.

(3c) Regarding "buyer beware", pricing would also take into account important risk factors. Examples: Some items might be gold-plated and not pure alloy. Examination of items under a bright light with a powerful magnifier (e.g., the 10x eye-piece of a microscope) can easily reveal gold-plated items, due to wear, scratches, etc. Heavy male gold chains are often marked as 14K but in fact are gold-plated and next to worthless. A little file can be used to make a small notch in the back of an item or between links in a heavy chain, with permission of the seller. Usually, the seller wants to know what they have. Also, an unglazed piece of floor tile can be used to scratch the item. Gold leaves a bright yellow mark; brass does not. However, thickly plated items may give a false positive on this "stone" test.

A Dominican lady inadvertently taught me a great simple test for silver. She said that her silver bracelets turned black when she did the wash by hand with bleach. Bingo. A drop of chlorox will cause a black spot on silver, especially fast if in bright or sun light. This does not occur with other metals that might pass for silver on casual inspection.

Learn about all the marks jewelry makers use. A three digit number might indicate purity -- e.g., 417 indicates 10K. Some marks explicitly indicate gold-plating. Some items have no markings. General appearance and color will suggest a likely purity value after experience in handling a large variety of scrap. In those cases, I tell the seller that no marking is visible and based on appearance and origin (which country), I can make an offer based on an estimated purity factor -- my best guess. For example, a copper tint of items from certain countries suggests 9K or less.

Some items might be falsely marked, say, as 14K when in fact they were only 12K. Is the seller committing fraud in those cases and therefore, would one be a victim of fraud? In truth, most sellers do not themselves know the value of their items and if they are marked properly for purity, etc.

Also, one is a victim of fraud, a serious crime, if anybody offers for sale an item which is stolen property, if they do so knowingly.

Finally, the world price of gold and silver can change dramatically in relatively short periods of time (this is called "price volatility"). E.g., in March, 2008, gold was above $1000 USD per Troy oz. and later in 2008 dipped below $700 USD per Troy oz. So this "price risk" is very real. Indeed, for a time I was paying above $900 USD/oz. only to see a period when gold was trading in the low $700 USD/oz. range.

In short, the "buyer beware" factor summarizes a number of risks in purchase of scrap jewelry, which are intrinsic to this kind of investment. In many cases, I did not buy items offered for sale because I decided not to make any offer (e.g., the item was gold-plated) or because my offer was not accepted.

(3d) The fair market price for an item would obviously include some remuneration for my time, effort and investment funds in return for the important service -- Cash for Jewelry -- I was providing to the public.

(3e) Finally, the USD to ECC currency conversion is factored in.

SUMMARY: I was very careful and continuously read on the internet to learn all I could to minimize risk factors like those above, so I could always offer a uniform, fair price to sellers. I felt this was very important as a matter of honesty and integrity and also, thinking ahead to a point where "Cash for Jewelry" might become an established business beyond purchases by a private investor.

First, if my offered prices were "too low", I would be seen as unfair and others might copy my procedures and offer more money for items so that sellers would no longer offer items to me for sale.

Second, if my offered prices were "too high", it would mean that eventually I would simply loose all my investment funds, since I would get back from refineries less than what I paid. Applying the same idea, if competing investors in Dominica were willing to pay more than my offer, they, too, would be at risk of loosing their investment funds.

Chat with the seller while you examine an item. E.g., gold-plating might not be revealed until every link in a chain, every millimeter of an item is examined under magnification. Gold-plating can look like paint chipping off a painted wall or wearing off due to friction. Ask everything: "Where did you get this?" Some countries produce fakes more than other countries. Young men selling woman's jewelry does raise questions! "How long have you had this?" Older items were made when gold was cheaper and are less likely to be fakes.

Part of the service to the public is that the seller gets instant cash, without any waiting period.

In addition to these expenses and risk factors, one has to add in newspaper ads, shipping, possible legal expenses, risk of robbery and even personal injury, since a successful operation can quickly achieve much notoriety, especially among the wrong crowd, such as thieves. Indeed, as a cash-for-gold service, based on my own research, my "Cash for Jewelry" was paying more to the public than any competitors. It turned out that I eventually took down my sign deciding that "It can be done" does not always mean "It should be done".

Thus, unless one has excellent security (say, one foot, steel reinforced concrete walls or whatever), starting such a business as a service to the public is not suggested. My articles here discuss other ways to more safely buy gold and silver at a deep discount. For example, gold and silver still in the ground as found in selected gold and silver mining companies.

The fact that I was paying more than any competitors here in Dominica, and still could be profitable, shows how little most cash-for-gold dealers pay to the public. Some might even call it a rip off, instead of my "Cash for Jewelry" as a reputable, fair service to the public. In one actual test, another place offered only $135 for a 14K gold ring for which I would pay $240 on the same day (same spot gold price). That is, I was paying about 75 percent more. As a result, I was getting most of the scrap gold sellers and the risk factor, the attention of some unscrupulous people.

The offer price to the seller was calculated uniformly -- everybody treated equally. Often people did not accept the offer, but would return later to accept my offer after checking with other buyers. This also suggested I was offering the best prices available -- fair market prices.

To use our nominal figures above, the difference between 95 and 50 percent of melt weight leaves 45 percent minus expenses. If that sell-buy margin exceeds expenses, one has a profitable business.

DIRECT SALE TO REFINERY
One may cash out of some scrap gold by direct payment from a refinery. I mentioned Midwest Refineries, LLC based on my own research and experience with a number of shipments. Of interest to readers here, I found that MidWest will accept shipments from outside the United States (I reside in the beautiful Commonwealth of Dominica) and pay the "settlement" amount via bank wire transfer to a foreign bank.

First, among many refineries surveyed, MidWest was the only one that offered a fixed percent of melt weight (currently 95 percent), instead of a set of separate charges for melting, assay, etc. For large operators, these separate charges may turn out to be less than the flat 5 percent (100 - 95) charged by MidWest. However, MidWest does not have a minimum scrap amount. This flat charge was convenient for me, not knowing the details of the refining business and perhaps most important, suggested confidence that MidWest knew what they were doing to enable them to offer this business model.

More recently, I've been researching starting a precious metals refinery. Indeed, from materials laying around, I have built and tested (1) an oil fueled melting furnace, which can use diesel or used "black" motor oil, and (2) an electrolysis unit to purify gold ingots to .999 gold.

For a shipment, check with government authorities, if outside the U.S., if there is export fees or taxes for objects containing gold. Happily, for Dominica, there is none. Choose the biggest, most reputable over-night (or two day) carrier for shipments. I started with a small shipment of about 5 oz gold melt weight, about double that in total content weight, and a U.S. bank account for the wire transfer. All worked well, with settlement payment in less than two weeks.

To reduce risk of loss in shipment, I decided that a series of small shipments was a good idea, so all subsequent shipments were in the 5-6 oz gold melt weight range. In addition to the fairly rapid turn-around time of two weeks or less, MidWest sends by snail mail a settlement statement. If, horrors, a shipment contains non-gold items (which one may have purchased by mistake), the mailed material contains clear printouts of an image of the non-gold "discarded" items. Buying non-gold items by mistake is another risk factor, of course.

To recycle cash more efficiently, I switched to a local bank here in Dominica (a branch of the international Canadian Scotia Bank) and Midwest will wire settlement directly in a similar manner. Be sure to get from your non-U.S. bank the exact wire transfer information (SWIFT code, etc), and it may be a two-step process where a U.S. bank intermediary is involved. Just record that information exactly, so the MidWest people can just provide it to their bank and bingo, you've got cash.

To make economic sense, to use MidWest to cash out of scrap gold, probably one should have at least 1-2 oz gold melt weight. If scrap weighs 3-4 oz total, you probably have about that amount of pure gold.

SUMMARY
(1) Think carefully if you want, in effect, to risk your life by starting a cash-for-gold operation. If you pay fair prices, especially in an area without competing services, it does meet the Baha'i goal of providing a needed service with integrity.

(2) If one wants to cash out of any significant amount of scrap gold, consider direct sale to a refinery. If possible time your shipment to a refinery as gold price is rising, say, on the way to a new high. If you wait for a new high to be confirmed, so to speak, prices may be declining by the settlement date at the refinery. If you time this well, you will always be selling near gold price highs.

(3) Readers here know I support keeping gold items -- jewelry and other -- as an investment, expecting much higher gold prices down the road. So sell gold items for scrap only to raise needed cash; keep the rest. Indeed, with "Cash for jewelry", if a seller did not accept my cash offer, I would praise the person, "You made a good decision. You are doing what I am doing -- investing in physical gold. It is as if you used the money I just offered to you to buy the gold you offered for sale. By not selling, in effect, you just made a good purchase; keep that gold."
© 2010 James J Keene

Market Meditation

2010-05-21T16:09:00.008-04:00

Time to see how much money Independent has made for its readers so far. Call it a market meditation, since the Baha'i writings teach that prayer and meditation are partly an evaluation process -- including self-evaluation. Let us look at how the Independent did on the gold, FAZ and SDS positions discussed and look at pending ideas like gold and silver mining stocks and shorting 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds using TBT.

GOLD
On March 28, our first post on this blog, we urged to "buy gold/silver and take physical possession...ASAP", and elaborated on this concept repeatedly, such as here, here and here.

March 28, Spot Gold per oz: 1105.50
May 21, Spot Gold per oz: $1176.90
6 percent gain

The May 21 price above is after a some $70 sell-off from a recent all-time nominal high for gold. Should gold go lower, and we might even hope, much lower, say $200 to $400 lower, we will be blessed with a great opportunity to buy more at even deeper discount. By the way, if your inventory of anything is a bit larger than you like, be sure to use price highs to sell some and raise cash to buy future dips or use otherwise.

Why would gold or silver go much lower even if one is right that the longer-term trend is up in price for years to come. For one thing, there are too many highly leveraged players out there. When the market goes against any major positions they have, they have to raise cash quickly, and for that purpose, gold and silver holdings are the universal, perhaps most liquid currency that they might have. So when these players are compromised and selling the universal currency are times one hopes for to buy at even greater discount.

FAZ
In a May 3 post, Independent noted that it may be a good time to bet against big banks using FAZ, which is a 3x inverse or shorting instrument which goes up about 3 percent for every 1 percent drop in the indexed big bank stocks. At that time, one could easily acquire FAZ for $12 per share or less.

May 3-4, FAZ: $12.00
May 21, FAZ: 15.1725
26 percent gain

Not bad for about 3 weeks, but if you read the FAZ article, this gain is chicken feed compared to its potential. All one has to do is to recall that the "too-big-to-fail" banks have a huge negative net worth, so if their share prices approach zero, this move would only be part of the way to true value.

With an instrument as volatile as FAZ, which peaked today at 17.91, much higher than its 15.17 close above, if you have excess inventory, use the peaks to sell some. On the other hand, do not be a smarty-pants day-trader, because you want to let your core FAZ position ride, since patience pays and the big money is made by staying with the big moves. One does not want to tinker too much, by selling part of one's desired core position at a price peak, only to find there are no more dips in a desired range since the market runs away to new highs. In that case, premature selling of core position can lead to big losses (via future gains not realized). So sell peaks only when you have excess inventory of a particular instrument; keep the core position.

Note that when big bank stocks get down to a few bucks per share, people tend to buy them as sort of non-expiring call options. Hence, the price only goes to true value of zero where particular banks completely fold and close up shop -- stock-holders get nothing in that case.

FAZ became volatile just after my prediction that "something significant may be imminent", which gets us to SDS.

SDS
On May 6, "Rolling in cash", linked above, noted the nine percent sell-off in the DJIA and S&P500 indexes, more than half of which was packed into less than one half hour in mid-afternoon.

Since then, pundits have wondered why this happened and whether it was fair and such. What happened is clear: buyers pulled their bids or more succinctly, shit happens. Why it happened is also clear: who is going to bid for an asset when price is plunging and other bidders have disappeared. Was it fair? Of course, it was. Owners of over-priced assets would be unfair to expect others to make the same mistake they did, by offering unreasonably high bids for those inflated assets.

Further, things are not right, if one can see through all the distorted government economic statistics which are essentially all lies to promote the illusion that the world has been saved from all previous sins, such as little details like historic levels of unpayable debt. Come on. Lenders don't expect to be repaid ... do they?

Independent also said [emphasis added]:

For DJIA and S&P500 stocks, it is now sell the rallies, which can be done by buying one or more lots at a time of SDS, a 2x short or inverse S&P500 ETF instrument which goes up when those stocks go down.

Like clock-work, we got an unmistakable rally, with the DJIA up some 400 points in one day. From May 10 to May 13, in New York trading, one had four days to sell the rally by buying SDS (or some other way, like selling S&P500 futures). Over those "rally peak" days, there was a SDS price range of 30.06 to 31.62. For the record, let's say one worked into a core SDS position at the mid-point of this range: 30.84 as our average entry price. One now stands here:

May 10-13, SDS, 30.84
May 21, SDS, 34.68
12 percent gain

Not bad for about one week work. And notice how civilized the decline in the stock indexes was. Not a shocking mini-panic packed into ten or fifteen minutes, but rather a nice, sweet, steady decline, the kind of behavior one would want in a dinner guest. About an eight percent decline in seven trading days, something everybody can be happy about, without outcries that the market has gone mad or whatever.

If one does not yet have a full core position in SDS, one will look for more rallies to sell (by buying SDS lots). Maybe next week will see some stock buying or short covering. Seems like a good time for that (depending on news yet to be seen this weekend and beyond). Today's S&P500 close at 1087 is about 16 points below its 200 day simple moving average (at 1103) and people might also be saying, "Let's test 1100".

In any case, we have a nice Friday close below previous closes since the recent high forming a pattern of lower highs and lower lows -- that is, a down-trend signature. Not that we cannot see new yearly highs -- keep in mind that money printing is astronomical and the big banks get first dibs, and stocks is one likely destination for newly minted cash. With this dynamic, higher stock prices can mean much the same thing as higher gold prices, namely that the stock or the gold may not have changed in value, bur rather the dollar has dropped in value or purchasing power.

Anyway, by whatever zig-zag line, the next major stop for the S&P500 is in the 940-950 area which is the bottom of a large up-trend channel and the wave 1 peak of the whole bear market rally starting in March 2009. How dismal is this? Well, it does not look too encouraging that the S&P500 has already taken out the wave 3 peak, the wave 5 peak being the current top on the chart this year.

The question now is: do we get a big bounce at S&P500 940-950 or do we slice through it like it wasn't even there (as a chart price support level)? May we all be blessed with health and happiness until then, so we can see what does in fact happen.

TBT
"Rolling in Cash" also introduced the idea of shorting long-term U.S. Treasuries by buying the TBT ETF. Independent tracks another ETF, TLT, which follows U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities of greater than 20 years. My target to start to ease into a short position was to buy TBT lots when TLT touched or surpassed 100. In the "Rolling in Cash" chaotic day, we came close to the 100 target, and only very briefly.

Presently, when stocks fall, TLT rises (which corresponds to a drop in long-term interest rates). To develop a core position in TBT to benefit from a long bond price drop and eventual collapse, we are in fact looking for a time when stocks and long Treasury bonds are both falling in price. This is a tough call and can't really be predicted all that exactly. All one can do is to tip-toe into a TBT core position at price peaks in TLT. For my part, as implied above, I'm looking to buy TBT lots when TLT spikes above 100, adding incrementally in some hopefully reasonable manner, depending on chart price levels, channels, news at the time, etc. That would add to a minimal (25 percent of) core position in TBT the author initiated on the "Rolling in Cash" day.

Gold and Silver Mining Stocks
Just like gold and silver may be sold off when general stock markets fall significantly, which we expect to happen, the gold and silver mining stocks can do the same, but even more, since they exhibit greater leverage. I already have my favorite list and inventory of many of these stocks, and even bought more today. However, I'm not ready to strongly suggest to readers here to go in that direction yet, with the hope that even lower prices may be seen as the general markets trend lower. Some respected analysts say that none should be bought until much lower prices are seen, since we are nowhere near final lows in general stock markets.

My own compromise in this area is to hold less than desired core positions hoping to buy dips, as I did today, while also selling peaks in several of these gold/silver stocks today also, which had good news causing their prices to spike higher, even though today was a down day for gold stocks generally.

This article is informational, not investment advice.
© 2010 James J Keene

Suspend Elections Now

2010-05-21T08:03:00.005-04:00

"Suspend elections now" may be the outgoing order awaiting a "send" mouse click on computers at the Rothschild-led cabal headquarters. What other choice do they have?

The illuminist cabal plan to gain further control and wealth is thought to be very simple -- destroy freedom and economic activity in North America and Europe. Why? To buy assets at super-cheap prices and to gain further control of the populace by relentlessly moving governments in a fascist direction.

On the other hand, at least in the United States, the cabal may have a significant problem. Freedom fighter candidates are being elected and worst, the population, which should be ignorant and at home watching big screens, is waking up to how the game is being played, as represented, for example, by the Tea Party movement.

In more normal times, the illuminists have bought off both major political parties -- Democrats and Republicans, so they do not care which is elected. Election winners on each side are easily corruptible, if that was not already in the bag through campaign contributions.

The possible thorn that may upset plans of the top world-class power brokers is that the Tea Party people are just too peaceful. Could it be that the Gandhi and Martin Luther King concept of peaceful social protest and change is actually working to thwart cabal plans? Tension among U.S. States is consistent with cabal objectives -- more chaos helps them achieve economic and political domination.

If so, look for suspension of elections for federal Congressional posts in the United States. Instead of the work-horse cabal method of violence, American freedom fighters are using "throw the bums out" elections as the bazooka in their methods kit, along with peaceful protest.

So clearly, fans of the totalitarians will be staging violent events to discredit the peaceful resistance movement and possibly, to justify wholesale arrests and confinement of freedom leaders. However, something tells me that this sort of counter-measure will not be particularly effective -- people will see through it.

The only remaining way to disarm the American freedom fighters is suspension of elections. Before the November elections in the United States, some major violence will need to be manufactured if necessary. Say, violent agitators planted in Tea Party rallies. Maybe an assassination or two, even of far left workers for the cabal itself. Be advised. If you wear a left-wing mask to cover your work for the illuminists, you are expendable.
© 2010 James J Keene

She's Got Legs

2010-05-19T21:02:00.012-04:00

L.A. Mayor Dismisses Warning That Arizona Could Cut Off Power Over Boycott by Judson Berger FOXNews.com

Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa on Wednesday defiantly rejected a warning by a top Arizona utilities official that the state could cut off power to Los Angeles should the city proceed with its boycott of all things Arizona.

She's got legs, she knows how to use them (ZZ Top)
Yes, folks, Arizona's got legs, and she knows how to use them. A story is said to have "legs" when it keeps going and going like the EverReady battery Rabbit.

Arizona is now known as Kidnapping Capital, thanks mostly to illegal aliens trying to make a little money to send home, picking people, not grapes, for ransom. Everybody in Los Angeles knows that it is quite natural for criminals to kidnap people for ransom, since grapes don't grow well in Arizona.

This story is not really about immigration, kidnapping, racism, discrimination, illegal aliens or law enforcement in Arizona. People can talk themselves blue about all these and never touch the underlying plot. The Arizona story is about fear of freedom by the shadow power elite.

Arizona crossed the top-most power brokers -- the ones who demand control of every aspect of life. Arizona dared to stand up for its rights as a State and for the freedom and security of its people. That is the Number 1 No-No of the elitist bosses, who therefore immediately sent their lackeys out in force against Arizona. If we zoom back, the yet again bigger picture is that the present Arizona "Grand Canyon Blues" is one more sign of a potential for breakup of the United States (e.g., Texas also has too much independent free thought).

In short, immigration, aliens, race, police and the rest are all background noise. Arizona is about a rebellion against the most ruthless power brokers on earth, who will use any means necessary to assert their control.

Perhaps the top worker drone for the boss oligarchy is the President. No doubt on orders, he immediately announced, in effect, that the full force of the United States federal government would be unleashed against Arizona to quell their quest for freedom. Within hours, other federal officials quickly parroted this line. At least we know, the U.S. government, as a subsidiary of the super-wealthy illuminists, can take orders.

Can we blame President Obama? Not really. On Obama's day one, his handlers must have presented a deal he couldn't refuse: play ball with us and be wealthy or get dead, like John F Kennedy, who tried to cut out the criminal banking cartel of the bosses by issuing money directly from the U.S. Treasury (by-passing the Federal Reserve owned by the power elite). Only a few months later, JFK was dead.

She only lets you wonder how to feel them (ZZ Top)

Spokesman David Beltran told Fox News that the message didn't even warrant a response.

"We're not going to respond to threats from a state which has isolated itself from the America that values freedom, liberty and basic human rights," Beltran said.

That was after Gary Pierce, a commissioner on the five-member Arizona Corporation Commission, wrote a letter to Villaraigosa slamming his City Council's decision to boycott the Grand Canyon State -- in protest of its immigration law -- by suspending official travel there and ending future contracts with state businesses.

Noting that a quarter of Los Angeles' electricity comes from Arizona power plants, Pierce threatened to pull the plug if the City Council does not reconsider.

Will Arizona be allowed to screw up illuminist plans? At present, it looks like all the stops are being pulled to hit Arizona with a sledge hammer. And with even greater urgency, since other States are pondering laws like the Arizona one.

Even pathetic little parasites, like the LA Mayor and as far away as Ohio and Seattle, working for the upper-level bosses, are following the dictated script. I like this story. Things are happening. Issues will be clarified for all to see. It may be too good to be true. Want to know who works for the wicked elite cabal? Just make your list from the Arizona bashers. For example, jot down the President of Mexico on your cabal front-men list.

No matter that some 60 percent of Americans approve of the Arizona law. The fascists could not care less about what the majority of Americans want or about crime victims in Arizona or anywhere else. In fact, the public support across the nation alarms the shadow elitists and their leftist enforcers, who fear independence, self-sufficiency, freedom, faith, belief in God, all those things that empower people to resist these power-hungry, unscrupulous authoritarians.

No matter that Los Angeles is a city in the State of California, which is so corrupt they steal money on deposit (e.g., tax refunds) from their own citizens. It's not about who is most righteous. It is about a rebellion against federal authority as proxy for the international power brokers.

Notice how the leftist totalitarians invert the story, putting it upside-down -- that it is they who stand for "freedom, liberty and basic human rights", when in fact their known techniques include theft, planting violent agitators in crowds and complete disregard for human welfare, to achieve their goals of master control ... yes, by any means necessary.

She's got hair down to her fanny (ZZ Top)

"If an economic boycott is truly what you desire, I will be happy to encourage Arizona utilities to renegotiate your power agreements so Los Angeles no longer receives any power from Arizona-based generation."

Appearing to tap into local frustration in Arizona over the raft of boycotts and threatened boycotts from cities across the country, including Los Angeles, Pierce warned that Arizona companies are willing and ready to fight boycott with boycott.

"I am confident that Arizona's utilities would be happy to take those electrons off your hands," Pierce wrote. "If, however, you find that the City Council lacks the strength of its convictions to turn off the lights in Los Angeles and boycott Arizona power, please reconsider the wisdom of attempting to harm Arizona's economy."

Horrors! Somebody with guts. In seems guts, back-bone and courage are in good supply in Arizona and many other States these days.

Will the roach LA Mayor have to slither back into his crevice? Maybe a little darkness in LA is not such a bad idea. The big boss illuminists must be somewhat rattled. California, the State that has been robbing money by the billions that it has borrowed with full knowledge that it could not repay (i.e., fraud), now looks like a circus full of clowns, whereas Arizona looks like a battle-hardened freedom fighter gaining respect across the nation. We are treated to a real cliff-hanger here. Somebody, please, make some popcorn.

Every time she's dancin' she knows what to do (ZZ Top)

Despite that, the Los Angeles City Council voted overwhelmingly last week to ban future business with Arizona -- a decision that could cost Arizona millions of dollars in lost contracts.

Los Angeles officials were furious with the Arizona immigration law passed last month and joined local officials in cities across the country in pushing boycotts to register their dismay. Critics say the law will lead to racial profiling and civil rights abuses.

Arizona officials have defended the law, saying the state needed to take its illegal immigration problem into its own hands.

You think? The clowns in the Los Angeles circus could not care less about the safety and prosperity of Arizona, or anyone else. They just have a dog and pony show... maybe in the dark. Let the darkness inside their heads power light in the freedom movement.

She never begs, she knows how to choose them (ZZ Top)
So much of the daily news is depressing stuff. This is just a breath of fresh air. A propitious twist in a thickening plot.

It may be significant that the totalitarians cannot come up with a better script -- "will lead to racial profiling and civil rights abuses." Any enforcement of any law can do that. Duh. Come on. Can't think of anything better than that? Observers of this fiasco of baseless and outright persecution of innocent Americans in Arizona have to be encouraged that the mask of the evil-doers is coming off.

Scoreboard: One point for empowerment of the little guys (as in Arizona); zero for the illuminists.

Exactly how far into foolishness and theatre of the absurd do opponents of freedom like Mr. Los Angeles "Race Card" Mayor have to go, before reporters laugh out loud when they speak? The more the left-wing fascists embarrass themselves, the stronger the freedom movement in the U.S. becomes.
© 2010 James J Keene